Point Blank – September 5
What a Bettor Better Know – NCAA #1...And on Labor Day we will also do our work on the Diamonds...
That was quite an opening salvo to the 2016 NCAA season, with plot twists across the landscape, leading to scrambles throughout the Betting community to assess not just relative team strengths, but also some major changes in tempo, of the teams, including some that require hitting delete across several years of data. That can be a frustrating thing to do, but those that are quickest on their feet can get themselves into excellent down-and-distance settings as the season unfolds.
Monday’s here mean time to sort through those NCAA results, and they will also be days for the Classic Jukebox because of the long reads ahead, providing you with some background as you work your way through. Notre Dame/Texas not only capped things with a nice sizzle but set the tone for a rather intriguing season, so let’s go to Emerson, Lake and Palmer from their 40th Annivesary tour, live in London, one more chance to pay respects to Keith Emerson, who passed away at the age of 71 this past March -
Item: The Cougars are not just Herman’s hermits now
Tom Herman was a highlighted topic several times across these pages last fall, focusing on both his positive impact in Houston, and also how far off the Ohio State offense fell without him calling the shots. There is no need to be redundant on that front except to note a rather flattering aspect that should be near the top of his resume – since the start of the 2012 season the teams that he was either HC or OC of have been underdogs 10 times, and own all 10 of those games outright. To go 10-0 ATS would be rather brilliant, but to have won each of those games is historic.
Want to have even more fun with it? If we go back to 2011, his final season as the OC at Iowa State, it was a 7-3 ATS mark as an underdog, with four outright wins. The Cyclones covered their last five dog settings that season, so it would be a 15-0 ATS run for Herman in the role, with 12 outright wins.
Where it gets even more interesting now is that the Cougars won’t be an underdog again this season unless they are in the Playoffs on New Year’s Eve. Can that happen? The prospects are real, just as real as a Heisman Trophy run for Greg Ward, the ideal prototype QB for a Herman offense.
There are only a handful of games that present challenges – road trips to Cincinnati, Navy and Memphis will require the Cougars to play well, and there is a late home showdown vs. Louisville that could be extremely interesting if the Cardinals can beat either Florida State or Clemson earlier in the campaign. Houston fans will be rooting for Bobby Petrino’s crew in those games, as well as rooting for Oklahoma the rest of the way – the better the Sooners turn out to be, the more it aids the Houston resume.
Does 13-0, with wins over Oklahoma and Louisville, get you into the Playoff conversation. Yes, in a season in which I do not expect many unbeaten teams from the Power Five conferences. What I believe can be actionable now is shopping out for the best Heisman Trophy odds for Ward. I believe 22-1 or better is a fit, a combination of Ward putting up big numbers in this system, especially given the mediocre defenses on the remaining schedule; but also the fact that as long as Houston remains unbeaten there will be a high degree of media attention, which keeps putting him into the spotlight.
Of course Saturday was not a case of Houston necessarily being all that; Oklahoma also opened some of the doors…
Item: Bob Stoops stooped to be conquered, and was
I did not bet Houston on Saturday; holding out for a full +14 that nearly showed but did not. There was a genuine fear concerning the matchup – could a Houston defensive front lacking heft and depth stand up against a physical opponent for four quarters, and could the secondary come up in support to tackle Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. As it turns out that matchup was relegated to being a lesser issue in the game, for reasons not easy to understand.
The Perine/Mixon tandem only got six carries each from scrimmage, those 12 runs producing 71 yards and a TD, a solid 5.9 per attempt. That was my concern, but despite that effectiveness, Bob Stoops and OC Lincoln Riley would not make that their point of emphasis. They at least did use the RBs on pass plays, eight catches for another 105 yards, but by not working the overland game the offense was not able to stay on the field long enough, running 20 fewer plays than the Cougars. It was bad game management by the Oklahoma staff, but not necessarily the worst – a key turning point in the game, and perhaps the season for each team, came from a major mistake by the Sooners.
Oklahoma was only down 19-17 midway through the third quarter, when facing a 3rd-and-18 from the Houston 36-yard line. In that down-and-distance a savvy staff understands the odds, and has fourth down prepared quickly – a run or a completion short of the chains and the field goal team goes in; a sack and it is the punt team. The problem is that they were caught in between, and when Baker Mayfield threw the third down pass away there was hesitation. The FG unit was called on a bit late, OL Jonathan Alvarez struggling to get lined up in time, so Stoops had to call time out. It turned out to be a seismic moment.
The result, of course, was what may hold up as the Play of the Year all season, Brandon Wilson returning the missed FG 109 yards for a TD. The momentum turned abruptly, and notions of running Perine/Mixon against a tired defense in the fourth quarter vanished.
But now the crucial part – had Oklahoma sent the FG team out on time, regardless of whether it was made or not, the return would not have happened. It was the indecision that opened the door. Let’s detail it from Herman - "We were actually -- I'm embarrassed to say -- we were caught in the middle of punt-safe vs. our field goal block team. We weren't sure who [Oklahoma had] jogging out. Was it the punt team jogging out? They were confused as well, because they didn't have the right people. It was a little helter-skelter on their sidelines, so we weren't sure. Them having to call timeout certainly settled us down. Allowed us to know exactly who they were going to put in the game and decide what to do from there."
Of such little things are season arcs often drastically swung.
Item: A favorite of -17.5, with a turnover advantage, is not supposed to lose (so was Ohio bad, or was Texas State good)
Extreme results make for difficult handicapping, and many of those games will be a focus point here each Monday. One of the prime scramblers this past weekend was Ohio losing to Texas State in triple overtime, despite Frank Solich’s team being favored by -17.5 at kickoff. Ordinarily when such a favorite loses outright there is the search for something fluky in the box score, but this game did not provide that – the stats were even, and Ohio actually won the turnover battle by a +1. A -17.5 with a turnover advantage should almost never, ever lose, which means of course that the -17.5 was incorrect. But which way? The markets have quickly reacted with anti-Ohio, which I will get to in a moment, but the read is not an easy one.
Solich’s program has been on a relatively even keel, nothing spectacular but six bowl appearances over the last seven seasons. With 14 returning starters another positive campaign seemed in the offering, and while they lost RB A.J. Ouelette to injury early on Saturday, there is depth at the position. Ultimately they lost because they just weren’t any better than Texas State.
But where the hell did the performance by those other Bobcats come from? State was not just 0-6 SU and ATS on the road last year, but lost to the spread by 82.5 points, meaning that the markets were missing them by nearly two full TDs on those trips. It was the first game for HC Everett Withers, who replaced Dennis Franchione, but expectations were not high. Perhaps that changes now – Withers did have his team go out and have fun, producing one of those little quirks that we rarely see, QB Tyler Jones having the football trifecta of throwing a TD pass (four of them), running for a TD, and also catching a TD pass.
State is off this week, so there is time for a deeper post-mortem from that side of the equation. But now consider the market reactions against Ohio. If we use the power ratings from our friends at The Gold Sheet as a neutral observation, had Ohio played at Kansas on the final week of last-season, the Bobcats would have been -21. Naturally the oddsmakers made an adjustment off of Saturday, with Ohio posted only the slightest of favorites last night, but the early markets jumped anyway, pushing Kansas to -2.5 this morning. Can things have really changed that much?
Item: The Texas tempo was as advertised (and it means plenty going forward)
It isn’t just Power Ratings that are front-and-center in the early part of any NCAA season, but Pace Ratings as well. As it turns out Charlie Strong was not just blowing smoke about the Longhorns speeding things up, nor about being willing to start FR Shane Beuchele at QB – the offense snapped the ball 77 times in regulation vs. Notre Dame, a full 12 plays more than the per-game average from 2015.
Yes, note the “in regulation” tag, because proper NCAA sorting does mean creating a separate file for the overtime plays and results. Sorry, but it is necessary. The first part of this new scenario, of course, is quickly altering how Texas is perceived from a pace standpoint, and your previous databases for the Strong era have now been relegated to a far lesser importance. But also think long-term – that kind of show on national television was a tremendous recruiting tool. One of the reasons why Baylor and TCU have emerged on the national scene was playing uptempo on offense, and as such those programs were getting some of the best talent in the skill positions out of the state, players that would have gone to Austin in times past. That may change now – with Texas potentially moving back to being the first choice from a state that produces tremendous skill players from those ultra competitive High Schools.
Item: The BYU tempo was also as advertised
Notions of the Cougars slowing things down under new HC Kalani Sitake and OC Ty Detmer were front-and-center here on Thursday and that is indeed what we saw in their win over Arizona, playing a lot of smash-mouth by running between the tackles, most of the plays after huddles. But this one is a little trickier read from a snap standpoint because the entire game flow needs to be in perspective.
BYU did get off 76 snaps, which was right at the 2015 counts, but Arizona was held to 56, after the Wildcats averaged 75.5 in 2015. The overall game was a grinder, with only 132 total plays, compared to an average BYU lined game of 144, and average Arizona lined affair of 155, during the 2015 campaign.
Keying things for the Cougars was also a key focus point for the opening week – how healthy some skill players are in their return. Jamaal Williams appeared to be back to his 2013 form, when he ran for 1,233 yards at 5.7 per carry, before 2014 was shortened and 2015 missed completely. Williams ran for 162 yards in 29 carries and it could have been better – he had two long runs reduced by penalties or 200 could have been attained. His health was a major bit of good news for Sitake, and a few other coaches were also able to breathe a sigh of relief in getting key cogs back on the field, and at or above their previous level…
Item: Mike Williams has his wheels back for Clemson; John Ross III has his wheels back for Washington
As good as the Clemson offense was in 2015, one can only wonder how high the Tigers might of reached had not the 6-4/220 Williams, a potential NFL 1st-rounder, not been injured in the opener vs. Wofford. Williams caught 57 passes for 1,030 yards in 2014, and he and Deshaun Watson had the potential to be as good as any pitch-and-catch tandem in the nation last year. Perhaps this time they will be.
Williams caught nine passes for 174 yards vs. Auburn, and did not appear to have lost a step. For all that the Tigers already have, he brings a dimension that will be so difficult for opposing defenses to cope with, especially in the red zone.
Also appearing to be up to speed was Ross for Washington. He tore his ACL in April of 2015, which meant a long time away from the football field, but not only did he catch five passes for 90 yards vs. Rutgers, before not having to play much in the second half, he also exploded for a TD on a kickoff return. His return adds a major dimension to a Washington offense that struggled to stretch the field last year, and can now open things up much more for QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin.
Item: It was heart-warming to see James Conner play, but…
The return of Pittsburgh RB James Conner was a better feel-good story than either Jamaal or Mike Williams, or Ross III. Conner fought a battle with Hodgkin lymphoma, which produced tumors in his neck and chest, and hopefully has won it, after going through some arduous chemotherapy treatments.
He was back on the field as the Panthers beat Villanova on Saturday, and while that was so great to see, there will be some performance questions going forward – he only managed 53 yards on 17 carries, and three pass receptions only went for 16 yards. This will be something to focus in on, because for as much as we would like to see Conner succeed, his recuperation is from something entirely different than what most young athletes go through. That he played at all was a tribute to his toughness and in his won words - “My battle's already won. Everything else is just a bonus and a reward.”
Conner earns a top grade as a young man, but it will take time to determine how good his football grade is going to be, after he ran for a sparkling 1,765 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2014. He was not at that level on Saturday, although perhaps in his case added playing time will help him to re-acclimate.
Item: Scott Frost ran the game plan he wanted too, but it wasn’t pretty
Another one of the teams on the prime “tempo” watch list is Central Florida, with former Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost wasting no time in saying that his program can become the “Oregon of the East”. That might sound like outrageous talk but consider this – the university has the largest enrollment of any in the nation, and is under consideration for Big 12 expansion. Much like what is happening at Texas, Frost bringing in an exciting system can play well to a fertile local recruiting area. Do you want to play for a coach that comes right out with - "We're going to keep our foot on the gas at all times. We're going to take chances. We're going to go for it on fourth down; we're going to go for two-point conversions. I want our kids to play aggressive and know their coaches are behind them." Many talented young players do.
A problem for this transition is fitting square pegs into round holes, with most of the roster recruited by George O’Leary to play power football. As such, watching the development is a prime issue, and while Saturday records an opening rout of South Carolina State, it wasn’t pretty. The UCF tempo was indeed fast, 91 offensive snaps being laser-like for a team that only averaged 65 in 2015. But a lot of it was sloppy coughing and wheezing on offense. All of those snaps led to just 462 yards, and their first four scoring drives were only field goals.
It will be interesting if Frost tries to push that pace in the Big House this week, which might be a version of football suicide.
Item: How much will Sunday’s loss (yes, Sunday) impact Northern Illinois
College Football’s opening Saturday ended up stretching nearly 24 hours, with Boston College/Georgia Tech kicking off at 7:30 Eastern Saturday, and Northern Illinois/Wyoming not leaving the field unto 4:35 AM on Sunday morning. The latter game was not only delayed two hours because of lightning, but when it did start extended into triple overtime, all of that at the 7200 feet of altitude in Laramie. That makes for a different kind of post mortem.
The game kicked off at 11:10 on the body clock of the UNI players, and ended at 3:35. Not only were the Huskies on the field a long time, but the defense had to take on 83 plays, 54 of them on the ground. That is quite a toll to recover from, especially this early in the season.
Why not bring up the Wyoming side of the equation as well? There are indeed issues, but not as bad for the Cowboys, who got to go back to their own beds for a long Sunday sleep, instead of having to fly back to across a time zone. And what can exacerbate things for Northern even more is that the Saturday marathon was only the beginning of the longest back-to-back road trips in the history of the program, before heading down to Tampa on Saturday to take on resurgent South Florida. It is a particularly difficult setting, and I will get back to it in a moment. But first –
Item: The 2016 Point Blank NFL Fantasy Challenge begins
We got a lot of good responses from the Chicago Cubs -200 challenge, which now sits at 38 and has only a handful of contestations remaining, so now time to put the NFL season in focus. The format will be simple, yet challenging enough – you will select three players –
- QB Rushing and Passing Yards and Rushing TDs/TD Passes
- RB Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored
- WR/TE Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored
Players get one point for yards, and six for TDs. Note that special teams TDs count for the RBs and WR/TE category.You can begin thinking through your ideas now, and I will create a separate thread to post entries, for easier tracking. I will not update the standings each week until late in the season, as the drama unfolds.
Here are the prizes – a copy of “Sports Betting and Bookmaking: An American History”, autographed by the author, good friend Arne K. Lang, and a $100 gift certificate from Omaha Steaks. And of course the bragging rights that you have beaten your peers, something of a value that is not easy to gauge. I should have the thread for entries up by Tuesday, and the deadline will not be until Sunday – I doubt that Denver/Carolina provides much of a “cheet sheat”, especially the Broncos.
Item: To help you prepare for that...
The folks in the Pregame office did a nice job of collecting all of the Point Blank NFL Team Previews that have appeared here day-by-day over the past month into one handy edition, which you can find here. Feedback is appreciated, because it is the sort of thing we will try to do more often.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
I am going to go ahead and get in play on #338 South Florida (7:00 Eastern) now, with the Bulls in the midst of such a strong surge that they will be popular in the marketplace as the week goes on. Not only is the schedule cycle difficult for Northern Illinois, but in terms of the style of opponent the Huskies are truly in the wrong place at the wrong time. This one works at -14 or less for now, and even with the early markets pecking away some -13.5 can still be had, while the possible absence of RB Marlon Mack may actually help more than hurt, keeping the line at bay (he was a huge cog in the past, but not so much given the current talent at the position).
Willie Taggert was brought to USF in part because of his great recruiting connections in the area, and while the transition was a slow one, the Bulls put on an a mini-run to close last season in which they went 7-2 SU and ATS, beating the markets expectations by 120 points across those games. It was Taggert finally getting his own recruits on the field, and the unleashing of what they are calling the Gulf Coast Offense (watching the Taggert/Frost battles of recruiting and tempo will be fascinating).
USF had 31 TD drives of 2:00 or less in 2015, and came up with six more on Saturday night, a game in which seven different players scored TDs. Let’s let RB Darius Tice detail it - “We go so fast and run so many plays. We put people in different situations. When it comes down to somebody making a play, you never know where it’s coming from.”
All seven of the players that scored on Saturday are from the Sunshine State, and Taggert should be able to continually bring in talented athletes that want to play that style. That would be a problem for a UNI defense that is a step slow on the best of occasions, but has that magnified here, not only the fatigue that carries over from a Sunday morning finish that will impact their early-week practices, but also having to make another long trip, and then have to deal this pace in the heat and humidity that early September brings to Tampa. I expect the Huskies to struggle to keep up with the playmakers of the Bulls early, and then to simply wear out as the game progresses.
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
A Labor Day filled with matinee action brings us a setting with the proper value to step in, and we will back Justin Verlander and Chris Sale to engage in another pitching duel via #974 White Sox/Tigers First Half Under (4:10 Eastern), with 4 available in the current trading. Both starters get to take advantage of lineups that had to travel from Sunday into this early start, all the while each of them had already settled in, having flown ahead.
Verlander has turned not the clock, but the calendar back, since the All Star break, a 6-1/2.04 that has rivaled any career stretch, with 78 strikeouts vs. only 41 hits allowed in that span. Sale has not been far behind that, a 2.52 post-break, and that includes two games against the Tigers in which they were held to a single run across the First Five each time.
I do not want any part of the bullpens here, in particular the White Sox relievers being gassed out, but I expect each starter to make a couple of good passes through the lineup as the early stages go by quickly, especially with those late-afternoon shadows in play over on the South Side.
In the Sights, MLB Part II…
As a holiday bonus let’s play two today – I wanted to make sure that Salvador Perez would be behind the plate for the Royals today, not certain that he would in a travel setting to a day game, but he is in play, and so am I now with #969 Kansas City (2:05 Eastern), this one good to -135.
Ian Kennedy has it all over Jose Berrios in terms of current form, but while the starting edge is substantial, when it is bullpen vs. bullpen it is an even bigger mismatch, with Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis both fresh for the Royals, while the Twins are in tatters after six relievers threw 131 pitches yesterday. With Berrios showing no ability to eat innings that aspect comes front-and-center, a major late-game edge to a KC team still fighting for their playoff lives.
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