I have had an idea about sports betting as a business.
It’s all based around financial leverage and having a sufficient bank roll. I’ve not been around sports betting long enough to verify if it would work and as such I’m hoping that some people on here can correct me if I am wrong in some of my assumptions.
First of all let’s set the parameters.
Assuming a 100K bank roll to start the year.
1 unit is a 1K bet.
If we assume that; ‘in the long run’ the ‘pre game pros’ who sell their picks are profitable, if not, then surely no one would buy their picks. So they are at least at 55%. Which from what I have learned, means that you can make all the money you want to make, you just have to scale up your betting amount.
Because we vary our bets size based on our conviction, there could be a variety of financial outcomes based on a 55% win rate. But for the sake of simplicity lets assume that after a year of following all of the picks provided by a pro, we might be up 30 units.
With this being the case, then we end the year with 130K. If we take a year worth of picks as a cost of 2K and we consider that our ‘cost of sales’, then we are in profit to the tune of 28K.
In this scenario we are simply outsourcing the work to the ‘picker’ and we really only have to place the wager ourselves.
If you have a 100K bank roll then essentially we’re actually not having to work very hard for that 28K.
Does anyone out there approach their betting in this way?
Am I missing something?
Thanks in advance.