Dave- some enlightening handicapping tips I found over at covers-
Firstly, betting big favorites has been a PROFITABLE strategy in MLB---
Since 2014 betting favorites of -180 or higher has resulted in:
2014 +21 units
2015 +42.77 units
2016 +31.43 units
2017 +25.95 units already
Secondly, it seems that the markets haven't adjusted totals to reflect a shrinking strike zone and perhaps a juiced baseball?-
Going into Monday, overs are hitting at a 55.8% clip for the season while in the last 8 days, overs are 67.6%.
FIP is at it's highest since 2009.
Average team WHIP is at it's highest since 2010 and walks per nine innings highest since 2009.
The totals work in well with your strategy of betting almost exclusively overs- I think the markets will be slow to adjust. But perhaps you could incorporate some bigger chalk into your picks maybe mix them into ml parlays? And if we can grab the big chalk early before the line steams we can get an even higher ROI. Thanks and good luck.