Point Blank – November 25, 2016
Don’t get cornered on Talib & Peters…Maybe the last thing Luke Walton needs is for the Lakers to have to guard the Warriors again…A devil of a move helps to set up Arizona State…
One of the busiest cycles of the sports betting calendar gets shifted into the highest gear now, wall-to-wall football and basketball across the next three days, and also a time in which the marketplace gets extra busy as well, bringing more far money into play than usual. So there is a lot of work to do across all fronts.
Item: Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters will play this week (and that means more than many will appreciate)
One of the major themes as we sort through the NFL here this season has been the impact of injuries at non-skill positions, in particular a focus on offensive line play. Those are delicate adjustments to make because individual statistics are hard to come by, and as a consequence of that many times it is difficult to evaluate a player’s worth until they are not on the field. This week provides us with some food for thought at another key position group, and with Chiefs/Broncos being the Sunday night showcase let’s get to it.
Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters were back to full participation practice, and barring anything happening between now and kickoff, will start. Both are talented players that have major game impacts, but those impacts are not easy to measure. In recent weeks we have been afforded the opportunity.
I will keep the Talib tables relatively simple, but they are telling, here are the seven games with him on the field vs. the three without:
PPG YPG* YPP
In 16.7 175 5.2
Out 24 239 6.7
* - Passing yards per game
Is Talib’s absence really worth that much? No, it shouldn’t be that dramatic. But there is something to be said for the value of a shut-down CB in the modern NFL, and also note one of those subtle factors going forward – the time missed by an injured player can be a positive later in the season because he remains fresher. From Talib -“I’m feeling great, like even better. I got a three-week break, so my legs feel legs feel extra fresh. I just feel super fresh right now.”
Peters has not been around nearly as long as Talib, only being in his second season, but note that across those two campaigns he leads the NFL in interceptions with 13, and has also come up with three fumble recoveries in the nine games he has played this season. Without him against Tampa Bay the KC defense allowed the Bucs to roll for 27 first downs and 442 yards of total offense, leading to a +22 advantage in plays. And one of the notions you do need to accept about top cover guys is how much they impact the pass rush as well – Winston was only sacked one time in 40 drop-backs, the Tampa offense only turned the ball over once in their 74 snaps. Mike Evans, who would have been shadowed by Peters, caught six passes for 105 yards.
Adjusting the power ratings for top flight CBs is not an easy thing to do, and in this instance there are also the usual issues of small sample sets to work around. But making it a part of your processes will be another valuable tool to have in the box, the sort of thing the general marketplace will not properly appreciate.
NFL Fantasy QB – Derek Carr
Although the Carolina defensive numbers have been a little better since their bye week, I see more of that coming from an improved pass rush than the play of rookie CBs James Bradberry and Daryl Worley. Now those two are going to be locked up in a tough road battle against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and that is going to create plenty of opportunity for Carr. Yet he checks in at #10 at DraftKings and #7 at FanDuel, which provides solid value to take advantage of his positioning this week.
Item: On to Warriors/Lakers Round #3 (because many of you may have not done a post mortem from Wednesday night)
Time to review one that some may have just glossed over on a night before a Holiday, and the rather remarkable showing by Golden State in dismantling the Lakers 149-106 on Wednesday night. The scoreboard was dramatic enough, but there was something in the box score that the shrewd handicapper notices quickly – the Warriors had 47 assists on 53 made baskets. That is a stunning ratio, and they only fell a bit short of the all-time single game assist record of 52, that belonging to the Denver Nuggets back when many of their games emulated Globetrotters vs. Generals.
Now it comes front and center because there is a quick rematch tonight, the third go-round already between these teams, and it you want a crash course on the vagaries of the NBA regular season it does not take more than a quick glance at the first two –
LAL (+11.5) 117-97
GS (-18) 149-106
That is only a deviation of 56.5 points from the market projections across the two encounters.
The first game stretched some basketball pendulums to an extreme, the Golden State starters going4-29 from 3-point range, including an 0-10 from Steph Curry. The rematch? How about 13-23 from the starters, incuding 7-12 from Curry.
The Warriors are now up to nine consecutive games of at least 30 assists, and what has to be frightening for opposing defenses is the level of commitment they are showing to move the ball, no signs at all of offensive selfishness. From Kevin Durant, when told about the 47 assists in the Wednesday post-game - “That's pretty crazy. That shows as we get more comfortable with each other, everybody's touching the ball."
Tonight a focus goes to the Laker defense, and one of the first big challenges of Luke Walton’s debut season. Over the last six games they have allowed an average of 122.5 points per outing, on an alarming 52.5 percent shooting, and while the Golden State outcome carries a lot of weight in those numbers, there were also games against the Nets and Timberwolves, plus the opportunity to face the Bulls without Dwyane Wade. They have fallen to #29 for the full season in defensive efficiency, only Portland faring worse.
The Lakers will be without DeAngelo Russell, and possibly Julius Randle and Nick Young as well, which makes Walton’s job even more difficult – while the energy and effort from his young team has been terrific to this point, an 8-8 record being above expectations (they were only favored to win four times), there could be an early crisis of confidence developing on the defensive end. The Lakers have competed with energy, no player averaging 30 minutes per game as, but that has also come at the expense of defensive chemistry. Hence the eye test tonight to see if there is some commitment on that end of the court.
In the Sights, Friday NCAA…
I don’t think the markets did the right thing in their late-night surge to Arizona on Thursday, which opens the door for #141 Arizona State (9:30 Eastern) being commonly available at -1.5, and in this one value extends all the way back up to the opener of -3. This game was a feature game on the podcast, but now time to go into deeper detail - while the series history and two teams having disappointment seasons may call for this price range, I see an entirely different level of energy coming from the combatants right now, and it strongly favors the Sun Devils.
Arizona has been a topic multiple times in the Monday reviews, starting with a non-competitive effort vs. USC prior to the Wildcat bye week, when they were injury-ravaged in the skill positions, and beaten every bit as badly as the 34-point margin. But even though the bye offered them a chance to get physically healthy, they never returned mentally, going 0-4 ATS since then and losing to the spread by 95 points. Sure they will talk a good game leading up to kickoff, but when you are playing that badly it is not a matter of just snapping the fingers and getting back on track.
Meanwhile even in a disappointing season ASU has done enough things right to become bowl eligible with a win, and while the scoreboard may not show it the Sun Devils competed hard at Washington last week. They simply ran into the Huskies on a night on which the host played at a high level. One of the keys to note from ASU is the continuing development of 6-4/220 freshman WR N’Keal Harry, who caught 14 passes for 228 yards in the last two games, and what has been a struggling ground attack may get a boost if LG Sam Jones can make it a go.
Look for ASU to be able to move the ball at will against an undersized Arizona defense that just doesn’t have much fight left, and also tobe efficient at turning the drives into points – Zane Gonzalez is having one of the best seasons of any kicker in NCAA history, 23-24 on FG attempts that includes 7-8 beyond 50 yards, and it won’t take much to at least get in his range on the majority of Sun Devil drives, his abilities so significant in a game priced in this range.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
Something I did not expect to see over the course of the week was money showing up either on Utah State or against BYU, dropping that line from -18.5 to -17, and now there is the first -16.5 available. So that makes it easy to put #226 BYU (10:15 Eastern) in play at the -17 plateau. In this case we end the regular season for these two teams by going back to the beginning.
Kalani Sitake put his stamp on the Cougars early – extra tough practices with the focus on making them the most physical team in the nation. That matters for tonight’s setting, so let’s go back to his own words, which were detailed here in September - “That’s why we hit the weight room harder than we’ve ever done before. We felt like we needed to get that edge on the line of scrimmage and we did some unique things to get our guys ready. If you ask our players, we squatted more than any team. I can tell you confidently, we squatted more than any team in the country and we ran more stairs than them. So that built a lot of strength. We lifted every day. We did the same thing in camp. If you want to get bigger, stronger and have confidence, the weight room is the best place to do it.”
That has played out as the season has progressed, the Cougars out-scoring the opposition 112-21 in the second half since October 1, and you can even put an * next to that for a 6-0 run vs. Southern Utah over the final two quarters in which Sitake and his staff called off the horses. But now use that Southern Utah outing to set added perspective – not only was BYU built to go the distance, but a case could be made that this is one of the nation’s freshest teams this week, having a late-October bye, an easy win at Cincinnati, and then home walk-overs vs. Southern Utah and Massachusetts. The Cougars will be physically ready to go hard tonight, and if anything will relish the chance to step on the gas after coasting the last two weeks. And there is no problem with motivation – Senior Night annually means more in Provo than just about anywhere else, this one particular special because of Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams.
Contrast this with a fading Utah State team on an 0-4 SU and ATS slide down the stretch, the Aggies defense having to face 210 running plays across that stretch, those runs going for 1,130 yards. Even when fresh this defense was not making plays, only coming up with two takeaways over the last eight games, and they won’t be able to offer much resistance against the kind of physical play the favorite will throw at them tonight.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
I did not expect the Ravens to be affordable in the Sunday morning trading given the injury circumstances, but -3.5 is available at even money in several key precincts, including a few at plus vigorish (+106 at Pinny), and that opens the door to get #258 Baltimore (1:00 eastern) in play.
In the Tuesday NFL review there was a focus on the impact that A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard had on the Cincinnati offense, and in particular the realization that despite his brilliant 2015 numbers Andy Dalton is nothing more than an average QB. But lost amidst some of that, in terms of the markets not adjusting all that much this week, is that the Bengals have been struggling anyway – since Week #1 their only wins came over a Miami team back when the OL was depleted, and the hapless Browns. The offense has shown a major problem in terms of making good in-game adjustments, failing to score in overtime vs. the Redskins three games back, and in the fourth quarter vs. the Giants and Bills in the last two, all games in which one scoring drive could have let to a scoreboard win. Now they face one of the best defenses in the NFL with even fewer weapons to work with, which will may be more than this offense is capable of handling.
The Ravens found some offensive identity when they picked up the pace in the second half vs. Cleveland two weeks ago, and note that in losing at Dallas last Sunday they put up 7.1 yards per play and did not have a turnover, while Joe Flacco was only sacked once in 36 drop-backs. That brings us a right place/right time across this handicap, and more than fair value to put it into play.
For your listening pleasure…
This week's NCAA Podcast can be found here, and here for the NFL.
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