Point Blank – December 27, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #16A…What the final Sunday means to those who will be back out at practice next week…
Because there is so much ground to cover I am going to split the NFL review into two [arts this week, so that none of the dynamics get short shrift – there are sub-plots galore as we head to the final board of the regular season. This is a week in which power ratings and statistics mean less than at any other time, the key measuring point the needle on the fuel gauge for some, and the gear that the coaches have shifted into for many of the others.
Today I’ll start with the teams still alive in the playoff hunt, and what may be foremost on their minds as they prepare not just to play this Sunday, but to also be at their best in the post-season. It is far different this season than many past campaigns, with many new faces in the mix, including some interesting scrambling at the QB position. That means a lot of work to get to. And now that I am back at the Las Vegas desk again we can get the jukebox plugged in. It is fitting to do a George Michael tribute this week, though you need not fear it being any of the early career stuff. Today the focus foes towards his development as a songwriter and musical craftsman, allowing for a rather easy connection – Praying for Time is exactly what Adam Gase, Bill O’Brien and Jack Del Rio might want to be doing right now. This one was live from the Royal Albert Hall in 2011 -
Item: The standings-based “need” is minimal this week
Sub-Item: But there are a whole lot of other needs afloat
There are only a small handful of games that actually impact the playoff seedings and matchups this week - there are 10 teams that know their seasons will extend and three that know that a win gets them in (with a slight * next to Washington, which I will get to in a moment). But as noted in some of the thread discussions last week, it is not just about playoff positioning for the teams, but also a focus on how they can best develop across the remaining practice time/game time that is left. That particularly matters with some new teams in the mix. So for ease of organization, I will start setting the key storylines now, so that the day-by-day reading can be the most efficient, going alphabetically by conference –
AFC
HOUSTON – You will read and hear form the Sports Mediaverse that The Texans have nothing to play for this week, already being locked into the #4 seed. I would not buy into that notion. The offense is a long way from being playoff-ready, so Bill O’Brien’s optimal move is to prepare Tom Savage for this week as though it was a playoff game. That could also impact the decision making on Lamar Miller – instead of getting another week off to get back to full health, he may be on the field at Tennessee so that the offense can better function as a unit.
O’Brien’s take - "I think anytime you line up, you play to win. I think that's what we're all about here with the Houston Texans. I think it's important to win anytime you play, in this case on Sunday. We'll be smart about it, we're going to go out there and do everything we can against a difficult opponent. We're going to go out there and play to win the game.”
And then there is the defense. I brought that group to the lead on Friday noting that while their rating on my charts, and those of the Football Outsiders, show them to be a bit above average, they lead the NFL for fewest yards allowed. That measurement is not ordinarily of great importance, but it is how the official league statistics rate the “#1 Defense”, and the Houston players have been open in terms of what that means to them. That group also needs some playing time as a unit before the playoffs begin, with Whitney Mercilus, Jonathan Joseph and John Simon all returning from injuries vs. the Bengals. Will maintaining that #1 rating be a part of the consciousness of the Houston coaching staff this week? I believe so, and I will be revisiting that notion as the player rotations get set.
KANSAS CITY – The Chiefs take the field with an opportunity to be the #2 seed, should they win and the Raiders lose at Denver. Since an Oakland loss would not be a shock without Derek Carr, this is a full prep week for Andy Reid and his staff, which means treating this game like it was a playoff affair.
MIAMI - This is not an easy week for Adam Gase. The Dolphins will play a road playoff game next week no matter what the outcomes are, but there is a major difference between the options – a win over the Patriots could mean a trip to Houston instead of Pittsburgh, should Kansas City also lose. Like O’Brien, Gase also would like to have more time to get his QB playoff-ready; Matt Moore has played well in replacing Ryan Tannehill, but will still go into the post-season with only three starts under his belt.
Now the problem – the defense has a lot of injured components right now, with already-thinned groups at DB (Reshad Jones out for the season) and LB (Koa Misi on IR) now having to deal with Byron Maxwell and Isa Abdul-Quddus being question marks in the secondary, and Jelani Jenkins dealing with a knee injury at LB. What the Dolphins do with that defensive depth chart will be something to watch, especially after that unit was on the field for 90 plays at Buffalo.
NEW ENGLAND - It could not be more simple for the Patriots: a win clinches the top seed in the AFC throughout the playoffs. Bill Belichick has been here before and knows the drill, not just in terms of handling his team, but also in deftly addressing the questions that surround such weeks. He was at his acerbic best on Monday when asked if any players would be rested this week -
"Yeah, I mean, look, I don't really understand that question. We have, I don't know how many starters we have, but we have a lot more than we ... we can only inactivate seven players. So this isn't like a preseason game where you have 75 guys on your roster. It's a regular-season game. So I don't really understand that whole line of questioning. I'm not saying I'm a great mathematician or anything, but the numbers just don't add up for that type of conversation."
OAKLAND – The Raiders will take the field with the opportunity to wrap up the AFC West and at least the #2 seed, and possibly even the #1 if the Patriots lost at Miami. That naturally means a prime focus, and there is also the developmental rush taking place with the offense, tweaking things for Matt McGloin, which is one of the prime subplots of the week.
This one will be a fascinating case study because while McGloin brings limitations to the QB position, he will have three Pro Bowl OL in front of him, the dynamic tandem of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out wide, and a deep group of RBs, that have shown ability both carrying the ball and catching it. And in this second season in Oakland it is once again the opportunity for Jack Del Rio to focus on building out his program, trying to lay the best possible foundation going forward. As such you can also file this away for notions of his processes -
“It’s a tough game. Things happen in this game. It’s all about the team. It’s all about us moving on with the next opportunity and pulling together as a group of men and being unselfish and sacrificing for each other. It doesn’t change. It doesn’t change regardless of who it is. It’s about the team. It’s about us winning. That’s not in any way meant to be insensitive. You always show love and appreciation for anybody who was banged up, but the team does carry on. That’s what we do.”
PITTSBURGH – The Steelers have precious little going on this week, having been locked in to the #3 seed regardless of any outcomes. Because this is a veteran group that doesn’t need much more work, but could use a little rest, this essentially becomes the bye for them that a #1 or #2 seed would get the following weekend. I don’t expect to see Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell or Antonio Brown take the field on offense, and would not be surprised if at least James Harrison got the week off defensively.
Hence, a scramble being thrown in on one of the side elements of our endeavor – after holding back the Steelers as the final piece of the Suviror Pool puzzle the circumstances of the past couple of weeks have removed what could have been a great position, Pittsburgh needing the game and being favored in double figures, to one in which the search has been opened up. As such I will move the Survivor Pool take form Wednesday to Thursday this week, to allow for a deeper dive across the league.
NFC
ATLANTA – The picture is clear for the Falcons: beat the Saints and they lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, and earn a bye. Dan Quinn has already been direct and to the point - “It’s all out there for us. We are going to battle for it in every way that we can against New Orleans. We know there is an opportunity for us there and we are going to go for it in the biggest way that we can.”
DALLAS – There will be a lot to follow here. The Cowboys have put themselves into the position of having back-to-back bye weeks, should that be their choice, and if I was in charge I would use this week to get Tony Romo some playing time at QB, something that could prove to be invaluable should Dak Prescott get injured in the playoffs. And while I would have Ezekial Elliott out there for a bit to stay in playing rhythm, not wanting him to sit out for two weeks, there is almost no chance I would have him on the field in the second half at Philadelphia. But I’m not Jerry Jones.
Jones has already taken the lead on setting this week’s stage, and that stage calls for Prescott to be playing the lead - “We’re just not concerned about him (Romo) having play time, but sure wouldn’t want him to get any time other than playing behind our first. …Dak is gaining on it. That game out there tonight made Dak a better quarterback. He played very well. He really made some good decisions. You don’t want to mess up those reps. For him to have played like he played against Detroit, I think he’s a better quarterback. At this stage, he’s just gaining on it. So you make a big case for him to play against Philadelphia to be a better quarterback for the playoffs.”
?“We’ve got the book on Tony. We’re seeing him work at practice, and that’s enough. …We have a real good feel. We have a very good feel for how he could do. Romo, not to play him, we don’t feel like that any gain we’d get from him stepping out there and running a few plays or a series of plays or several plays would be worth the risk.”
?Where the Cowboys do have some issues are injuries on defense, but for now pencil the game vs. the Eagles as one of the most difficult prices to set on this week’s board.
DETROIT/GREEN BAY – I will combine these two because the motivations are the same; the winner gets the NFC North, the loser is either out of the playoffs completely, if Washington has won earlier in the day, or the final NFC Wild Card team. Of course, there is also the notion of a tie game, which I will save for the Redskins in a moment.
There is already a plot twist in play in building a handicap for the matchup, the Packers getting the benefit of two added preparation days. This may particularly matter because the Green Bay bye was back on October 2, so the Packers have been going through a rather sustained slog. Mike McCarthy will set the stage this week by not having his players back on the practice field until Wednesday -
“I love it today. It was a challenge on the front side of it. Any time you get into those six-day weeks and things like that this late in the season it’s obviously a pull. And I just go off what our own personal experience has been playing 10 straight games, coming out of a Thursday night game against Chicago. That’s a grind. That’s the first time we’ve had to do that. That makes a big difference. We made it through. Having the extra day will benefit us, I hope. We’re going to use it, that’s for sure and really just focus on the mental aspect of it and get ready for the Lions.”
NY GIANTS - The Giants are locked in to the #5 seed in the NFC regardless of the Sunday outcomes, but can’t do any look-ahead prep, with there being prospects of playing at Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay or Seattle. While there is the obvious temptation of avoiding injury, there is also the fact that the offense is not playoff-ready, with those three Eli Manning interceptions against the Eagles not the ideal momentum to carry forward. So will Eli be on the field for the opening possession at Washington -
"My take is to play. I think to go in there, play well and try to find a good rhythm offensively going against a team in the division, a team you know well and they know us. I think that's the mindset. Until I'm told differently, that's how I'm taking it."
That will provide some interesting reading as the week progresses, especially in terms of how the stores set the First Half line.
SEATTLE – With New Orleans/Atlanta having been pushed back to a late start, the Seahawks will kick off with the opportunity to move up to the #2 seed, which they get by winning, and having the Falcons lose. But they still need to win to wrap up the #3 seed, since a loss to the 49ers would put them behind the Green Bay/Detroit winner. But this is another situation that is not about just positioning, but instead the Seahawks showing that they are good enough to win in the post-season.
Pete Carroll was blunt about it - “I don’t think it’s alarming. I just think it’s what we’re working with. Obviously, it’s going to be really difficult to expect us to play a great game until we do.”
?TAMPA BAY – Several things have to happen for the Buccaneers to be on the practice field next week, and naturally it all starts with beating Carolina. So a young team on the rise, with a first year HC at the helm, has nothing better to do than to game plan as though this is a playoff affair vs. the Panthers. I will be following that closely, because the Bucs may be shaping up as a prime Survivor Pool option given the brewing Pittsburgh apathy towards this week’s scoreboard.
WASHINGTON - Outside of those that had Dallas & Over tickets last night, perhaps no one enjoyed watching the Monday Night game play out more than the Redskins. The first matter of business is to beat the Giants on Sunday, a task that might be made easier by Ben McAdoo’s player rotation (as noted above, something to be following closely). Then what do Jay Gruden and his players get to do? Sit in front of a television set, and root for Packers/Lions to end in anything other than a tie. Should that game end up deadlocked, both Green Bay and Detroit qualify, and the Redskins are out.
The Washington game plan will be to treat the clash with the Giants as though it was a playoff affair. Not that working harder necessarily makes Gruden any smarter.
In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA…
I believe there is going to be a high level of energy from Boise State in the Cactus Bowl tonight, energy that can translate to a good performance give how sharp Byran Harson’s bowl preparation has been in his first two go-rounds, wins and covers by 51.5 points. But there is an issue with a Broncos defense that will be without four starters, including Jabril Frazier and Dylan Sumner-Gardner, so it will be #242 Boise State Team Total Over (10:15 Eastern) as the path, with 37.5 out there in the morning trading, and value holding up to 38.
The Boise interest in playing well has been easy to track from a program that has a lot of pride. A win tonight would make it 11 seasons of 11 victories or more since 2002, with only Ohio State matching that, and the 15th straight Senior class to reach 40 wins. I use those numbers because that is what the players and coaches have talked about. Let’s delve into that here -
First, from Senior OL Mario Yakoo - “We’re nine points away from potentially being one of the best teams in Boise State history. … We still have that dirty taste in our mouths, and there’s nothing better to cure that dirty taste than to go out there Dec. 27 and just dominate, get that ‘W.’ ” How about QB Brett Rypien - “It’s going back and looking at every little thing that cost us those nine points. The fan base and the players and the coaches have a very high expectation for the program and a program that expects to win 11 games per year, and if you don’t, it’s a disappointing season.” I’ll close with DE Sam McCaskill - “You take all that rage and disappointment from some of the stuff that happened throughout the season, and you carry that into preparation for the bowl game.”
?That energy can play well into what is likely to be a disinterested Baylor defense, the Bears not exhibiting any special energy in having to keep a dismal season going, rather than pack the equipment away, and in his last assignment as HC Jim Grobe understands one of the matchup problems that drives this ticket - “I love their offensive line. You’ve got to be physical with these guys. And one of our issues is we’re not very big up front, and I think this is one of the better offensive lines we’ll play against.”
I am not going to gamble on the Boise State defensive replacements playing well against a Baylor offense that still brings plenty of weapons, and should have a loose and aggressive game plan. But I will look for the Broncos to get plenty of points on the board.
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