Point Blank – November 24
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #11
The NFL weekend that, sorting through some issues to bring both better clarity out of the results, and a better feel for what those results will mean going forward -
Item: Thomas Rawls “Brought it on Home” for the Seahawks
No, I am not going to suggest that an undrafted rookie is a better fit for Seattle right now that Marshawn Lynch. “Beast Mode”, you know? But it is time to take a serious look at Thomas Rawls, in particular with the issues these Seahawks have in the OL. Rawls had been effective in his early action, including carrying a big load in that near-miss at Cincinnati early in the season, and then when a big load of the offense got thrust on his shoulders vs. San Francisco on Sunday he “brought it on home”. So with another long read ahead, and the cheap excuse for some Lou Rawls already established, how about that special voice in his classic duet with Sam Cooke for a little background, and a tribute to quite a day from an unsung RB -
How good was Rawls? He carried 30 times for 209 yards and a TD, and caught three passes, for 46 yards and another score. The 255 yards is the high for any RB this season, and no rookie RB in NFL history had ever had 250 yard from scrimmage, a rushing TD and a TD reception in the same game. And this is a guy that wasn’t even drafted. Rawls has been confident when given the chance, and has also brought a quicker burst off the mark than Lynch, which may indeed be a factor with an OL that is not opening a lot of space. Now that the samples are getting close, the numbers warrant at least a little thought –
Att Yards YPR 20+
Lynch 111 417 3.8 1
Rawls 101 604 6.0 6
No, Rawls has not really been that much better – you have to adjust for Lynch being the guy that defenses are keying on. But with the prospect that Lynch may need surgery (he is on his way to Philadelphia this week to meet with a specialist), there is no guarantee that he is going to be available any time soon. The numbers say that there need not be any adjustment for Lynch being out. NFL reality tells us that the Rawls numbers will regress as he becomes a target for opposing defenses. But might that quicker step be something that legitimately helps this offense?
Item: Jameis Winston threw five TD passes with 0 interceptions (and it was not the best part of Tampa Bay’s Sunday)
Rawls one-upped Winston in doing something no rookie had ever done before; Winston throwing five TD passes without an interception only tied a record, instead of setting one. Of course, you had to go all the way back to Chicago’s Ray Buivid in 1937 for that record that Winston matched. But here is the key for a Buccaneer squad that has now reached 5-5 and has a remaining schedule that allows for a legit Wild Card run – the showing by Winston was only one piece of a Sunday puzzle that connected to form a complete picture.
Yes, the passing game got better, which was going to happen with the return of Vincent Jackson, who caught four passes for 56 yards and a TD. With Austin Seferian-Jenkins expected to be available this week, all hands will be on deck for the first time since the second week of the season, so they should continue to improve.
But just as important was Doug Martin showing some major burst in rolling for 235 yards, the fourth time in the last seven games that he has topped 100, and a defense that held the Eagles out of the end zone for the final 36:00 of play, coming up with three sacks and three interceptions. It all added up to a team playing with confidence across the board, much of that feeding off of the three early Winston TD passes to put them up 21-7, and it shows what can happen to a team when they have a field leader that can make some plays.
This is one of the subtle, yet important, aspect of understanding the sport – for as brilliant as Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are, their teammates also play harder for them than they would for other QBs, because they know their efforts can be rewarded with a “W”. Those efforts sag with it is Josh McCown, Mike Glennon, Josh Freeman, and Josh Johnson, who have been behind center the past five seasons in Tampa. Things are changing with the Bucs.
They may also be changing for the Falcons, in a different direction…
Item: When did Matt Ryan turn 40?
Atlanta’s 5-0 opening feels so long ago that it feels as though it was another season. Now the Falcons are 6-4, one of the losses being at home vs. Tampa Bay, which could matter later in a tie-breaker. Before their bye they suffered a frustrating 17-16 loss at San Francisco when the offense could only reach the end zone once, including a failure to finish on their final drive, resulting in Dan Quinn’s decision to kick a FG from just inside the two-yard line. It was hoped that some time off would help to slow the bleeding, and an unimposing Indianapolis defense was on the way to help Ryan and the offense regain their rhythm. Which they seemingly did, for a while. But after putting three long TD drives together, the final seven possessions were four punts and three turnovers, including a pair of Ryan interceptions, of the three that he had in the game.
The first Ryan pick came in a tie game, which is bad when playing at home vs. a mediocre defense, but not awful. The second was disastrous, a Pick-Six for a veteran QB playing with a fourth quarter lead vs. a mediocre defense. You just can’t do that (remember “can’t”, it will return in a moment). The final heave gets discounted because of the game situation, except for the subtle notation that Ryan deserves at least some demerit, because his first two INTs helped to set up that desperation.
Here is what else matters – while the end-game failures are easy to see, consider the opening salvo. The Falcon defense came up with takeaways on the first two Indianapolis possessions, getting the ball at the Colts 34-yard line, and their own 45. Ryan and the offense could not muster anything, the first drive ending with a missed FG after failing to net a first down, and the second coming via his first interception.
Here is Ryan’s take, concerning the Pick-Six, which he fit right into the numbers of Indy LB D’Qwell Jackson - “It was just a play that I can’t make. In those situations, critical situations, you can’t turn the ball over. I’ve got to be better than that. That’s one of the things, that’s not an accuracy issue on that particular play. It was just a decision-making issue. You can’t go to that spot.” Ryan used the contraction “can’t” three times in that breakdown. Yet he “did”. The veteran Atlanta QB has had a good career and still sports a strong reputation, but his current Passer Rating of 89.6 ties his low since 2009. That is despite having Julio Jones around to make him look good. It is time to be more than just a little skeptical, with Ryan looking a half step slow in the pocket these days.
When “skepticism” and “QB” are connected, of course, it will often mean talking about Andy Dalton, and it is indeed time to do that, except with a bit of a twist…
Item: Andy Dalton made a decision that turned out wrong, but it might prove to be a good thing later
By traditional football standards it was an end-game botch for the Bengals on Sunday night. Facing a third-and-2 at the Arizona 25 with 1:14 remaining, and the Cardinals out of time-outs, standard football says to run the ball to try to get the first down, and if that fails kick a FG after winding the clock down, leaving Carson Palmer too little time to do much of anything except perhaps take a knee and move on to overtime. What happened instead? Dalton threw a pass to A. J. Green, who could not catch it in-bounds, the FG was made, but the Arizona offense had enough time to counter with a FG of their own to win the game.
But that is not the end of the story. As it turns out there were options on the play call that was sent it, and Dalton had the choice of sticking with a running play, or checking to a pass. He chose the latter. In terms of his confidence in believing in himself and his teammates, he may have made the right choice, which may show later in the season. It was the execution that was off.
Why check into a pass in that situation? Because the Cardinals were choosing to leave 5-11 Justin Bethel, who had replaced the injured Patrick Peterson at CB, in single coverage against 6-4 A. J. Green. That left an opportunity to make a play that could have given Cincinnati the lead, and instead of being timid, which had often been the case in previous seasons, Dalton went for it. It was the execution that failed. Dalton’s take - "You're trying to win the game. There are two ways of thinking of it. Yeah, you don't want to leave time on the clock but you also want to try and win and we had a chance. It was close. I left it a little short and that would have won the game for us. It's tough. We left too much time."
And OC Hue Jackson helped to diffuse the second-guessing by making it an extremely matter-of-fact decision – “We have our best player against - their best corner (Peterson) was on the sideline. He was done. So you've got your best player out on the field and the safety is standing in the middle of the field, so you've got to take that shot. … There were a couple of things that can happen on that call, but I knew as soon as they lined up the way they did, I knew where the ball was going. I mean, I watched it every day in practice. So I'm not surprised by that. I'm surprised maybe a little bit at the outcome. But again, that's football. The ball's going to bounce your way sometimes and sometimes it's not. It's just unfortunate.”
For all of the continued talk about Dalton’s performance in prime-time games, with fuel having been added to those fires from Monday’s loss to Houston, he threw for 315 yards and a pair of TDs, without an interception, leading three scoring drives in the fourth quarter. His confidence really is reaching a higher level. And there is also that matter that getting stopped by the Texans is not so bad these days…
Item: That Houston defensive turnaround
Sub-Item: Has Bill O’Brien using the proper gear on offense helped that turnarond
It was not all that long ago that Houston’s dismal loss at Miami, an outing in which the Texans defense turned in one of the worst First Half showings in NFL history, was a lead topic, but it now looks like a distant constellation through the telescope. There have only been two TDs allowed over 14 quarters since then, and at 5-5 the playoffs now become a motivational target. Explanations are easy to find, the first being that an under-achieving unit was too good to stay at that level. There is also the matter of health, with Brian Cushing starting to get back to the kind of player that he can be, and the win over New York also marked the return of Jadeveon Clowney as well. This group brings a lot of upside, and note that despite their early struggles they remain #1 in the NFL at defending third-down plays, allowing only a 26.4 percent rate. There is logic to that – when J. J. Watt and the gang are on the field with a chance to rush the QB, this is a dynamic group.
Let me suggest something else that may be helping the defense to turn things around – there is finally a degree of sanity to the offensive tempo. Back in early October the unexpected pace that Bill O’Brien had the team playing at took the lead here. It just did not make a lot sense for a group not all that talented, outside of DeAndre Hopkins, to be playing so fast. Since the Miami debacle it has been a different story. The Texans beat the Titans at 28.4 SPS, the Bengals at 28.1 and the Jets at 27.5. That three-game average is more than five full seconds per play slower than the pacing of the first seven, and it just happens to connect to the defense playing much better. The case can be made that the defense was not as bad in the early part of the season as the numbers indicated, but that the tempo of the offense was not always giving them the necessary breather between possessions.
Houston is healthy on defense now, and the offense is playing with a degree of sanity that had previously been missing. Most full-season measurements are going to show that defebse as being in the middle of the pack; you want to rate them higher than that.
Item: What next, for the Patriots
It is too early in the week to get a determination of the severity of the injuries to Danny Amendola or Aaron Dotson, who were both unable to finish Monday night’s win over Buffalo, but this is becoming a case in which the collective impact might be greater than the value of the individual players appear to be. If Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis, Amendola or Dotson are out individually, the needle does not move, but put them together as a package, and it is significant.
One of the things that makes the New England offense so special is developing role players for specific aspects of the playbook, with Tom Brady’s knowledge and skills enabling that one of the thickest compilations ever, and it means an ability to exploit just about any weakness an opponent has. That changes now, and in a short practice week before going on the road to face the NFLs best defense, that change may be significant.
Some of the cracks showed at New York last week, when the Giants were in position to put the game away but failed. There was more in evidence on Monday night, when only one sack of Brady went into the record books, but Buffalo defenders were able to make contact several times, forcing his lowest completion percentage of the season. Yes, there is still Rob Gonrkowski, but might the Patriots have to take the field at Denver without any other player that has caught 20 passes?
Of course sitting at 10-0 and having one of the best QBs in the history of the sport can make it tolerable. That is not the case in the town where Edgar Allan Poe was born, where an amazing count of players have had to say “Nevermore” to their 2015 seasons…
Item: What next, for the Ravens
Let’s credit the recent Baltimore showings to John Harbaugh and his staff continuing to work hard, despite all of the obstacles being thrown their way – if not for an officiating error vs. Jacksonville, and then Elvis Dumervil’s grabbing of the facemask of Blake Bortles, it would be a two-game win streak. Not pretty wins, but with this bunch any type of beauty will be unattainable the remainder of the season. The question now is whether the rubber band has been stretched so far that it might snap.
With Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett being added to the list, there are 17 Baltimore players that have been lost to season-ending injuries, and DE Brent Urban might be #18, although there is a chance he could return. You can start with the triangle at the skill spots, Flacco/Forsett/Steve Smith, to see how much damage has been done, but now Matt Schaub, Javorius Allen and that patched-together WR corps may have to operate behind an OL with only two remaining starters, Marshall Yanda and Rick Wagner. In Sunday’s win over the Rams, Ryan Jensen made his first-ever NFL start, and John Urschel moved over from guard to start at center for the first time in his pro career.
Harbaugh has a lot of work to do before Monday night’s game vs. Cleveland rolls around – no one other than Flacco has started at QB since Troy Smith in December of 2007, a span of 122 games. It means a week of trying to ramp up Matt Schaub, who had a mop-up appearance for Oakland in a 52-0 loss at St. Louis last November as his only meaningful action since 2013. In his first year with the Ravens Schaub has no particular working rhythm with any of the WRs, of course. It makes for a difficult team to power-rate, but I do respect the leadership from the sidelines, and there just might be a decent effort in a “backs to the wall” setting come Monday night, the fact that the Browns are the opponent making the task a bit easier. It is after that game that we may see a crash, when this motley crew is going to have to play on the road after a short practice week.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review Journal NFL box score page
I get “home-sick” for several of the places that I spent a lot of time in throughout Latin America, mostly for the people but also for the food. Guadalajara, Mexico was one of those places, and it was there that I was introduced to one of my favorite sandwiches, the Torta Ahogada, which translates to “drowned sandwich”. It is simply a classic when done right, and although it is not easy to find in Las Vegas there is a place that does it right, El Birotazo (4262 East Charleston). So when the craving strikes…
What is a proper Torta Ahogada? Start with birote salado bread, and accept no substitutes – it needs to have a bit of a crunch on the crust and also enough structure inside to not crumble or fall apart when dipped. Inside of that bread will be properly roasted pork, and the meat and bread are dipped into a fiery sauce based on arbol chiles, vinegar, garlic and oregano. The starch and protein allow for the sauce to be a little incendiary, something that some of you might not want to eat on its own, but when it all comes together it is fantastic, especially with some onions pickled in hot sauce, sliced radishes, and a squeeze of lime. They are best served on a plate that has a rim, so that the drippings of the sauce are not lost, and you will be given a spoon – you can get through the first half of the sandwich with your hands, rarely the second, and the spoon gives you the chance to get every drop of that precious liquid.
Those that own El Birotazo, cook the food, and serve the few tables (seating capacity is about 25), are all from Guadalajara, as seemingly are most of the customers, which forces the quality control to be high. Folks from the state of Jalisco take their food seriously, and will let you know when it is not good enough. You may well end up chatting with some of them on your visit while sharing a table, which is one of the joys of the experience. Because of the popularity, and the fact that several of the menu items are difficult to find elsewhere, you will often have to wait for a spot during the prime lunch cycle, but if an individual or a group have a table and there is an empty chair, it will be offered to you. Accept it, and you will have quickly made friends (this time someone leaning over my shoulder whispering "Matt Ryan parece viejo"). El Birotazo opens early (9 AM), so you can work your way around that crunch period, and it is well worth it.
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