Cubswin1227 said:
Hi Dave - are you doing an all access package for your picks today...yesterday's info was outstanding. Thanks!
Tennessee-UMass: The Vols are where the money seems to be. UMass did struggle down the stretch, and I wonder how much that last home loss at the buzzer to St. Louis might have effected them going forward. I'd STILL have to think about Umass simply based on the rest they've had (it didn't help Colorado, however) and the fact that UT play an OT game against a quick team two nights ago.
Coastal Carolina-UVA-I doubt I would touch this game with anyone's money. If I saw a total of 120 or so and a line of 20+ I would take the points every single time. CC will want to play quicker, but that could lead to more UVA points given the turnovers they'll probably commit. However, perhaps UVA scores ENOUGH and CC gets some late against the 9-12th men and the game goes over?
G-Wash-Memphis: I know the money appears to be on the Tigers, but I have leaned G-Wash since the line came out. I just like the way they are playing. G-Wash has a length advantage, and I simply won't take a 65% FT shooting team (Memphis) unless there are no choices. In this game there are.
EKY-Kansas: Not laying these points, either. EKY can score with anyone and is very experienced, AND played some elite teams in non-conference play. I do know that they don't play a ton of defense, but a team that's going to jack 3's all night against a team that's NOT the best perimeter defense AND super young is a problem for me. If EKY makes a few early and makes Kansas have to think, they can stay inside of the two touchdowns.
K-State-Kentucky: Kentucky seems to be where the most money is at the moment, but it's hard not to think K-State gives them issues defensively. Shoot, South Carolina did. The best play here IMO is the under. I DO think K-State keeps them from completely going off, and we know K-State can struggle to score against even average defenses.
ULL-Creighton: This is one game it seems like people are betting because they think they have to. They're not grabbing the points, and the lines' been pretty stable. ULL plays quick and can shoot, so inasmuch as I don't normally like OVER this many points, I can see more scencarios where it does go over than doesn't. Almost no matter what the score is, simply because ULL plays so fast and Creighton will score and score and score, IMO.
Providence-UNC: I've been waiting for UNC's bubble to burst for a few weeks and it hasn't happened. We made a lot of money on the Friars this season, and honeslty given the amount of times they get to the line AND the fact that they shoot 78% or so from the stripe, I'd almost take them no matter what. I know what I am getting with Providence, and UNC is capable of implosion (or explosion) at any time.
NC Central-ISU: NC Central is, as they say in Boston, "a wicked shahp" play. Another team with tons of experience and ISU is simply not that much bigger. Yes, they will run, but NC Central has one of the better "little known" defenses there is. They played Cincinnati, Witchita State, and Maryland, all on the road, so playing ISU in Texas is no big deal. Central is actually a better offensive rebounding team (most teams like ISU that run and shoot are not anyways) so if ISU is off at all that will give Central an even better chance to dictate this pace to some extent.
Tulsa-UCLA: I have no real strong opinion on this game, but if the total is going up one would think that would favor the Bruins. And, so far, people have not lined up to take Tulsa. Number is probably pretty close, IMO, but that IS a ton of points to go over, so I actually lean under a bit.
Gonzaga-Oklahoma State: I do know that there are sharp people and a lot of tickets on the Cowboys, and I take nothing away from the reasoning behind it, so they may well be right. However, stats and Smart aside, if you give me the choice of the bigger and more experienced team getting points I might have to take them. Gonzaga should own the glass at both ends, and the only thing that would concern me is that OSU gets to the line a ton. All those late-season games they won were at HOME or on the road against TCU. PERHAPS a little TOO much love for them.