Point Blank – May 25
Can Tyronn Lue cure the Cavalier funk (we know James is the lead, but who even is The Gang at this point?)…The Mets should not allow us to bet against Matt Harvey again any time soon…If anyone understands Justin Nicolino please feel free to chime in…
The OKC Thunder were not quite the team in Game 4 that they were in Game 3, but they were damn close, so much so that the Warriors simply grew tired of having to deal with it, and the mental frustrations were in full exhibit last night. That puts an unexpected plot twist into the proceedings in the Western Conference, which means that the handicapping mind also goes where it usually does at times like this – watching Toronto/Cleveland Game 5 while envisioning how each side would match up against Durant, Westbrook & Company.
What isn’t easy is projecting before tipoff what happens in Raptors/Cavaliers, although there are some early “tells” out there that once again could spark In-Running activity. The problem in this series is that even after 192 floor minutes we have to be careful with what we have learned, because some of those particulars may not even ben in play. It starts at the most unlikely place of all – does a coach who opened the playoffs on a 10-0 run even know what his rotation is going to be?
One of the thread conversations a while back was that in anointing the James Gang as the house band for Cleveland during the playoffs, there was the dilemma of wanting to press the button for “Funk 49” from the Classic Jukebox, but wondering how it could be tied in. Lue did that for us, with some rather bizarre player management that not only leaves the handicapper confused, but perhaps his team in a funk as well. So here we are, and how about a rare version with a terrific opening build, Joe Walsh live from 2007 -
You don’t think that I know your plan
What you tryin’ to hand me?
Raptors/Cavaliers #5 – Is what we have seen what we are going to see (did Tyronn Lue panic)?
A week ago Cleveland appeared to be on the verge of shifting to a higher gear, the various talented components coming together with terrific floor spacing and unselfish flow on offense, and at least a commitment to playing better defense, even if the designs on that end of the court were not of championship caliber. Not only had it been 10 straight playoffs wins, but seven of them were in double figures, and Toronto was routed by a combined 50 points in the first two games of this series. Much of that has changed. While there is no way of knowing what Lue declared on the forms as he returned across the boarder, here is something that would leave even the most experienced customs official scratching his head -
Cleveland 4th Quarter Minutes, Last 2 games
Frye 22:02
James* 18:28
Shumpert 17:40
Jefferson 17:40
Dellavedova 15:18
Irving* 14:56
Smith* 7:04
Love* 0
Thompson* 0
* - Started the game
Yes, Channing Frye, an effective role player but largely a journeyman across a career that has spanned 11 seasons with four different teams, has been give more fourth quarter minutes than any other Cavalier. This is the Channing Frye that did not even join the team until the All Star break. For many of those minutes he was joined by Jefferson, in his 14th season with six different teams, and his first in a Cleveland uniform. Meanwhile Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, starters and architects in that 10-0 opening playoff run, never left the bench.
What in the name of Bill Fitch is going on here? Yes, Love and Thompson were ineffective early in each game at Toronto. But Cleveland was +26 in the 58:10 that Love played across the first two, and +24 in the 58:30 for Thompson. By not going back to what had been working was Lue trying to be a little too smart in his rotations, or did he simply panic?
Regardless of outcome, Lue is running the risk of disrupting chemistry at a time in which his team was heavily favored to make the Finals, when advancing that chemistry was going to be desperately needed against a far superior opponent than the Raptors. It was a quick trigger pulled by a coach that lacks experience, and is also under a lot of pressure. And it is also not just about team chemistry, but understanding the individual egos of players.
So how has Lue handled things with Love, for instance?"Did I talk to him. No, he understands that Channing was playing well and I just decided to ride with Channing. Kevin understands that." Except for the rather obvious notion that if the coach did not talk to the player, how does he know that the player understands?
There is a lot for Cleveland to clean up beyond the player rotation. In winning the first two games at home, the Cavs only took 41 of 150 shots beyond the arc. At Toronto 82 of 162 shot attempts were triples. Some of this was bad offense, some a defensive adjustment by Dwane Casey, who put more focus on the paint regardless of how well Cleveland had been shooting from long range in the playoffs. Casey’s move paid off, but while it may be tempting to look to an underdog with momentum taking this many points, there is also something the coach may do tonight that begs for caution.
Item: Why you can’t trust the Raptors here
First let’s start with a natural notion that does carry weight – in going 2-6 on the playoff road so far, five of the Toronto losses have been by a dozen points or more. It wasn’t easy to lose in double figures at Indiana and Miami, considering the limitations of those teams, and while Game 1 of this series can be excused a bit because the setting was so awful, there was not much fight in Game 2. The Raptors are still a fragile bunch.
Now for Part II, and this is key to setting some In-Running focus. I believe Casey comes with a game plan to win here, as obviously he should. And I also believe he has a white flag, ironed and in pocket, ready to be waved if that plan does not work.
Here is the drift on that front – Casey’s team has not had back-to-back days off since April 27-28. This will be the 14th consecutive playoff game with only one day to prepare, and #15 is already set for Friday, then #16 if needed on Sunday. The Raptors must win a game in Cleveland to advance, but it does not have to be this one. Should things break bad early I do not expect a major chase mode from Casey, but instead a focus on having the legs of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Bismack Biyombo as fresh as possible for Friday. The Raptors can afford a loss tonight, knowing the confidence and energy they have been getting from their home crowd; what they can’t afford is the kind of loss that makes fatigue an issue for Game 6.
So what will be in the portfolio? At tipoff, probably nothing. But should the Cleveland focus be there, and the Cavaliers break well from the gate, I will be quick to react. Remember that it may not just mean Love/Thompson/Smith being effective again, but also that they should have extremely fresh legs. This could get ugly.
About Last Night…
It has been a profitable run against Matt Harvey over the recent cycle, but after last night’s showing in Washington I doubt that we get a chance in the next pass through the New York rotation – he needs to be given at least one turn off. While there has been a little baseball misfortune in the Harvey overall results, that was not the case on Tuesday – he got tagged. A bothersome sign for a pitcher of his caliber is giving up more hits than strikeouts. A more troublesome one is when there are more walks than strikeouts. But the bell goes off like a gong when it is more home runs than strikeouts. How about these counts, off of back-to-back games against the chief rival for the Mets in the N.L. East:
Batters Faced 43
Hits 16
Walks 4
Home Runs 4
Strikeouts 3
Harvey did not talk to reporters after the game, but Terry Collins did – “We’ve got to think what’s not just bet for Matt, but what’s best for us moving forward at the moment.” That is Collins setting the stage for at least a brief shutdown– it just hurts the team too much to send out a guy who is 3-7/6.03, and is not showing any signs of figuring it out.
In the Sights, for certain…
I believe they have the price point in the wrong place in the Bronx tonight, the early markets pushing Toronto as the favorite to the point that the Yankees can not be found at even money, even plus a penny or two in some key precincts, and that calls for #920 New York (7:05 Eastern).
I don’t have to be redundant about the set-up, since it has been in play rather often here of late – on nights in which that BMC bullpen is fully rested and ready to go, the Yankee starters take the mound knowing that they can cut it loose, and not concern themselves with eating innings (Nathan Eovaldi is just loving this). Ivan Nova is interesting in that he will not amp up his fastball, but instead create a contrast that might make the bullpen even more effective in the latter stages. This will be Nova’s third start with that full BMC available, working to a 1.65 over he first three, and he has done that by consistently pounding in the lower regions of the strike zone – for the full season it is a minuscule 0.9 BB/9, and a terrific 66.7 GB%. Those rates will not be maintained, but it shows a pitcher with a particular purpose, and he is hitting the targets he is aiming for. Nova can make a couple of passes through the Blue Jay lineup inducing ground balls, and not giving away free passes, then it becomes a difficult transition for the Blue Jays vs. the High Heat the rest of the way.
Meanwhile Marco Estrada will continue to confound the stat folks, and my reference to him will remain as the “Poor man’s Catfish Hunter”, a guy that consistently gets enough harmless fly balls hit to the power alleys to defy BABIP regression protocols. But this is not a ballpark made for Estrada, with relatively lazy flies off the bats of Yankee left-handers being caught by fans instead of Joey Bautista of Kevin Pillar. Estrada has only had three appearances from this mound, but it has been four home runs over 14.1 IP, and there is some logic to that.
The next possibility tonight is where logic is more difficult…
In the Sights, perhaps (and with Tampa now at -225, yes we are in)…
I believe the price is wrong on #930 Tampa Bay this morning, Matt Andriese and the Rays pushed all the way out to -190 (-200 at CRIS and clones), in a game in which key bullpen cog Alex Colome will not be available. The issue in terms of coming to grips with this one is an attempt to define Justin Nicolino, and I am not comfortable with my grading yet.
As I write so often here, to succeed in the Major’s a pitcher needs to be able to either generate strikeouts or get ground balls. Otherwise it is far too much roulette, and you do not want to give Major League hitters too many spins of the wheel. Nicolino has now gone past 100 MLB innings, with a 7-6/4.03 that would classify him as average, and average is good enough to take in this price range. But I can’t put a stamp on him yet.
Nicolino has a 2.5 K/9 across those 103.1 frames, while also only getting 44.7 percent ground-balls. A pitcher is not supposed to be able to survive that. His career tally shows more walks (31) than strikeouts (29). Betting markets view that with the utmost scorn. But can Nicolino be similar to my definition of Estrada above, someone who has a genuine ability to keep fly balls from being pulled into danger zones?
Here is why it is at least a theory – Nicolino worked to a 17-6/3.30 across 37 starts in two AA seasons, despite just 4.6 K/9. In 24 starts at AAA it was a 9-9/3.54, despite only 4.9 K/9. There is a body of work being built up that is showing that a model that shouldn’t work has, which puts this game under the microscope this evening (with so many day games already having been played before this first pitch is thrown, it will be easier to zero in). In a day and age in which the strikeout is so popular, something discussed here often already this season, the markets do not like Nicolino. Tonight it may be stretched to the point in which I may not have to make a positive judgment on Nicolino to make a small wager, but instead merely say that the markets have gone too far in their dislike.
(UPDATING: With Giancarlo Stanton out the price has been stretched to the ridiculous, Tampa now -225 in several key precincts, and that makes it a go. Few players have produced as little as Stanton in the month of May, #162 of 190 qualifiers in WAR, so his absence does not call for anywhere near this adjustment.)
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)