Point Blank – August 26
It’s time to bet some NCAA Football…But not Down Under, though there are lessons to be learned…There are some things a proper southern father should do for his son…It won’t be much of Mister Rodgers neighborhood at San Francisco tonight…
I am going to step away from the daily NFL team reports until Monday, when Kansas City will be the focus, so that a game I will not bet on, tonight’s California/Hawaii clash in Australia, can come front-and-center because it does provide some interesting talking points, handicapping issues that will rear their head often in September non-conference action. And ultimately the discussion leads to a game that I will bet on. There is also plenty of NFL to sort through and a big weekend of MLB ahead, with 17 teams still inside of 4.5 games on the path to a playoff spot.
Item: It is more motivation than matchups when the spread is 20+
California/Hawaii will not have me reach into pocket, but it is a proper intro to the college football season – welcome to the land of non-competitive games, and the particular point spread aspects they bring. So let’s use this matchup as an example of what to look for, and then in a few minutes it will be time to step in and bet one.
When we evaluate games in the higher pointspread ranges, let’s say 20 or more (and while this one is showing a lot of 19.5 the logic fits), the major focus goes to the intent of the coaches. The game outcome will rarely be close, and much of the second half in these affairs is played out with the scoreboard winner already being known. It leads to a point spread equation in which one particular coach, the favorite in the game, carries much more power than his opponent. In many of these settings it can come down to a simple notion of how much the favorite wants to win by, the underdog not being good enough to be a factor in the equation.
That is not an easy thing for the oddsmakers to price. They can evaluate disparities in talent and depth in setting the line, but can struggle to measure intent. Hence, that becomes a prime task for those of us trying to make money across the betting boards. So instead of being theoretical, let’s go to Sydney.
This line is high based on how I have the teams rated, should they both go all-out for the full 60 minutes. I am not betting Hawaii because that may not be the way the game plays out, although I might have taken a little +14 for the First Half had that ever appeared. What is a prime issue tonight? The coaches motivation in terms of player rotation.
Item: Cal will go hard all the way, but will Hawaii?
Cal is rebuilding, with a new offensive package under OC Jake Spavital that will slow things down a bit after the Jared Goff years, and in fact is a better fit for this roster, which has depth and experience at OL and RB to power up a ground game. The defense has a lot of work to do, a young unit made worse by Hardy Nickerson transferring and Demariay Drew not making it back from injury. But the Golden Bears are allowed to go hard for the full game, with a bye week next. Since he needs to develop his team for a tough slate ahead (there is not a single game that the Bears can circle as a definite win after this one), Dykes can even aim for the confidence that a scoreboard blowout would bring.
It is a much different case for Nick Rolovich, who faces arguably the worst two-game cycle to open a head coaching career in NCAA annals. Not only is this a long trip bringing awkward logistics, but Rolovich has to then get his team to Ann Arbor to face Michigan next Saturday, a case of a program putting a paycheck for that game ahead of the best interest of the players.
So now the conundrum for Rolovich. He has his full roster in Sydney, much like for a bowl game. Next week only the traveling squad goes to Michigan, reducing the roster by more than 25 percent. If the task is to develop a team to compete in the Mountain West later, since these first two games aren’t going to be won on the scoreboard anyway, how much does that impact Rolovich’s managing of the rotation tonight? Does he come in with a projection of how much he wants his starters to play over these first two games combined, and work within that limitation? Does the fact that he has 25-30 players available tonight that won’t be next week make him want to get them some playing time and experience?
This takes us to one of the keys for understanding high point spread games, and it will lead to a phrase that Old Joe and I used often through the years – “All they have to do is get to the spread”. That is a reference I would make to him on some of these games and nothing more needed to be said – we would be betting the favorite because the back-door was out of play. It often is for some of these underdogs, and when you can isolate that then you have something.
Think of it this way. An underdog of +10 that is losing by 14 is in a much different frame of mind than an underdog of +20 that is losing by 24. Hence why it is not uncommon for back-door covers in the lower spread ranges, the trailing team still having the spirit to compete to win the game, but when you track NCAA results closely you find that back-doors are rare for the higher spreads. Once a coach can no longer win a game it changes his approach to player rotation and play calling, and one of the facts of life in these games is that the talent gap for Reserve vs. Reserve is often even wider than Starter vs. Starter.
So Hawaii can compete tonight, but there is a question as to whether the Warriors will make that the full-game goal. Should Rolovich find his team down by 17 in the fourth quarter they would still be within the spread, but out of reach of the outright win, and at that point his focus is allowed to shift to thinking more about developing his team for later, rather than getting the best possible scoreboard result this evening. Hence, no bet.
But there is one coming up on the Week #1 board that does go into pocket, and going into deeper detail will help incorporate some general handicapping notions on this type of game…
In the Sights, NCAA Week #1…
If the oddsmakers price the talent gap properly it can often bring us a setting in which there are motivational issues on each sideline that can be put into play, and I believe we have that next Saturday with #171 South Alabama (Noon Eastern) taking a generous +31 at Mississippi State. Not only can both sides of this equation work, but the starting time being moved up to 11 AM in Starkville makes it a far less hostile environment for the Jaguars than it could have been. Value extends down to +28 in this one.
Dan Mullen is one of the better coaches in all of college football going 55-35 at State despite coming from the worst recruiting outpost in the daunting SEC West. And Mullen is savvy enough to know that the scoreboard margin here doesn’t mean a damn thing for this program – with the SEC opener up vs. South Carolina next week, and then a trip to LSU, this is merely a “take care of business” setting, with the key cogs not playing much more than they have to, the HC looking at the scoreboard more to see the clock ticking than the points.
There are issues with some of those keys, however, which is a plus for our purposes here. Dak Prescott has quickly shown the NFL just how good he is, and after three seasons of his leading the Bulldog offense there is a major downgrade at the position, especially with the QB derby having four players in the hunt when spring practice began, which meant no one getting enough reps with the first team offense. Mullen could only reduce that to three in fall camp, and he will not name a starter from the Damian Williams/Nick Fitzgerald/Nick Tiano trio until Monday. Even then Mullen states that the battle is not over - “The problem is we come out Monday, OK, this guy is ready to start. Now we transition to game planning and they really don’t handle it well. I might have to flip and go back. The other aspect is getting into a game. Even though a guy’s a starter we’ll make sure that they’re ready when the lights come on. If he collapses, another guy really is much better when the lights come on and we’ve got to look at that aspect of the evaluation, too.”
This offense has gone from being set for three seasons to an awkward open audition – the three challengers have been splitting practice reps since fall camp opened (Elijah Staley, who was in the mix in the spring, transferred out), meaning that no one got nearly enough time with the first team, which makes it difficult to explode out of the gate. But the Bulldogs don’t just have an issue on offense, the CB position has also become a major problem. The secondary was already having to replace Taveze Calhoun and Will Redmond, who are on NFL training camp rosters trying to earn Sunday paychecks, but expected starters Tolando Cleveland and Cedric Jiles have both been lost with recent injuries, scrambling up that position. As such, Mullen might consider a scoreboard outcome far below this pointspread to still be a “win” in the grand scheme of his 2016 purposes, and note that it would not be something new – he is 3-7 ATS laying -20 or more in non-conference games. As long-time readers know I rarely talk about trends, especially those with small samples, but the Big Chalk/Big Dog roles do get seriously charted because so much of that can be attributed to a coaches intent.
South Alabama brings the ideal focus for a big dog in this range – the Jaguars have talked openly about how getting to play an SEC team in the opener brings a different energy to fall practice. The talent is just good enough to not be overwhelmed, and in particular there is a game planning consideration that brings the kind of factor that makes college football unique – the sort of edges that are not priced into the line.
Kane Wommack is the new South Alabama defensive coordinator, and the youngest in the nation at the age of 28. That age might be an issue at another time, but not here, because of a pedigree that matters – his father Dave is a long-time veteran that has been the DC at Mississippi the past four seasons, where Kane served as a grad assistant a couple of years ago.
Ole Miss, of course, is the biggest rival for State. The elder Wommack does not just game plan one week out of every year when facing the Bulldogs, but because of the magnitude of the rivalry likely thinks about the Mullen playbook for much of the off-season. So you can just imagine this scene around a picnic table on one of those hot and humid summer evenings – “Daddy what is the best way for us to game plan against State?” And the elder Wommack twists off a crayfish tail and says “Well son, here are some of the things that have worked for us…”
South Alabama does't have much chance to win this game, but with State lacking any interest in winning by five TDs, and the Jaguars bringing a greater sense of purpose than usual in this point spread range, there is value on backing the underdog to compete.
Item: A terrific read on the Fantasy front
Before we get back to betting football, if you want as good of a read as you will find on the traveling circus that has been the Fantasy Sports Industry, try this from Don Van Natta, who is one of the very best.
And for your NCAA listening pleasure
This week also marks the first of the NCAA podcasts, which I will be doing with Ralph Michaels and Brad Powers, RJ Bell hosting the opener but his arcane pro wrestling references getting pushed aside once it becomes a 3-man crew in the weeks to come. The focus this week is on a lot of season-long issues.
In the Sights, Friday NFL…
Most of you should already have some Cleveland/Tampa Bay Over in pocket, which you can refer back to here, although the markets have taken much of that value away. Now let’s add to the ticket.
There is only one game on the entire NFL board in which 45 is a “win” number for Under bettors, and I believe that brings an opportunity to step in and take advantage, with #262 49ers/Packers Under (10:00 Eastern) going into pocket. The QB rotation does not call for it, and while Chip Kelly has indeed been speeding things up with the 49ers, tonight he runs squarely into Mike McCarthy wanting to slow things down. Value extends down to 45.
We should get our first look at Colin Kaepernick this evening, which means likely rusty play, but even without rust mediocre play anyway. And there will be the only pre-season work from Aaron Rodgers tonight, but don’t expect a lot of it – with Brett Hundley unable to go the last thing the Packers want is for Rodgers to be taking hits.
As for the tempo, this marks the first of four straight road games for Green Bay, including trips to Jacksonville and Minnesota to begin the regular season, and because of the late kickoff time (several players commented that it is right at bed-time for them in training camp), McCarthy may be in a particular mood to just shut this one down in the second half, with as few snaps as possible, and then have his team get back to Wisconsin.
In the Sights, MLB Saturday…
For some reason the betting markets refuse to appreciate how well the Yankees are playing which is quite an anomaly – at another time the overall team play, the explosions coming off the bat of Gary Sanchez, and the stuff being thrown by Chad Green, would be atop the Sports Mediaverse highlight reels. Yet there is plenty of pick’em available for today’s early start vs. the Orioles, so that will mean #916 NY Yankees (1:05) in play, made even better by the likely absence of Adam Jones, with the Orioles not having a natural CF replacement on the roster (Nolan Reimold only had 64 career innings there before last night, and had an error that helped open the floodgates). Let's call it good to -115.
Green worked to a 1.52 over 16 AAA starts this season, and while that 2-3/3.66 as a Yankee won’t jump off the page, his last two starts showed confidence and command – twice as many strikeouts (16) as base-runners allowed (seven hits and one walk) in holding the Blue Jays and Angels to one run over 12 innings. And every pitch Green through was under game pressure, the Yankee offense only putting up a single tally behind him across those games. Last night’s working margin also has the bullpen set up well.
Dylan Bundy is a good prospect but works up in the strike zone, a 35.5 GB% not favorable without Jones chasing things down in the power alleys, and like so many young pitchers there is a considerable gap in his Home/Away confidence – 43 Ks vs. 11 walks in Camden Yards, nearly double his 31/15 ratio on the road. Over Bundy’s last three starts it has been 15 hits and eight walks over 16 IP, vs. only nine strikeouts, and he played some fly-ball roulette vs. the Nationals in his last outing, only recording a 25.0 GB%, but having those flies tracked down for a .133 BABIP.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL…
It hasn’t been a secret through these threads the Mike Zimmer is a play-on coach in the pre-season, not necessarily because he wants to win the games but because of the kind of football he wants his team to play – the Vikings committed the fewest penalties in the NFL in 2015, and that kid of discipline begins by taking everything seriously. So it should be no surprise to note that Zimmer is 10-1 in pre-season games so far, the only defeat being in what was as close to a giveaway as there would be – the Vikings played five games last summer, and the last was a meaningless 24-17 loss at Tennessee in which they still played competitively. Now there is not only the focus of playing sound fundamental football, but I believe a wish to make something happen on the scoreboard, and that leads to #278 Minnesota (1:00 Eastern) on Sunday, the Chargers being vulnerable in this setting as well. There is plenty of -4.5 in the marketplace, but up to -6 still fits.
This will mark the Viking debut in U.S. Bank Stadium, and for a team that has a chance to host playoff games this season, getting the crowd into a frenzy under the closed roof will be a major factor, especially for one of the league’s best defenses. That means a different atmosphere on Sunday than the usual pre-season affair, in particular for the kind of crowd noise that will be in play. It also helps that Minnesota brings the depth to put on a good show, even if there will not be anything from Adrian Peterson.
Peterson may regret missing the opportunity to put up numbers against a soft San Diego defensive front, one that will be without Joey Bosa into the near future; has already lost Sean Lissemore to injury; and now has to deal with the suspension of Damion Square for the first four games of the regular season. Square is allowed to play in this game but probably won’t, since the Chargers need to rebuild their rotation, and they are perilously thin up front. The OL is not a strength either, so it is unlikely that Mike McCoy will risk Philip Rivers taking more hits than is necessary, and there is not much at all to like from the San Diego back-up skill corps – after the Chargers scored a TD on the opening drive with Rivers at the helm at Tennessee two weeks ago, the only trip to the end zone over the ensuing 112 minutes of game time has been from CB Brandon Flowers on an interception return. With a quick turnaround before hosting San Francisco on Thursday, Mike McCoy will likely just want to get through this one without anyone injured.
In the Sights, Sunday MLB…
The late afternoon board brings us a couple of solid value opportunities, including one game that has already been a major topic across the thread (you’ll have to go to page 24 or so). I’ll start with that one, and it will be one-third of a unit each on #963 Chicago Cubs Full Game/Run Line/Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern). Consider the value ranges to be up to -160, -1.5 Even (there is some + out there), and 4.5 -125. This is one of those games that lines up from both directions, so I want all of the edges in play.
Jon Lester brings extremely good form, a 4-0/1.71 over his last five starts, and he plays well into a Dodger offense that has fallen to dead last in OPS against left-handers, a dismal .647. Meanwhile the Dodgers have to go with Brock Stewart, and there is the chance of this evolving into a “take one for the team” afternoon. Stewart is not built to eat innings, only averaging 5.2 across his Minor League starts and just 12 frames in three tries with the Dodgers, and there is a mess behind him – the bullpen could be without Jansen (back-to-back games and six appearances in the last eight), Liberatore (back-to-back and four-in-five) and Baez (back-to-back, including laboring out to 29 pitches yesterday). Not only is that a problem here, but Los Angeles goes to Coors for a series that starts tomorrow, and Dave Roberts knows how much that may tax his pen. The Dodgers are playing for the 13th straight day, and the starters have only managed 58.1 innings across the first 12 days of the stretch.
At Chase Field an under-rated offense goes into an over-rated pitcher this afternoon, which also brings value to #961 Cincinnati Team Total Over (4:10 Eastern), with 4.5 available at -110, and value good up to -120. The Reds are #3 in OPS since the All-Star break, and can get plenty of good swings against what continues to be a disappointing Archie Bradley, who is now at 6-11/5.25 over 140.2 MLB innings, and genuinely looks like someone pitching at that level – in particular note his ugly 4.9 BB/9 into an offense that leads MLB in OBP since the break. It isn’t just the chance to play into Bradley, but also a worn-out Diamondbacks bullpen that has fallen to dead last in ERA for the full season at 5.11, and is at a simply hideous 6.43 since the All Star break.
U.S. Election 2016 Power Rating: Democrats -675
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