Point Blank – December 29
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #16
The NFL week that was, a post-Holiday cycle that brought some of the bigger outright upsets of the season, and a whole lot of bad play across the league. It leaves much to decipher heading into the final week, and some questions that will linger into the playoffs…
Item: The Seahawks and Patriots may be “Running on Empty” at RB (it is hard to do that and win in January)
Yes, Tom Brady is brilliant and the Patriots have plenty of post-season moxie. Russell Wilson has done more with less than any NFL QB of Cam Newton, and the Seahawks have a roster loaded with guys accustomed to playing into February. But both New England and Seattle are lacking something quite essential right now, the ability to hand the ball to a RB and both gain meaningful yards, plus earn the respect of the opposing defenses to slow down the pass rush, and it showed on Sunday. The two powers were literally “running on empty” in that aspect, so with another long Tuesday read ahead let’s make that the theme for a little background music, from Jackson Browne, this rarity from the Philadelphia Folk Festival in 2006, teamed up with David Lindley -
Browne has continued to make great music, last year’s “Standing in the Breach” a showcase to how Rock and Roll could still be a vehicle to express a sophistication that comes with age and experience (“Of what use is a windmill, with no Quixote left who’ll fight”). He can still write, play the guitar and sing, but he cannot run with a football, which makes him of little use to Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll in that regard.
The issues for both teams have been prime topics here on recent Tuesday’s. When the Patriots lost LeGarrette Blount they went shopping, signing Montee Ball, and then beating Tennessee despite not getting all that much out of the Brandon Bolden/Joey Iosefa tandem. Just one day after that game Steven Jackson was brought into the mix, but vs. the Jets he looked old and slow, a poor combination to go with Iosefa’s young and slow, and Bolden’s not being good enough. Patriot RBs managed only 50 yards on 19 carries vs. the Jets.
It is not just the overall numbers, or the inability to make the pass rush respect a play action fake before getting after Brady, but the fact that 3rd-and-short, or Goal-to-go, requires someone that can get the job done. The Patriots were 0-3 on 3rd-and-1 against the Jets, both Iosefa and Bolden failing on runs, and then a Brady incompletion on the third try. In the playoffs, those situations become magnified.
Yet as bad as the New England RBs were, they far out-played those in Seattle uniforms. Without Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls there just is not much there, and the Seahawks could only achieve 21 yards out of 16 carries from the position against St. Louis. That was without the Rams respecting the run threat much at all, getting after Wilson enough for four sacks for -36 yards. Fred Jackson looks old, Bryce Brown has not been the answer at other places, and there is a reason why Seattle sold Christine Michael to Dallas for peanuts back in September.
Lynch is at least back in Seattle now, but all that Carroll offered yesterday was – “We’re hoping he will get well and get back. We’ll find out on a day-to-day basis.” If he does not return, the likelihood of winning on the playoff road with the current cast of characters is not promising.
Item: As for the Belichick decision to kickoff in OT…
Gosh was this post-mortem brutal to sit through, a feeding frenzy from the Sports Mediaverse, and in particular the fledglings in the Twittersphere, trying to castrate Belichick for choosing to kick off first in OT. Among the most egregious examples was this back page from the New York Daily News, although admittedly “getting it right” has never really been a part of that operation –
Or how about this piece from Steve Politi at NJ.com, among the many, and his conclusion of – “It is hard to come up a bigger bonehead decision by a more accomplished football coach than this one.”
But what was the reality? Prior to Sunday, there had been 68 overtime games since the NFL changed the rules back in 2012. Here is how the team that got the ball first fared –
33-32-3
That is it. It was about as close to being a f’ing coin flip as there is in sports, although it has now gone to 35-32-3 since. What was Belichick banking on? Stephen Gostkowski has a 68.3 percent career touch-back rate, and had been 5-5 in that category when the OT coin toss took place. He then made it 6-6. The only way that the New England was not going to get the ball in OT was for the Jets to make an 80-yard TD march. The percentages of that were low.
Meanwhile for all of the talk of “get Brady the ball first!” what had the Patriot offense accomplished? Without Amendola/Edelman/Vollmer/Blount/Lewis they had one touchdown drive the entire game, and that was a gut-out that required a pair of fourth-down conversions. Belichick had already made a statement about that offense when he chose to run out the final 1:53 of the first half, feeling the percentages were better to get to the locker room, rather than risk giving the Jets the ball back with a chance to score. Belichick’s OT decision did not pan out, but through football science there was a lot behind it, a far more complex decision than the media miscreants made it out to be. Be careful what you read out there.
Hell, the next thing you know someone might be comparing Ryan Mallett and Brandon Weeden to Brady…
Item: Ryan Mallet and Brandon Weeden quarterbacked teams that beat the spread by 38.5 points
Perhaps New England having Brady is not such a big deal at playoff time anyway, when you can grab guys like Mallett and Weeden off the streets. Sure I’m joking, but there is an interesting perspective you can get on the NFL by looking at their Sunday numbers. Neither had been with his particular team two weeks earlier, which meant not only the lack of knowledge of the playbook, but also the problem of being surrounded by some players in the skill positions that were also trying to get up to speed with their teams, in particular the gutted Ravens skill corps.
So how did Mallett and Weeden do on Sunday? They led their teams to wire-to-wire wins, combining to go 43-65-474 through the air, with three TDs and no interceptions. That computes to 103.0 on the NFL Passer Rating charts. Brady’s season? It checks in at 103.1.
How does this happen? There is an aspect of injuries that is subtle, but often over-looked. While it is natural to downgrade a team when inexperienced, and in truth not overly talented, players have to fill in at key positions, one of the things it does is hamstring the opposition in terms of their preparation. There is no film study to be able to work with, and sometimes they can only guess as to what the game plans are going to be. As such, they can be put on their heels if the damaged team comes out aggressively, which Baltimore certainly did.
Of course the numbers must be taken with a grain of salt – it was the fact that the wins were wire-to-wire that helped each QB to have good numbers; in particular one has to wonder how Mallett and that Raven skill cast would have fared if they had to play from behind. But they did show what indeed can happen in a given game in this league.
Item: Kirk Cousins made one of the dumbest mistakes in NFL history, yet still had a great game
Sub-Item: What does that say about the Philadelphia defense (or more to the point, what Chip Kelly has laid on them)
You cannot give points away when you are a road dog and survive often. That is what Cousins did at Philadelphia on Saturday night, his kneel-down before halftime costing the Redskins an almost certain three points, and possibly six or seven (Jeff Gruden said that a fade pass to DeSean Jackson had been the play call). Yet the Redskins went on to win by 14, Cousins sporting a 31-46-365, with four TDs and no interceptions. It does indeed say good things about his development, having matured when given a full season to settle into the roll. It says great things about Jordan Reed, who is playing at a very high level (25 receptions for 333 yards the last three games, with five TDs). But perhaps it is most of all an indictment of a Philadelphia defense that looks gassed, Kelly’s insistence on going uptempo despite no real logical basis for it with this roster taking a toll.
The Eagles have allowed an average of 36 points and 450.2 yards per game over their last six outings. The NFL averages this season are 22.9 and 352.9. Naturally some of what Philly has allowed needs to be tempered by the fact that the defense is on the field for more plays, which makes per-play charts a better indicator of efficiency. But even that barometer comes up short at this stage of the season because that workload also takes a toll – the Eagles have had to take on 106 plays more than NFL average, the equivalent of nearly seven full quarters of game action.
This defense is tired and frustrated. If Kelly is still their HC next season they will begin fresh, but will the frustration go away? Kelly is not the only coach dealing with a potential disconnect right now, but at Green Bay it is on the other side of the ball…
Item: The McCarthy Hearings, Part III
Let’s backtrack a little here, to last Tuesday’s column, and the Aaron Rodgers comment of “We just don’t really have a clear-cut direction”, an important way of noting that the Green Bay offense had struggled much more than the scoreboard would indicate at Oakland. That was a prelude to Sunday, when the Packers were simply dominated by the Arizona defense, managing only 2.9 yards per play, with Rodgers being sacked nine times for a -78 yards (and only his nimbleness preventing that count from possibly reaching a dozen).
So now with the NFC North on the line against Minnesota this week, it begs the question as to whether this offense has any real identity. What appeared to be a focus on the ground game in that win over Dallas a couple of weeks ago, as Mike McCarthy took over the play calling, may have only been the circumstances of the setting, holding a lead most of the way against a tired Cowboy defense that was playing on the road for the second time in short succession, after an intense Monday night affair at Washington.
Here is what does matter, McCarthy admitting that it was not just an awful showing by the OL, but some tactics involved as well – “You cannot let your quarterback get hit. I take that very personal. That's not a good job schematically, execution, any way you want to shake it. He cannot get hit like that."
Here is what has not been solved, and at this stage there are no personnel fixes – while the OL failures were the most visible part of Sunday’s, what was not in focus as much is the continuing inability of this WR corps to get open, and this was despite the absence of Tyrann Mathieu for Arizona. So this part of McCarthy’s follow-up echoes loudly – “We’ve got to get open quicker, we’ve got to beat man-to-man coverage, we’ve got to quit worrying about plays (called). We just need to focus on execution.”
The Packers will bring a lot of big-game experience into this week’s high pressure setting, but the serious handicapper may want to put an * by that; this does not look like a team that can snap their fingers and get right back on track, the offensive playbook not something they are comfortable with, which is ominous this late in a season. That is not to say that the Vikings bring value; they were a deer-in-the-headlights in the first meeting with Green Bay, and this is the first real major pressure game for this coaching staff and roster (note that they are 1-4 against teams currently slated to make the playoffs and 9-1 in all other games). But edges in savvy that some will attribute to the Packers may not genuinely be there.
Item: Make a note to invite those lauding Johnny Manziel’s Sunday performance to your next poker game
The Sports Mediaverse was awfully kind to Manziel following Cleveland’s competitive loss at Kansas City, and in truth he did play with a lot of passion. But be careful with those positive interpretations, even one coming from a player like - Donte Whitner on Johnny Manziel after loss to Chiefs: 'We have a starting QB for next year'
Just what did Manziel do to show that he should start at QB? He was only 13-32 through the air, generating just 136 yards, with an interception and no TDs. That is a 40.6 rating that not only does not make you the starter next season, it does not get you invited to many training camps. But there were those 11 rushes for 108 yards, showing how dangerous he can be, right? Not necessarily. Kansas City was playing without Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, the two edge rushers who would have had the responsibility of keeping Manziel in the pocket, Dee Ford and Frank Zombo being much lesser game influencers at those positions.
Manziel’s runs were a perfect storm opportunity of his strength going into a vulnerability that the Chiefs had. His passes were another matter entirely, and for perhaps the savviest take on his Sunday showing let’s go to the good folks at Pro Football Focus, in their weekly rating of the worst player at each position –
Quarterback: Johnny Manziel, Browns (-5.5)
“Manziel was good when he scrambled yesterday, but was bad when asked to actually throw the football. His -9.8 pass grade is one of the worst we’ve ever recorded. When the Chiefs didn’t blitz and Manziel was forced to throw into coverage, he completed just 39 percent of his passes and averaged a mere 4.4 yards per attempt. He also threw a terrible interception and had two more bad passes that should have been intercepted. He looked uncomfortable all game long, and yesterday was not a good day for those who believe he’s made any significant development as a quarterback.”
If Manziel is starting for the Browns when the 2016 season begins they are in trouble. And it does become a part of the Battle for the Bottom this week…
Item: We’re Number #1! (in the draft)
There are five teams in the running to potentially finish the season tied at 4-12 at the bottom of the NFL heap, and claim the #1 pick in next year’s draft. Does that matter this week? It just may, although tracking will be difficult because the coaches will not be in the mindset to talk about it. Ordinarily it is not the sort of thing I would even bring up, but the Tennessee Titans are in one of the more pure “tank” settings you will see.
If the Titans lose they finish 3-13 and the #1 pick is theirs, even if Cleveland also loses this week to fall to 3-13 (Tennessee will win because of a weaker strength of schedule). So what on earth would make a flat and downtrodden team, one that has been beaten by at least 17 points in each of the last three games, put much of an effort out there at all? There is certainly no reason to risk injury to Marcus Mariota.
The oddsmakers do not have to deal with this one yet because of the Indianapolis QB injuries, but it is indeed a tricky setting, one in which Titan apathy is a genuine point spread factor. As for the Browns it is a different story – the opportunity to knock a division rival like Pittsburgh out of the playoffs may be enough to light some spark.
FWIW, the other teams that could fall into the 4-12 mix, should the Titans and Browns both somehow manage to win, are the Chargers, Cowboys and 49ers, but I do not believe this impacts their mindsets. There is another team out there worth following, an off-the-radar setting in which they may bring more energy than expected…
Item: The Rams will spend the week in Napa
It might be common handicapping theory that St. Louis should have a major letdown after upsetting the Seahawks, especially having to close out the season with back-to-back road games. Be careful with that. I believe the Rams have come up with a rather savvy plan for their preparation to face the 49ers, spending the week in the lovely Napa Valley, and holding their practices at Redwood Middle School. Instead of a letdown, this might be a way of adding more steam to the momentum of the current 3-0 SU and ATS run, one in which they have beaten the market expectations by 35 points.
This is something that will be worth following in the reading between the lines over the course of the week. If nothing else, they sure as hell won’t struggle to find a nice cabernet to drink on New Year’s Eve.
Vegas: Monday with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
I am not much of a burger and fries guy, having been brought up in a household in which my mother put fabulous meals on the table, and then having a chance to travel and experience so many unique cuisines through the years. But every once in a while the taste buds go there, and when they do it is almost always going to mean a trek to one of my truly favorite places in all of Las Vegas, a little mom-and-pop (literally) shop called Fat Boy, at 4425 East Stewart. The box score sorting on the first Monday after Christmas may become a tradition at that place, a time in which those tastes appeal to off-set the Holiday menus, and also a chance to wish the greetings of the season to some truly nice folks (you are a name when you order, not a number, and from your second visit on your name will be remembered).
The celebrity chef hamburger is ubiquitous in Las Vegas, with the likes of Gordon Ramsey, Emeril Lagasse, Mario Batali, Bobby Flay, Michael Mina, Rick Moonen, Hubert Keller and Laurent Tourondel among the many that will charge you around $12-$18 for one, fries not included. Supply and demand models seem to indicate that the consumer will pay those exorbitant prices for the stamp of such well-known names on the marquee, even if none of them ever actually specialized in making burgers. It is silly, and if any of you ever see me sitting down in such a place, please feel free to squeeze some ketchup or mustard into my eyes.
Instead I go to Fat Boy, one of those little places you quietly root for when they first open, and then feel confident as they withstand the test of time, their 8th anniversary coming up in February. It is family owned and operated; the burgers are hand-made to order, the flat top having been seasoned so well through the years to create a nice char; and the fries are terrific (I prefer the steak cut; if you are there with friends you can order the “chencho fries”, which are topped with a green chile sauce, but can be overload for the solo diner).
The menu is actually extensive for such a small place, with a variety of Mexican offerings plus pizza, but I go when the mood calls for a well-made burger. Monday’s photo is not a great one, since a nice window table with the sun streaming in was available, but a double “cheeseboyger”, with fries and a drink, pleasantly got me through the NFL stats, costing significantly less than half of what a similar combination on the Strip would go for. It was great to see the friendly faces behind the counter again, the smiles of those that put pride into what they do, competing against the Strip establishments and fast food corporations and more than holding their own.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)