Lost our Run Line play on the Cardinals yesterday, as the bullpen gagged away a 7-4 lead with one out in the ninth inning. They held on for a 7-6 win, which did no good for us. I figured Wainwright would go at least seven innings and turn a multi-run lead over to the bullpen. At that point, we'd have at least one run to play with. That's how it played out. More often than not, the pen will do enough to hang on by at least two runs in that situation. I guess it just wasn't meant to be this time.
My personal preference is to always bet the ML & not bet the -1.5 RL with a total as low as 7, as I mentioned in the analysis. In this case, given the info I gathered, I felt St. Louis would win the game seven out of every ten times they played it. That implies a money line of -233, so I saw substantial value in taking the Cards -190 or even -200. Normally, if I perceive there to be at least 20 cents in value, I'm making that bet. But in this business, one gets slammed for releasing plays with a line that high. After all, "anybody can do that." Sure, anybody can bet big chalk in MLB, but can everyone win over the long haul like that? No, but I've proven I do & I'm comfortable betting that way. In the future, I'll likely recommend a split wager (half ML / half RL) for those with a fear of high-juice bets. But I will clearly note exactly how I bet the play.
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Thanks for stopping by & best of luck.
DB