Point Blank – September 30
Revenge/Redemption on the Playing Fields – II…Down the stretch with the wild in Wild Card…A little Old School goes “In the Sights…”
Time to delve into those NCAA Revenge notions a little more, set up the MLB weekend, and then for the pockets we can note that for as much as modern football has changed, there are some elements of “old school” that still matter.
Item: Revenge does not matter all that much (though when it does it is significant)
Time to finish up a bit on the opening salvo about NCAA revenge games from yesterday, but first to recap Conneticut/Houston.
As it turns out Tom Herman did not keep his foot on the gas in terms of the scoreboard vs. Houston last night, although he did keep actively coaching – while Greg Ward did not play over the final three series, it was anything but a clock-grinding approach, with Kyle Postma throwing nine passes in the fourth quarter, and also getting sacked on what would have been attempt #10. In terms of team development, there was no time wasted.
As noted yesterday, just about every game the remainder of the college season brings some aspect of revenge to it, as we get into conference play and annual meetings. It would be nice if it was a clear-cut factor that could lead to easy tickets being cashed, but that only happens on a few occasions each season. The key is to focus on games in which aspects of the revenge bring a significant impact, but it is not as easy as some would like for it to be....
I'll never pause again, never stand still,
Till either death hath closed these eyes of mine
Or fortune given me measure of revenge.
Shakespeare, Henry VI
Here is the gist – for many of these conference games the teams are already going to be bringing something close to their best effort anyway. And you can just about forget the concept entirely when it is A vs. A, since those showdown games don’t leave any room left over for the factor to come into play. Perhaps the best example so far this season on that front was Alabama/Mississippi, the rare opportunity to get Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide in a double-revenge setting, but that game was already going to bring a fever pitch to both teams. Yes, Bama wanted to go hard to erase the memory of those last two losses, but in terms of intensity and effort, the Ole Miss players took the field ready to play with just as much energy.
Hence one key to file away – if the side opposite of the revenge team is going to play just as hard, then the concept is not much of a tangible factor.
Sometimes it is not the energy of the setting, but the tactics. That is why there is so much diligence put into post-mortems for each game, trying to find as many why’s as possible behind the outcome. If one team severely underperforms the expectation in a game, which would set up revenge for their next head-to-head, finding the reasons why they failed can sometimes lead to an edge. Was there a tactical issue in the matchup that they can solve? Find it, and you may have something.
More than anything else, for me most notions of using revenge come down to whether there is a “control element” in the game, that being one team in a position to exert their will on the other. Houston/Connecticut brought that on Thursday, and the “In the Sights…” ticket to Bose State/Utah State this focuses around that element (also from yesterday’s edition). This can especially matter in a game in which a big favorite was humiliated by the opponent in the last meeting, because often that scoring margin is in the back of the minds of the coaches and players.
That margin should be in your mind as well. Boise State lost by 26 at Utah State in 2015; now Bryan Harsin and his team may not feel that they have earned their proper degree of vengeance unless they win the rematch by more than those 26 points.
As the weeks go by there will be more discussions on this front, and the focus on settings in which it maters, but for now the key takeaway is to not make it a bigger factor that it really is. Many times coaches and players will talk a good game in a revenge week, but don’t le that lull you into believing that it means more than it does.
Item: Old School still matters
I am going to copy this word-for-word from an article by Joel Jellison in the Manhattan Mercury this week, for a meaningful take from Bill Snyder, one of my favorite people in all of sports…
TOUGH LESSONS
Running back Charles Jones landed in the doghouse Saturday after he dropped the ball as he scored a touchdown against Missouri State.
Snyder benched Jones for the remainder of the game and asked him to apologize to the team.
In the week leading up to the contest, Snyder said the Wildcats have a rule to hand the ball to an official after scoring a touchdown.
Snyder said the senior won’t be punished any more and, he will play in Saturday’s game at West Virginia.
“I can’t tell you that he’ll start, and if he doesn’t start it’s not because of that,” Snyder said. “He received his just due, and he’s apologized to the team, and I appreciate that a great deal. He didn’t mean any harm by it, but it was that lack of discipline and those kind of things carry over into other aspects of your play.”
Note that final sentence, the parts in BOLD by me, because it means so much, and I will get back to what it means for this particular week in a moment...
Item: The Wild Cards can get really wild
And here we go to the MLB Sunday finish line, and possibly beyond, in the Wild Card race, that rain-out in Detroit yesterday possibly extending the season.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Mets 85-74
Giants 84-75
Cardinals 83-76
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Blue Jays 87-72
Orioles 87-72
Tigers 85-73
Mariners 85-74
One of the intriguing notions behind the weekend matchups is that Toronto is in Boston, and San Francisco hosts Los Angeles. It means that the Red Sox and Dodgers can do a little playoff-shaping themselves, with a chance to knock those contenders out of the picture, assuming that is what they want to do. I believe for L.A. that is a motivation – given the struggles the Dodgers have had against left-handers this season, having to facing Madison Bumgarner a couple of times in a playoff series is something they would like to avoid. Of course it is Bumgarner that they are up against tonight, which may set the tone for the weekend.
There is also more at stake for the Red Sox and Dodgers – home field prospects. Boston has fallen behind Texas in the AL after getting swept by the Yankees, but the Red Sox remain a half game above Cleveland. Los Angeles trailed Washington by two full games entering the weekend for the #2 spot in the National League, and would require a clean ride.
This flow will be watched closely throughout the weekend, and there is something I will take a piece of tonight…
In the Sights, Friday MLB…
I am going to split a ticket on #918 Boston (7:05 Eastern) between half Straight and half Run Line, with up to -150 OK on the side (there is as low as -143 out there), and +130 on the RL (I see as high as +138).
I don’t have any problem with the Red Sox lacking momentum off of that 0-3 collar at New York; if anything losing on Thursday with a reduced lineup brings a sense of urgency and physical freshness here, with all hands now on deck, and Rick Porcello out to cement his Cy Young. Porcello has had one of the best seasons in Fenway history, a 13-1/2.88 from this mound in which the only loss came by a 1-0 scoreboard, and he has been a marvel of consistency, with 12 consecutive starts in which he has allowed three runs or less. The bullpen behind him is also well positioned for the latter stages.
For Toronto it has been a woeful September at the plate, a .694 OPS that ranks #26 in the major’s (contrast that with Boston’s #3 at .793), and I do not like Marco Estrada’s fly balls in Fenway. And if it does get decided late, the Blue Jay bullpen brings some end-game confidence issues, having twice allowed leads to get away in the 9th inning at home this week.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
For all of the speed on the field and the wide-open playbooks that are a part of college football these days, there is still room for doing things the smart way, building a team from then inside out via smart fundamentals. That is what Bill Snyder does at Kansas State, perhaps the only way to make things work there because it is not a recruiting hotbed. Meanwhile Dana Holgorsen does things the opposite way at West Virginia, building from the outside in, with a creative playbook that can make a lot of things happen, but can also come up short in terms of basic football smarts and execution.
What happens when Snyder and Holgorsen go head-to-head? We bet, that is what happens, and that means #125 Kansas Sate (3:30 Eastern, note the time change) going into pocket, with some 3.5 out there in the current trading, and this one good at +3 or better. If you can take +140 or better I would also play one-third of the ticket on the Money Line.
KSU/WVU have met four times since becoming Big 12 brethren and it has been a 4-0 SU and ATS for Snyder, games in which his team has surpassed the market expectations by a meaningful 70 points. In three of those games the Wildcats were the underdog, which makes an even bigger statement.
It isn’t just the fact that State will play smarter and execute better, but also a particular aspect of the matchup, a physical running game with zone read aspects that has consistently bulled its way against a quick, but small, Mountaineer defense. Jesse Ertz is just the guy to make that happen again, and note that while WVU has gotten out of the gate 3-0, the defense is allowing 214 yards per game on the ground at 5.0 per carry. The ability of K-State to control the line of scrimmage has been a key in the past in this matchup, and is out there again, so it would be no surprise if the Wildcats grab another outright win in a result that will be labeled as an upset, but isn’t.
In the Sights, NCAA Market Basket…
There is a major inside/out component from the disparate results involving Tennessee and Georgia last week that bring a sense of timing that I believe favors the Bulldogs between the hedges in Athens today. Butch Jones and his team may have wanted that Florida break-through a little too much, and Kirby Smart showed again that he does not have the proper defensive tactics vs. the Hugh Freeze offense at Ole Miss. But the Bulldog mistakes in that one can be corrected, and now that the markets have turned both 3 and 4 into “win” numbers over the course of the week it is #178 Georgia (3:30 Eastern) in play, with 4.5 an easy find in the morning trading. and this one good at +4 or more.
A big part of this push is the ankle injury to Nick Chubbs, who ha not completely been ruled out, but this price represents an over-compensation – the Bulldogs have plenty of depth at the position. Sony Michel has a chance to play on Sunday’s, running for 1,161 yards and eight TDs last year, including 245 yards at 6.6 per carry against Tennessee in Knoxville when Cubb was injured. And last week at Ole Miss it was a combined 144 yards and two TDs from Michel and Brian Herrien after Chubb left the game. They can attack a vulnerable Tennessee defense that was already without Cameron Sutton, and will not have Jalen Reeves-Maybin today, a pair of all-SEC talents now missing from that unit.
In the three meetings in this series since Butch Jones took over at Tennessee, the closing line would have shown Georgia -5 on a neutral in 2015, -15 in 2014, and -16.5 in 2013. The current price plateau says Tennessee -7.5, and is shifting the balance of power more than it really has between these programs.
In the Sights, NFL…
Sunday morning brings a most welcome sight across the trading board – the chance to find the Steelers having dropped into the play range, with -3.5 at even money commonly available, some -3.5 at plus vig out there, and the opportunity for a shopper to find a reasonable -3. That puts #276 Pittsburgh (8:30 Eastern) into play.
The Steelers are dealing with some injuries in their back seven on defense, but this price point has more than over-compensated, especially with Lawrence Timmons cleared to go after last Sunday’s scare at Philadelphia. There will be some younger players working their way into the rotation in the secondary, but some of those are transitions that we close to happening anyway. That group will not be overly taxed by a mediocre Kansas City offense that had a far worse game than the scoreboard showed vs. the Jets last week, not able to turn all of those New York miscues into much production.
The key tonight is the Pittsburgh offense, which may be thee NFL’s best when all hands are on deck, and now gets the 2016 debut of Le’Veon Bell. It is just Bell’s abilities that matter, but also the way that the playbook has been tweaked in the off-season, with Todd Haley and Ben Roethlisberger working on a variety of ways to create matchup problems against opposing defenses. Let’s let the Steelers set the stage for this themselves –
Roethlisberger: “Listen, we’re not going to put him at wide receiver and use DeAngelo at running back, but we will, I think, have them both on the field and move them out of the backfield. We’re not going to take RB off the front of [Bell’s] name and put WR, but I definitely think he is one of our best receivers.”
Bell: “I want to be a player for all aspects of the game. I want to catch short passes, down the field, whatever it may be. Run after [the catch], everything. I think this year we started in camp and OTAs running [deep patterns] a lot more. Obviously the offensive coordinator trusts you, the head coach trusts you and Ben trusts you. Now they all put a lot more trust in me so we’ll see a lot more.”
There is a lot of upside here, and in particular it can happen tonight because the KC defense will lack any prep time for what they are going to see, and can be put on their heels throughout.
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