Point Blank – November 27
Weekend Edition - Balls to the Wall (to Wall)…Here comes Winter Storm Cara…What to do when games are played in a Mickey Mouse Arena…Some scheduling set-ups really can produce a “Pearl”…
Chip Kelly will be coaching on Saturday’s next season; Matt Cassell will still be playing on Sunday’s in this one; and no one may be able to say “the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field” come playoff time. That is the quick sort through the Thursday leftovers, now time to crank it up for the special cycle ahead, with wall-to-wall football and basketball taking place over the next three days. Hang loose, because there are going to be many more line movements than usual, especially in Nevada, where a big weekend crowd adds significantly to the volume.
The first thing you want to do today is add the weather forecasts to all of your statistics, matchups, power ratings and trends – Winter Storm Cara will be a participant on many of the playing fields. Cara is going to bring wind and cold rain through a broad path that includes #122 Buffalo, #124 Akron, #128 Toledo, #130 Central Michigan, #132 Arkansas and #144 TCU today, but by passing through may not be a huge factor on the Saturday board, which will bring cold temperatures to many venues, but not major wind or precipitation.
Here is a look at the national picture –
For individual game forecasts I suggest your use this reference, a source that brings the benefit of showing the wind direction laid over the playing field.Now time to head inside...
Courting Advantages – Part I, games at strange places
As you watch many of these NCAA holiday tourney week games unfold, it is not just about adjusting the power ratings of the teams for playing on neutral courts, but also for the peculiarities of the tourneys and the courts themselves. The starting times can play having for some of the teams, with the fact that Gonzaga’s game vs. Texas A&M tipped off at 9 AM for the Bulldogs on their body clocks likely a contributing factor (though they may handle 9:30 today a bit better because of the acclimation). And a lot of these games are being played in make-shift gyms that can have awkward sight lines, which can certainly impact offensive efficiency, especially in the first round.
One such venue is the “Wide World of Sports Complex” in Orlando, an Disney/ESPN joint venture. It is not a bad place for a mega-tourney that would have several games being played at the same time, which was a big part of the design, because those are rare. But when it comes down to one game on the prime court, it is not an easy place for the shooters to acclimate. Kudos to poster “Al from Dadeville” for bringing it into a thread yesterday, as Alabama/Xavier was wrapping up, and take a look at how that venue played out through the day –
Wide World of Sports Complex
Projected Scores 150.6
Actual Scores 136.8
FG% 40.6
FT% 66.9
Many of you will be familiar with this particular exercise, because it is one that I go through in the NCAA tournament each season, showing how the venues themselves may have impact the game flows. That can be even more valuable for these unusual venues. Note that their greatest impact will be in the opening round, especially in the first half of those games, before the players get a chance to settle in. And when you see some of these locale’s have a significant impact, also be sure to file it away for the first round of play next November.
Courting Advantages – Part II, there’s no place like home (on some nights)
One of those subtle edges that can be a part of your handicapping thought processes each November is to look for college basketball teams that are at home on a Friday night, and their football team also has a home game the following day. Since many students and alums turn it into a double-header weekend that can mean better crowds than usual for what are almost always non-conference hoops settings, and it can energize the coaches and players to impress fans that they want to have come back for games the rest of the season. Here are the teams that fall under that heading for Friday -
#734 Rice (I do not believe it matters at all here)
#738 Oklahoma State (Bedlam week, although the Cowboys have some injury issues)
#796 Minnesota (though the 2 PM local starting time does not help)
#808 Florida
#810 Auburn (Iron Bowl week, more on this one in a moment)
As noted previously, these are not automatic play-on settings, but rather games in which the home court might be worth another point or two, and if that fits in with the rest of the handicap that can mean something. Like tonight in “the loveliest village on the plain”…
In the Sights, NCAA Hoops…
How about this – there are only standing room tickets available this evening for an Auburn Tigers home basketball game, and even those are going for $16. It does say something about the home courts on football weekends that I have written about over the past couple of weeks, but this one stands about above most of the others – in Bruce Pearl’s first chance to show the alums something on a home Iron Bowl week there will be a much more intense atmosphere than usual, and that helps to put #810 Auburn into play.
The key is that the Tigers can turn that energy into something, with the chemistry of the new faces already building – transfer Kareem Canty (Marshall) is showing both his floor savvy and explosiveness, averaging 19.3 points and 5.3 assists per game; 6-10 transfer Tyler Harris (Providence) has become a force down low with 15.3 points and 8.0 rebounds; and JuCo T. J. Dunans is averaging 15.3 points, 3.0 assists and 2.7 rebounds. Mix them in with returnees Cinmeon Bowers, TJ Lang and Tahj Shamsid-Dean, along with promising freshmen Horace Spencer and Bryce Brown, and Pearl has a lot of weapons to work with, which explains the 83.7 ppg through their first three games. Now not only is there the focus to put on a show, but with a full week to prepare, it means plenty of time to scout a vulnerable opponent.
Northwestern State began the season with promise, led by PG Jalan West, and West showed why with 25 points against Mississippi in the opener. But he was lost for the season with an injury in the final minute of that one, and the Demons do not have the experience (two freshmen starting, the only senior in the rotation being Matt Killian off the bench), or depth to make up for his absence. There have already been home losses to the likes of LSU-Alexandria and UL-Monroe, and they struggled to put away Louisiana College 86-80 on Wednesday night, an odd scheduling layout that leaves little time to prepare for Auburn, especially with Thanksgiving thrown into the mix. There is no particular scoreboard pressure for Mike McConathy and his team tonight, with road games at Arkansas and Baylor coming up over the next week, which opens the door for Pearl to get exactly the kind of win he is looking for.
And what is Pearl looking for? How about this take, after that 92-62 win over Georgia Southern last Friday – "I thought the second half defensively in our last contest we had a bit of an eye-opening experience in the sense that even though we played pretty good defense in the first half we didn't get a lot of fruit from it. Then in the second half we were able to wear the opponent down a little bit, we created offense from our defense and the basketball was exciting." Note that the fact that the basketball was “exciting” is something he emphasized, because he knows it matters in selling his program to what has largely been a football crowd in the past. Consider the value meter to extend up to -16.
In the Sights, NCAA Football…
Time for a cut-and-paste from Monday, and I hope that many of you were able to grab some of the -34 that was available on Oregon at the time, but the handicap still fits up to -36...
"Scroll up a bit, re-read the takes on Oregon and Oregon State, and then go ahead and put #140 Oregon (time change to 4:00 Eastern; 1:00 Pacific) in the pocket. This was a difficult game for the oddsmakers to price, largely because those recent Beaver scoreboards did not come close to showcasing how depleted the team is, and while UCLA and Washington were holding back for key games on deck, the Ducks can let it flow here, giving the seniors a chance to go out in style. A State defense that has had to face 157 rushing attempts already in November has a short practice week to recuperate, and it is even more difficult to do that when the pilot light has long gone out. This price will likely not get any better."
Here are the "scroll-ups" referred to, as part of the Monday column -
Item: Vernon Adams had more TD passes than incompletions vs. USC
Just to follow-up, since Adams and the Oregon Ducks have been a topic here a few times recently. On Saturday he riddled the Trojan defense for 407 passing yards in only 25 attempts, six of them going for TDs, just five falling incomplete. Over the past three games the Oregon offense has averaged 8.9 yards per play, and that has to make Oregon State HC Gary Anderson and DC Kelaokalani Sitake want to go into a dark place and hide…
Item: Here is how bad it was for Oregon State vs. Washington
The 52-7 final score, making the third straight loss for the depleted Beavers by 30 points or more, certainly paints a dismal portrait. The reality is even more harsh. Three weeks ago UCLA led 41-0 in the third quarter at Corvallis, and Jim Mora was kind enough to have the scoreboard end that way. This past Saturday it was 52-0 Washington with 5:57 left in the third quarter, and Chris Petersen also chose to not have his team score again. But Petersen had to work at it.
After scoring on their first drive of the second half, running the ball on 10 of those 11 plays, there were nothing but runs the rest of the way (if you want the specifics, 43 of 44 second-half snaps were runs). The last three Washington drives got to the Oregon State 16-yard line, the 15 and the 10. On each of them Petersen chose a straight handoff into the line on both third down and fourth down, essentially letting State know what was coming, and that is how points got kept off the board. Had the Huskies tried at all, it would have taken nothing for three more TDs to have hit the board.
In the Sights, Saturday Market Basket…
Time to let the markets work for us today, and with #181 North Carolina now available at -3.5, after an opener of -7 back on Sunday evening, the chance to put several key Tar Heel win #’s in the pocket makes this a solid value fit. There is not a significant home advantage when these two meet at this site, and the magnitude of what it means for the visitors this time means even more fans in Carolina blue. A much improved Tar Heel defense under Gene Chizik has made a substantial difference, as has the maturation of Marqise Williams as he gets deeper into Larry Fedora’s playbook, but this can be as much a play against State – the Wolfpack have handled the weak this season, but it has been an 0-3 SU and ATS dive against the only opponents that are assured bowl bids, the defense being abysmal in those matchups, and that goes to 0-4 in each category if Virginia Tech wins today to become bowl eligible.
In the Sights, Sunday NFL Market Basket...
With 48 rising up to 51 in the Saints/Texans matchup, it is time to get in play with #252 Under. The Saints will be better organized and less vulnerable to big plays under the leadership of Dennis Allen, while the recent Houston defensive surge has come partially from an under-achieving unit getting healthy again (Brian Cushing in particular being back to his old self), and as noted in the Tuesday column, the offense is also playing at a slower, and saner, pace since that "last straw" of the debacle at Miami.
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