Point Blank – April 21, 2017
NBA Weekend – The Game Inside the Game…And for those bored with the bounces of round balls, you can begin your NFL Week #1 work now..
We’ve got a busy weekend ahead, with the venues changing for three of the NBA playoff series tonight, and then wall-to-wall bases and baskets over the course of Saturday and Sunday. It means plenty of opportunity, and even those of you who prefer the gridirons can be getting into play, using your time to gear up for NFL draft props, which I will delve into a bit here next week, and also the opening lines for NFL Week #1 of next season, which I posted into yesterday’s thread but will also include as part of the lead today.
Busy cycles and longer reads call for the need of some musical accompaniment, so the jukebox will be plugged in, and remain that way for most spring/summer Fridays. The weekend can also bring you the time to dig in to a long read that all may appreciate, but in particular those that live in our fair valley – “On Las Vegas, the Raiders, and Third-and-11”. One of the positive notions from that piece is that local development once offered me the opportunity to walk about a mile to see Gary Clark Jr., but the downside being that the opportunity was only granted once. So let’s go back to Clark, live from Rock in Rio USA in 2015, with “Ain’t Messin ‘Round” -
Now on to the hardwoods, continuing with “The Game Inside the Game” notion of focusing in on one key aspect of each matchup. I will begin with the five series’ that did not play last night, and then patch in Cavs/Pacers, Raptors/Bucks and Spurs/Grizzlies both to the lead area, and also the on-running thread, after the proper post mortems have been done from Thursday night (and those games do require some extra digging).
BOSTON/CHICAGO – Sans Rondo, what now for the Bulls
There has not been a seismic market shift since the announcement that Rajon Rondo will be out indefinitely with a fractured right thumb just yet. but perhaps there will be. So let’s get into it.
If someone would have offered me a bet at even money earlier this season that I would be offering platitudes to Rondo, while still wearing a Bulls uniform, at playoff time, I would have bet, and lost. Hopefully they would have capped me at a small limit. But a season that begin in such a difficult way for Rondo has turned in rather stunning fashion. With the eyes on the prize of a legitimate playoff run, the things that he does best have now come to the front, and he is with the right cast of characters so that what he is not very good at (shooting) isn’t as important.
The base stats will jump out, because in the era in which the echoes of “triple double” can almost make one nauseas, Rondo is almost there in this series, with 11.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game. How about a nifty 5:1 ratio of assists to turnovers? But to really understand how well, and how hard, he was playing, how about seven steals vs. four turnovers over 67:21 of court time? That is a terrific level of production.
While his knuckleball of an outside shot and attitude were questions in the past, when Rondo locks in he is still one of the savviest players in the sport. Let’s let Dwyane Wade explain it - “I hated him as a competitor. He knew all the plays. We can go to him and ask him questions because he watches film all the time.’’
The Bulls came ever so close to this season being a disaster, and Rondo not getting much chance at all. It finally happened late, almost as much out of desperation as anything else. But there are some interesting pieces to the Chicago puzzle, with Jimmy Butler among the best all-round players in the game; Wade bringing his experience and still productive physical tools; Robin Lopez a presence in the paint; and Nikola Mirotic able to stretch defenses far from their comfort zones. With a chance to play together the skills are far above a usual #8 seed, and there is also that matter of playoff confidence and experience – Wade/Butler/Rondo may genuinely feel that they can beat any team in the East right now (they were 4-0 against the Cavaliers, though LeBron James sat out one of the games and Kyrie Irving/Kevin Love another).
But now what? Just when those pieces were coming together, an important cog now goes missing. On Rondo’s overall production this season the stat folks are not going to read this as being a big deal, but what happened during the regular season, and what happened at Boston over the first 96 minutes of this series, were two entirely different basketball plot lines
HOUSTON/OKC – On Russell Westbrook’s awful Final Act in Game #2, and what happens when the curtain raises tonight
History will record the 51 points, 13 assists and 10 rebounds from Westbrook as being one of the more explosive games ever in the NBA playoffs, and it does rate as the most points scored by a player that had a triple double. It led to headlines across the Sports Mediaverse, including such bold pronouncements as “Westbrook’s Heroics can’t unhinge Rockets” from the local Review-Journal.
In terms of the scoreboard outcome, Westbrook wasn’t a hero. The Thunder may have lost instead because he was trying to be one, along with the foul trouble that prevented Steven Adams from being on the floor about one-third less than planned (though the focus will be on Westbrook here put this in your files – OKC was +18 in the 27:25 that Adams played, but -22 in the 20:35 in which he was only a spectator).
Now for the Westbrook saga. For much of Wednesday night the Thunder were playing good team basketball, led by their catalyst plaing under control, and there was the expected correction on the boards, which they won 48-37. OKC carried a three-point lead into the fourth quarter, and at the time showed reason to believe the Thunder could hold on and knot the series.
First Three Qs FG/FGA Pts Ast
Westbrook 13-25 36 11
Other Thunder 20-43 53 7
And then…
Fourth Quarter FG/FGA Pts Ast
Westbrook 4-18 15 2
Other Thunder 3-11 7 0
Westbrook wasn’t heroic in the final stanza, he was terrible. Some of that can be attributed to both physical/mental fatigue because Billy Donovan gambled on playing him the full stanza, admittedly because OKC was a horrific -15 in the 6:38 Westbrook sat out over the first three quarters. But in taking so many shots Westbrook had a bunch of forces, far too many single-touch possession, and the team chemistry that had been so good earlier in the game collapsed. The other players didn’t know whether to move and get open, or head to the offensive boards for the inevitable Westbrook launch.
The issue heading to Friday is whether the reins can be put back on Westbrook, and also how the rest of the team reacts to a game that got away. Hence why I found this from Adams, who has been a huge supporter of Westbrook, to be of interest - ''We just weren't taking the greatest of shots, and they really capitalized on that. It was a combination of things and our mental stamina needs to be a little better.''
Adams only took three of the 97 shots in the game, making two, yet found a way to include himself in the “we”. That is remarkable diplomacy. Was there a rare public frustration being shown towards the OKC floor leader? That becomes a prime consideration for Game #3– while Houston has weaknesses the chemistry is superb at this stage, Mike D’Antoni having settled the Rockets into a tight eight-player rotation that has been shifting gears seamlessly. The better team, and the better chemistry, taking points brings some attraction, so #717 Houston (9:30 Eastern) has a “go” point out there of +3, which is not quite there in the early Friday markets, but may appear over the course of the day.
LAC/UTAH – Can the Jazz find some open space for Gordon Hayward
The big story in this series, literally, is the absence of Rudy Gobert, which the Clippers could not exploit on the fly in Game #1, somehow getting out-scored 42-40 on points in the paint, but after a couple of days to prep for the new-look Jazz defense it was a major reversal in that category on Tuesday, LAC winning 60-38 in the paint and squaring the series. But there is another key plot line in play that has also been lurking beneath that surface – the defense of Luc Mbah a Moute on Utah leading scorer Gordon Hayward.
There may not be a loud beep from the radar screens when a guy that averaged 21.9 during the regular season opened with 19.5 so far in this series, but that scoring reduction was based on five more minutes per game, plus a lot of shots, and during the regular season it was also nearly a 2:1 ratio in assists to turnovers for Hayward (252-140) -
Minutes 78:50
FG 12-33
Points 39
Assists 5
TOs 6
+/- -10
Doc Rivers believes that Mbah a Moute is such a good defensive counter for Hayward that the minutes nearly mirrored on Tuesday night, Hayward only having 47 seconds when his LAC nemesis was not on the court. From Rivers - “Luc was terrific. He just does so many things. Hayward’s one of those guys that you can’t get to. You’re not going to get to him. You’re not going to make him not want to play against you and play hard. You’ve got to show up each night and turn into that game and that individual game and be ready to play him.”
One of the talking points I brought up at the start of this series were issues of Utah chemistry, becaue so many of the key cogs have missed playing time. Can this also impact their ability to create some openings for a scorer that they need to carry a load, especially against one of the NBA’s better defenders at the position?
WASHINGTON/ATLANTA – And what about the plight of Dwight
Gee, Dwight Howard has become an issue for a basketball franchise. But this time it is not about attitude – in general he has been a good citizen and has played hard for the Hawks this season. The issue is that in terms of matching up against the Wizards, Mike Budenholzer is facing a conundrum as the series shifts to Atlanta.
Let’s lay it out rather simply here – while Howard had scored 13 points and pulled 21 rebounds in his 48:57 of court time, the Hawks have seemingly been a more effective team through the first two games when he has been on the bench -
Minutes +/-
Howard In 48:57 -16
Howard Out 47:03 +1
Now the conundrum - I only get a “seemingly” out of that because one of the Washington issues is an uninspiring bench cast, and part of the Howard comparisons stem from the fact that he is almost always out there vs. the Wizards front line. So let’s take a look at the Washington reserves through the first two games –
Minutes +/-
Smith 40:43 -20
Bogdanovic 35:42 -9
Oubre 32:04 -26
Jennings 31:41 -7
Is it really that the Hawks have been better with Howard out, or that Howard’s minutes on the bench have mostly come when the Wizards have been at their weakest? I am not sure that they themselves know the answer.
Howard did not play at all in the fourth quarter of Game #2, and if you listen to the explanations, you get a feel for what both Budenholzer and one of his key players believed at the time. First from the HC - “It spreads the court more. It gets more ball-handlers, more guys who can get to the paint.”
Now Paul Millsap - “It’s simple. Our small ball is better than theirs. We think we play small ball better than anybody in the league. That is one of our better lineups. We can push the tempo. Get up and down the court. I think we have taken advantage of that.”
Except what happened in that final stanza on Wednesday, with Howard reduced to being a spectator, was that the Wizards rolled 35-23, after trailing 78-74 at the end of the third quarter. The Atlanta defense had one steal and no blocked shots over that time, Washington scoring with ease on 14-21 from the field, including seven assists vs. only one turnover. The gap could have been worse, but the Hawks were 9-9 at the FT line over the final 12 minutes, while the Wizards were just 5-9.
Instead of improving his team’s chances of winning by not playing Howard in the fourth quarter of Game #2, did Budenholzer instead weaken them? And what does that outcome mean to his rotation for Saturday? There is a lot to see here, but the answers may not be made available for speculative financial purposes until the In-Running wagering takes place.
GOLDEN STATE/PORTLAND – Might we see NBA Finals energy from Lillard/McCollum
There hasn’t been much question of the Trail Blazers being out-matched in this one, with it taking all of that offensive brilliance from Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to stay connected as long as they did in the opener on Sunday. The pendulums of basketball and the Golden State defense, brought that duo back to earth in Game #2, and the comparisons are so stunning that they merit a table, the combined production from the Portland back-court starters –
FG 3-pt Pts Ast TO
Game #1 28-54 7-15 75 4 7
Game #2 9-26 1-7 23 2 7
That is a rather remarkable swing. Of course one of the alarming elements from Game #1 was the assist/turnover count, and that shows why the Trail Blazers won’t compete to win the series – it isn’t that Lillard/McCollum are that ridiculously selfish; the rest of the roster just doesn’t offer players that you can get many dishes to.
Here is what matters for Game #3. Lillard/McCollum can be expected to bring a tremendous energy, and each of them will only be playing their third game in two full weeks, neither getting to a full 30:00 on Wednesday. I don’t believe to a man anyone on the Portland team still thinks, or perhaps ever thought, that they can win this series, but I do believe there is a mindset that winning a single game absolutely does matter.
While injuries indeed played a major part, Portland was 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in home playoff games last season, some folks charting it as 4-1 ATS because the only SU loss came in OT, 132-125 vs. the Warriors, who closed at -6 (as always, I track the ATS outcomes based on the regulation scoreboard). In one of those wins the Blazers beat a Golden State team without Steph Curry, and in another the Clippers didn’t have Chris Paul or Blake Griffin. But it still means a high level of confidence will be there for a team with a pair of high-energy catalysts that can turn that energy into production.
Expect to see more fight than usual for a team down 0-2 that has been bounced by 41 points, but I will not be reaching for the pocket until there is more clarification on Durant/Livingston/Barnes/Nurkic.
TORONTO/MILWAUKEE – Is there any need to run on at length about the Bucks length
There is no hint of Zig Zag to Raptors/Bucks Game #4 on the betting boards, despite large segments of the market preferring to back higher-seeded teams off of a loss (of course that particular audience is not in play on this game yet, and won’t be until tomorrow morning). And perhaps there shouldn’t be – that was a thorough basketball beat-down in Milwaukee last night, and it will not be all that easy for Toronto to correct. Between the end of Game #3 and the tipoff of Game #4, the Raptors will not get any taller, nor will the Bucks shrink.
As noted in the Thursday prelude, understanding the Toronto offense is not easy because common statistics are defied. The Raptors score at a high level of efficiency based on one-on-one forays from DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry late in the shot clocks, two of the NBA’s best at converting those settings. Hence they get far better production than their assist totals indicate that they should. But in this series both DeRozan and Lowry are running into long and athletic defenders that are taking away what they do best.
Toronto is scoring at a 95.4 PP100 through the first three games, and that is shaded to the positive a bit from 31 points in a garbage fourth quarter on Thursday. For perspective, the worst offense this season was at 100.7 (76ers), and the best defense at 101.1 (Warriors). Now for the DeRozan/Lowry components:
FG 3-pt Pts
DeRozan 16-47 0-5 58
Lowry 12-33 4-16 39
It isn’t easy turning that around. You can go back to the Tuesday edition for details on Lowry going up against Malcom Brogdon, and last night DeRozan suffered the embarrassment of an 0-8 from the field vs. the athletic Milwaukee front-court, which also threw the rest of his game out of sync – DeRozan only managed two rebounds, with three turnovers vs. zero assists, over 30:44 of basketball futility.
Now the problem going forward – Toronto may not be geared towards adapting. The starting lineup on Thursday had the hideous count of 10 turnovers vs. only two assists, which showed their struggle to create. In the opener, which they lost 97-83, eight of the 15 Raptors assists came from the bench cast. Let’s set some perspective through three games -
Minutes Assists
TOR starters 432:27 24
TOR reserves 287:33 26
The Raptors starting offense is not designed to break defenses down through ball movement to create open shots, but instead the one-on-one actions of two good scorers. Those scorers are running into an athletic wall in this series that isn’t going away, and might even get tougher as the Bucks grow in confidence.
SAN ANTONIO/MEMPHIS – Was Thursday merely a plot twist, or the genuine building of momentum by the Grizzlies (since the first peach basket, winning at the #1 and #5 spots has put a team in the hunt)
It would be easy to dismiss the Memphis win on Thursday as one of those classic sports settings in which a team with their backs to the wall responded, the tirade of David Fizdale setting the stage. But there are also some realities in play that make this series far more interesting now than those the early stages in San Antonio.
One of the prime notions brought into play on these pages from the start was the potential weakness for the Spurs at PG, which could be exploited by Mike Conley. Since Conley’s court time closely mirrored Tony Parker/Patty Mills combined, here is the Game #3 breakdown –
Min FG Pts Ast TO +/-
Conley 34:02 7-13 24 8 2 +20
Parker/Mills 40:46 4-12 11 1 3 -22
Yes, the Spurs play tremendous team offense, which brings them ways to work around those issues at PG much of the time. But one assist? And they are not going to face anything but A level players at that position the rest of these playoffs, which means some challenging workarounds for Pops.
Also note that the terrific team schemes, aided of course by Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green being among the best defenders in the NBA at their positions, also hides the fact that they are nothing special at the #5. Hence Marc Gasol is averaging 21.7 ppg in the series, while also dealing 2.7 assists.
Yes, the NBA has become a perimeter league in this modern era, and things are certainly changing. But once upon a time if you won the matchups at point guard and center it went a long way towards winning games. San Antonio will play much better on Saturday, but bouncing back is anything but automatic – the Spurs won the boards 42-33, shot 47.2 percent from the field and made 10-24 triples in Game #3, and lost in double figures anyway. There are some genuine matchup issues they have to overcome here, now that the Grizzlies have been able to get some confidence.
CLEVELAND/INDIANA – What now for Tyronn Lue and that Cavs defense
To rally from a 26-point deficit on the road and win a playoff game should be a moment of euphoria for the Cavaliers, especially since that much-maligned defense played such a major role down the stretch. And LeBron James showed why he remains the best player in the sport, regardless of the statistical profiles that others compiled this season, with 41 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. But…
There is a bit of a problem. This was not the Cleveland starting cast stepping up and making those defensive plays, but instead the game turning largely because it was NOT the starting cast out there. Notice any plays being made in the fourth quarter by Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love?
Departure Score Return
Irving 4:17 3rd IND 87-69 No
Love 2:29 3rd IND 87-74 No
Oops. The Cavaliers picked up a valuable win; instead of the series going to 2-1, and the Pacers bringing the energy to legitimately turn it into something, now it is 3-0, and there is the historical notion coming into play that the underdog may not bring much fight on Sunday. That happens to 0-3 teams, who realize how daunting the prospect is of turning the series around.
But what about the confidence of Irving/Love, who combined to shoot 8-29 in Game #3, and the chemistry of the defense? The Cavaliers are allowing 114.7 PP100 in this series, and for perspective on that it is a full four points worse than the 110.6 the Lakers gave up to finish at the bottom this season. It is also far above the scoring rate the Pacers played at during the regular season, when a 106.2 put them in the middle of the pack at #15.
I believe one of the key elements for Cleveland in this series was not just to win, but to also establish a defensive identity that will be needed as the challenges become greater in later rounds. While Lue and the Cavaliers got a win last night that looks good from some vantage points, might they genuinely have taken a step backwards on defense?
Item: And if you just can't wait for football to return...
Now for folks that want to think football for a moment (and for those that want to go back through the Thursday thread, Sharp Sider is already on the case) –
In the Sights, Sunday NBA…
Despite the absence of Blake Griffin the markets are running the Game #4 Total higher in Salt Lake City than the closer for #3, which shows the influence of the 111-106 Friday scoreboard, but that needs to be taken with a major grain of salt – the game played to an extremely low 89.1 Pace (Toronto/Milwaukee Game #4 was a blazing 96.7 by comparison), but got to a high plateau because of the unlikely 53.7 percent shooting from the two teams combined, plus 14 points in the final minute when it became scramble time. I see the Sunday pace potentially being even slower, and an offensive regression from at least one side of the equation, so it will be #515 LA Clippers Team Total Under (9:00 eastern), with 98 readily available in the morning trading.
While the Clippers executed well without Griffin on in Game #3, that was what can often happen on the fly inside of a game, when the opponent has not had the opportunity to tweak their defense. And because LAC is accustomed to playing without Griffin, it was nothing all that new on their part. But so much of that also came from Chris Paul picking up the scoring load in a major way (34 points in 36:14), and that is difficult to maintain against a Utah defense that has guys that can guard on the perimeter (George Hill was #6 in Real +/- defense of PGs that played at least 20 minutes per game). The truth is that Doc Rivers just doesn’t have a lot of options at the #4, and that almost of all them will cause an offense to slow down, rather than speed up. Meanwhile J.J. Redick continues to be bothered by the length of Joe Ingles, which is making it difficult for him to get untracked, so I will project a difficult evening for the Clippers to be either quick, or efficient on offense.
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