Point Blank – December 1
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #12
The NFL week that was, from the collective turkey’s of the NFC East to some other divisions that are starting to get a bit interesting. And now for some challenges ahead – if you think that getting deeper into the season helps because there is so much more data to work with you have some fumbles to recover, with several teams showing recent form that suggests that there is a state of confusion in play.
Item: Could the Dolphin coaching staff be even weaker now than under Joe Philbin (a "State of Confusion" in Miami)?
The feel-good story was not all that long ago, the Dolphins being so glad to be rid of Joe Philbin, and so enjoying the energy of Dan Campbell (remember those “Oklahoma” drills?), that they responded from a bye week under the new regime to blast Tennessee on the road, and then play arguably the best first half of football any team has all season in that destruction of Houston (a game that has turned out to do nothing but jam up data-bases with counter-productive statistics). The energy level was terrific.
But energy and emotion do not get you far in the NFL, where the ability to stay on an even keel, and make proper adjustments week-in and week-out, is the difference between winning and losing. The Dolphins have turned into a mess after that 2-0 opening under Campbell, going 1-4 over the past five weeks, with each of the losses coming in double figures. Now it has a chance to get even messier, a most rare setting in which an interim HC was given the ability to fire another coach, Campbell dismissing OC Bill Lazor, who actually had out-ranked him when the season began. So how do we begin to understand the Dolphins with five games remaining? Since it is another long Tuesday read you are going to need some musical background, and to set the tone this week it is time to reach back to Ray Davies and the Kinks, “State of Confusion” being most appropriate -
There's flooding in the basement,
There's water all around.
There's woodworm in the attic
And the ceiling just fell down.
Davies knew how to write a portrait, and keeping in mind that the Dolphins were trailing the Jets 21-0 late in the 3rd quarter, and 38-14 until a meaningless TD with 0:05 remaining, that is about how they looked.
The issues are not just on offense; the defense allowed the pedestrian Jets to roll for 411 yards, without turning the ball over. And this was just a few days after Ndamukong Suh had addressed the team on Monday, which has also turned out to be contentious – you can read Adam Beasley’s take in the Miami Herald. Despite having enough talent on hand to play winning football, there is a mess on the Dolphin sidelines right now that must be a significant part of setting a proper power rating. And similar issues are in play in Philadelphia as well…
Item: The Eagles can’t (won’t?) defend
The full-season Philadelphia defensive statistics will still look respectable, but those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt – the current effort levels are so low that the most recent results have to carry some added weight, unless there can be some specific indications that they are ready to plug back in. In back-to-back games, the Eagles have allowed five TD passes without getting an interception. That had never happened before in NFL history, and it came vs. a pair of passing attacks that have been below average vs. the rest of the league, Matthew Stafford #18 in Passer Rating and Jameis Winston #24.
If you watched either of those games, you saw a rather alarming lack of passion. Players were walking back to the huddle, without much spring in their steps, and it does feed in to the notions as to whether Chip Kelly has lost the locker room. There is much to be said for that, especially as the job rumors about him heading back to the college ranks circulate, as well as open talk of him possibly being traded to Tennessee, which is loud enough for the players to hear
Could a case also be made that this is a defense exasperated at the speed Kelly keeps trying to get his ill-suited offense to set. It is a pace that has had the Eagle defenders on the field for 764 snaps, the most in the NFL, and naturally they are dead last in time of possession deficit, nearly 83 full minutes. Consider just how big the gap is between Philly and the rest of the league – if we throw out Houston, which I will get to in a moment, the Eagles are snapping the ball 3.5 seconds faster than any other team. It is not doing either the offense or the defense much good.
Now the question going forward – is the awful play of the past two games merely the defense wearing down, or is there really a fractured locker room, the latter being a consequence of the former? That is where much of the reading between the lines will go this week, but one thing is certain – I will not measure this defense based on their full-season statistics. And if you think pace doesn’t matter that much…
Item: As Houston plays slower, the defense plays (much) better
The changing nature of the Houston season was a topic here last Tuesday, what was once a frenetic offense slowing down, and what had been a frustrated and under-achieving defense beginning to pick things up. It got even more pronounced on Sunday, in an easy 24-6 domination of New Orleans. The offense clicked off plays at 33.1 SPS, nearly 11 full seconds slower than their rate through the first seven games, and it enabled the defense to handle Drew Brees and the Saints attack just about as well as they are going to be handled, the first time in 155 games they had not scored an offensive TD.
As recapped here from different directions, the Texans reached an absolute rock-bottom in that horrific first half at Miami a while back. The very next game Bill O’Brien brought some sanity to the offense, slowing the pace by about five SPS, and the defense just happened to get ignited around the same time. Now that talented unit has developed a full swagger, having allowed only two TDs over the last 18 quarters, and with the playoffs in sight you can expect that energy level to increase. At the same time, anticipate the offensive flow remaining at the more recent gear, which makes their #2 for the full-season a misleading count.
One of the things that I try to focus on often is how winning impacts the energy level of a team, and has them taking the extra steps during practice each week that can show up on the playing field come Sunday. You can read about the current Houston attitude in that regard here.
Item: The Packers had four downs to get a receiver open in the end zone
It is not news that the Green Bay passing game has been suffering without Jordy Nelson, so I want to avoid redundancy here, but just how clear of an example did we see on Thanksgiving night vs. Chicago? Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were in position to win the kind of games that favorites pull out, overcoming a sluggish evening to still have a first-and-goal setting at the end, and what happened? Through four snaps against a lackluster Bears secondary, they could not get a receiver open in the end zone. That may not change down the stretch because the personnel is not there to make changes, and what you do want to file away is that the Green Bay offense produced 13 points, and Rodgers had a 62.4 Passer Rating, in the first “Second Look” against a division opponent. The remaining schedule brings two more of them.
Take a look at how much the Rodgers numbers have fallen from last year –
CMP% YPP PR
2014 65.6 8.4 112.2
2015 60.5 6.9 97.4
Much of that is the loss of Nelson, who caught 98 passes at 15.5 per reception in a sterling 2014 campaign. And while Randall Cobb was effective as a #2 guy in the past, look at how much that has changed as he becomes the prime target, and hence goes up against the best cover CB of the opposing defense –
Randall Cobb, Yards Per Catch
2014 14.1
2015 11.8
That matters. The Bears had one of their better defensive games of the season in that second look, and now there is a quick one coming up for the Lions.
Item: The Rams can’t block
A storyline through the middle part of the season was that the Rams had a Super Bowl defense, a Super Bowl RB in Todd Gurley, but a passing attack that was not ready to carry its share of the load. Now they have even less than that, injuries depleting the OL to the point at which it may be the league’s worst. How bad are things? Despite Gurley being the key to the offense, he only got the ball nine times on running plays out of 71 offensive snaps, and a few of those came out of the Wildcat formation, to try to work around those deficiencies. How bad is the group up front? Instead of me sorting through the details, how about Jeff Gordon’s weekly grade for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch –
This may not just be growing pains for an OL trying to learn to play together, but rather a group that simply is not very good, and lacks upside.
Item: 49ers 6.7 Cardinals 4.8 (the good and bad of Blaine Gabbert)
Heading in to Sunday a case could have easily been made that the Cardinals were no worse than the #4 team in the NFL, and that the 49ers could have easily been dead last at #32. So while the final score will not set off major fireworks because it fell close to the point spread, there is an element of the box score that jumps out – San Francisco convincingly won the yards-per-play column by 6.7 to 4.8. Only Detroit’s domination of Philadelphia brought a bigger margin on this week’s board.
How do you win that category by 1.9 and still lose? Naturally a -2 turnover differential plays a big part. But this is also a time in which you need to go beyond the traditional box score and dig a little deeper. The 49er offense faced nine third-down plays, and did not convert any of them. That helps to define Gabbert, especially in what may otherwise look like a positive showing.
Gabbert threw for a career-high 318 yards, and has indeed been respectable since taking over at QB (his passer rating is 91.0, Colin Kaepernick played to a 78.5). But “respectable” pretty much sums it up – he can get the ball to open receivers, but when it is time to step up and make a play, his ceiling is low. It showed on the third downs plays vs. the Cardinals, and that was on the heels of going 2-11 in that category the previous week at Seattle.
From a distance, Gabbert’s box score might fool some folks. Don’t be one of them. From up close, it was much easier to see, as Eric Branch detailed well in the San Francisco Chronicle.
Item: The Patriots, now and later
The news concerning Rob Gronkowski was actually positive for New England – he is likely to only miss two games. That matters in two directions, because while the immediate future for the passing game is rather bleak, when the playoffs come around Gronkowski and Danny Amendola will be around, and possibly Julian Edelman as well. But in terms of futures pricing, the current realities play a part, since the home field advantage is no firmly back in play (Denver now holding the head-to-head tie-breaker off of Sunday’s win).
Consider losing Gronkowski/Edelman/Amendola/Dion Lewis in a short cycle - those are four players among the best in the NFL at their particular roles. They are roles that are not plug-and-play, especially when it comes down to the rhythm of the offense. As great as Tom Brady is, he is not going to suddenly develop much chemistry with the spare parts left on the shelf. There were only nine passes completed to WRs at Denver, and while TE Scott Chandler had a solid game (5-58 and a TD), he becomes a much bigger focus for opposing defenses with Gronkowski sidelined.
The New England offense is going to be both less efficient, and also slower, over the next game or two. It will provide some of the most intense reading between the lines this week, because while an Under would be a fair target to take advantage of those issues, it will require the Philadelphia defense actually bringing something to the proceedings. There is plenty to search through, between now and kickoff.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review Journal NFL box score page
If you are like me, the first Monday after Thanksgiving requires a change of pace. For as great as the traditional feast is, and the pleasures that those leftovers can bring with just a little loving care, at a certain point a transition is needed, the taste buds calling for a shock to re-charge. Las Vegas is a great city when that is the protocol, and this Monday the box score sorting was done via a bowl of “Hu Tieu Satay”, a Vietnamese noodle soup with a terrific blend of spices and flavors that can be found at Pho Kinh Do (4300 Spring Mountain Road).
This is not the subtleness of a bowl of Pho, or the exotic combination that makes Bun Bo Hue so iconic, but instead a particular soup that is difficult to find, which makes Pho Kinh Do a part of the rotation (the other menu items are also consistent, including good banh mi sandwiches). There is a lot of heat, and some peanuts bringing a thickness to the broth, with also the acidity and brightness from tomato, lime and cucumber cut into match sticks (yes, they work, but only if added in at the very end, so that they maintain their crunch). Each slurp brings a slightly different combination of flavors, which is part of the charm, and it stretched the imagination on a day in which it required some stretching, seeing that the 49ers beat the Cardinals by 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play. That one was not easy to reconcile at first…
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