Point Blank – November 9
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #10
The weekend that was on the NCAA gridirons, with results from all sorts of directions, both on and off the field, creating a smorgasbord of food for thought as we approach this week’s board, and those to follow -
Item: Gunfight time at the Big 12 Corral (cue some old Waylon for the ride)
Sub-Item: Oklahoma State’s defense was sensational (yes, you can play great and allow 658 yards)
The Big 12 November Rodeo, one of the most fascinating schedule cycles I have seen in a long time, is underway, with one of the riders I did not think was ready for this level just yet roping a victim on Saturday, Oklahoma State playing a brilliant all-around game in handling TCU. And I do mean brilliant all-around, despite some of the Sports Mediaverse silliness in the aftermath. I do not want to pick on anyone by name, because many times the talking heads on ESPN are forced into point/counterpoint segments in which someone has to say something they may not necessarily believe in, but there was a take of “how can you like a defense that just gave up 658 yards” espoused during a Sunday morning Sports Center. So let’s sort through that notion, adding some dignity and football insight to the process.
Those Cowboy defenders were actually heroic on Sunday, enough so for them to not only have entered the title picture but to actually have an intriguing path (they get both Baylor and Oklahoma in Stillwater), and if key shootouts in the Big 12 chase will be on the plains of Texas and Oklahoma, let’s cue in some old Waylon Jennings to set the tone -
I learned all the rules of a modern-day drifter,
Don’t you hold on to nuthin’ too long…
Yes, Willie Nelson wrote it, but you may not have heard Waylon’s version before, and it brings the proper feeling and sentiment.
Sadly in search of, and one step in back of,
Themselves, and their slow-moving dreams
Song-writing, and indeed just about any form of verbal communication, does not get much better than that. If you are planning to bet sports over the long haul, and do not get the meaning from those words yet, search for it, because it will be of value – you are going to need some of it along the way (like if you bet SMU vs. Temple, which I will get to in a bit).
OK, so how can you play great defense and allow 39 first downs and 658 yards? You can when your opponent is Trevone Boykin and the TCU offense, and that opponent gets to snap the ball 109 times. Yes, 109. If you hold the Horned Frogs to 1.5 yards per play below their average over that kind of sample is terrific, especially given how exhausting the workload was. The fantastic showing of the Mason Rudolph/James Washington tandem speaks for itself (they hooked up five times, for 184 yards and three TDs), but it was the defense that really carried the day, even if there was the benefit of not facing Josh Doctson in the second half.
There is an issue for this week, however – that defense has been on the field for 203 plays over the last two games, the most that I can recall from my years of charting. That will be a factor as the handicap line is generated for their game at Iowa State. Meanwhile there is another Big 12 defense that is also a tricky group to grade right now, at a time when it matters most…
Item: Is Baylor’s defensive front really any better?
Like Oklahoma State, Baylor has a clear path for an invitation to join the Playoff party on New Year’s Eve – just win the next four games. That is easier said than done, of course, with the brutal task of hosting Oklahoma, then playing at Oklahoma State and TCU, over the next three weeks, quite a barrel race ahead. One part of the team appears ready, but questions on the defensive side of the ball remain, in a season in which the hopes were that they would have been answered by now.
Jarrett Stidham was fine at QB in the win over Kansas State, his debut as a starter, completing 23-33 for 419 yards, with three TD passes and no turnovers. The offense is as good as any in the nation, regardless of whether it is Stidham or Russell at QB. But as the schedule now takes a turn here we go once again – has the defensive front genuinely improved, and even if it has is there enough there to hold up through this grueling stretch?
This is the season it was supposed to be different, with all four starters returning up front, three of them seniors. The 6-9/275 Shawn Oakman a force on the edge that has fascinated NFL scouts, and Andrew Billings and Beau Blackshear both tip the scales at 300 pounds inside, depending on what they had for breakfast that morning. Yet over the last three games they have allowed 712 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry if sacks are removed, and that was only against the likes of West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas State. This week it will be Oklahoma’s dynamic duo of Samajie Perine and Joe Mixon, who have combined for 1,325 yards and 15 rushing TDs.
Is this defense good enough to win this week? Is it good enough to withstand the challenges and last through the first weekend in December? They are slightly separate questions, but both matter for various reasons as the future books on the Playoffs get shuffled around a little. And some of that shuffling comes from what happened at Tuscaloosa on Saturday night…
Item: LSU/Bama Part I, the Tigers are not ready yet
Sub-Item: The Alabama defense actually faces a tougher matchup this week (why has Dak Prescott been so forgotten?)
Sub-Item: Why in the hell was Derrick Henry carrying the ball 10 times on the last possession?
It should not have come as a shock to faithful readers that LSU was literally not ready from prime time heading to Alabama; the youth of that Tiger depth chart was dealt with here last Wednesday, and the passing game still lacks the sophistication to beat that class of defense. They may well be the pre-season #1 for 2016, and a tough finishing stretch will aid in their development. But for now it is Alabama that has a clear path to the Playoffs, Ole Miss having taken a second SEC loss, and the way that the Crimson Tide dominated LSU will have excited many via the Eye Test. Be careful with that.
Nick Saban’s team had both a major edge in experience, and in matchups, vs. LSU. As noted here often this season, this is the best North/South defense in quite some time, and for as dynamic as Leonard Fournette is, there was precious little room for him to operate. But what has been the kryptonite for the Saban defense? Mobile QBs, and passing attacks that could go East/West. As such, while Alabama will be a bigger point spread favorite at Mississippi State this week than vs. LSU, it may actually be a tougher challenge. Which brings up another question – why is Dak Prescott not even being mentioned at all in the Heisman race these days?
All Prescott has done this season is throw for 2,351 yards at 66.7 percent completions, with 18 TD passes vs. one interception, while also running for 418 net yards and seven more TDs. Why that is not impressing many folks is beyond me, although perhaps it is because Prescott has been so consistent for so long he has become a bit boring. Don’t sleep on this matchup, especially since one of the key Crimson Tide weapons may also be a bit weary.
Yes, one can understand Saban and Lane Kiffin wanting to showcase Derrick Henry in a push for the Heisman, and the offense did finish Saturday in style, bruising the Tiger pride in keeping the ball for the final 9:18. But why on earth was Henry given 10 carries on that drive? He finished with 219 yards, something so rare vs. an LSU defense, but it took 38 carries to get there, and that pushes his count up to 151 attempts over the last five weeks. That is a big load for a college RB to be carrying, literally, especially with this kind of challenge coming up. Henry’s last three carries came with less than 3:00 remaining and a 14-point lead, which does not make any football sense. If you have to win at Mississippi State, at Auburn, and vs. Florida in the SEC title tilt merely to get to the Playoffs, forcing those added hits on your workhorse when it was not necessary borders on coaching malpractice, from an ordinarily first-rate staff.
Item: Style Points may matter for Notre Dame
OK, the path is clear for many of the teams at the top – just win and they are in, with style points of no consideration. That is not the case for Notre Dame, which is going to take strength of schedule hits vs. Wake Forest and Boston College the next two week, which could see the Fighting Irish win and still get leap-frogged by someone coming out of the Big 12. I bring that up because Brian Kelly may not have been happy with Saturday’s end-game, a 42-17 lead with 6:00 remaining shrinking to 42-30 on the final scoreboard, and when there is something as significant as a Playoff appearance on the line, a sequence like that can matter. Neither of the next two opponents bring back-door ability, two of the nation’s truly worst offenses on tap, so as part of your game handicap, and perhaps even when looking at In-Running or a Second Half option, note that Saturday’s closing stretch may be something that weighs on Kelly’s mind going forward. He may go out of his way to make sure that nothing like that happens again.
Item: As for Playoff Conspiracy Theories (I know, you don’t want to hear about Michigan State/Nebraska again, but…)
By the way, if you dislike the way the Playoff format is set up, you can actually have a perverse root coming up. While there have been the usual social media blitherings about conferences trying to protect their unbeaten teams, in order to grab the added million$ that a spot in the Final Four brings, consider this – should Michigan State beat Ohio State, and go on to win the Big 10 championship yet not make the Playoffs, that conference will have lost those million$ because of poor work by their own officials. But for all of the conspiracy folks out there, it was bad officiating against the unbeaten team, no grassy knoll to be found in Lincoln. The Spartans winning the Big 10, but not being invited to the New Year's Eve party because of the Saturday ending, would be a delicious irony.
Of course Michigan State can still get back in the hunt by winning out, if there is a lot of help from elsewhere, and if the Spartans are close to the mix one of the intriguing notions is that their early-season win over Oregon may mean more than the raw numbers can show. And here is why -
Item: On understanding Oregon/Vernon Adams settles in
Sub-Item: Adjusting opponents based on when they played Oregon
Michigan State’s 31-28 home win over Oregon back in September does not look like anything special based on the full-season numbers; if anything it would represent under-achievement. But properly evaluating the Ducks requires greatly reducing the weight of the nearly four full games in which Adams did not play (he made a brief appearance while hurt vs. Utah), and being quick to recognize now how much different the offense is when he is settled in. For those that did not stay up to watch the late show on Saturday night, that 44-28 Oregon win over California may have actually undersold the offense a bit – it was 36 first downs and 777 yards, and it is now a 3-0 SU and ATS run since Adams returned to the lineup, games in which they have beaten the market expectations by 29.5 points.
It is a common exercise for a team to be adjusted when a key player returns. What is not so common, and yet is a key step to doing better power ratings, is to sort through the games that player missed from the standpoint of the opposition. When Oregon’s power rating is raised, that would ordinarily be a boost for all teams that have already played the Ducks, raising their SOS. But for those that played Oregon when Adams was sidelined it shouldn’t – Utah and Washington State got wins in Eugene against a lesser team. Being able to do that kind of separation is a valuable handicapping tool.
Item: Gus Malzahn went back to Jeremy Johnson
You know how dramatic these stories can be. Take a player with a seemingly high ceiling, like perhaps a QB considered in the pre-season Heisman mix. Have that player get off to a bad start, and get benched. Then have him return to the starting lineup, leading the team to a key win, and fireworks go off, right? In the case of Auburn and Jeremy Johnson, do not be in a hurry.
Yes, the Tigers had a comfortable 26-10 win at Texas A&M, but did they necessarily solve anything? This one was mostly about game matchups on a sloppy rainy night, with the offense able to power up inside and run for 311 yards on 52 carries vs. an Aggie defense that likes to attack, but is often allergic to holding their ground in the trenches. There are some particulars that matter. First, this was mostly block’em-up running, and nothing fancy from the playbook; there was not a single carry from the QB position. Second was that the passing game was clean, but lacked sizzle, Johnson going 13-17, but only for 132 yards. Half of that came on tosses of 34 to Kerryone Johnson and 32 to Tony Stevens, which meant that the other 11 completions netted only 66 yards. Third, and most important, is that the season-long issues in the red zone were not solved. Auburn crossed the Texas A&M 20-yard line six times, but managed only two TDs, settling for four Daniel Carlson field goals.
Johnson was an effective game manager, running a safe offense that had 69 snaps without a turnover. There are defensive challenges ahead vs. Georgia and Alabama that will require more. But at least this week Johnson may not be forced to do too much too early, because his own defense can keep the team in the game vs. a struggling Georgia offense…
Item: Mark Richt went back to Greyson Lambert (it is OK to yawn)
If this is indeed going to be the last go-round for Richt at Georgia, one of the stranger episodes of his 15 seasons may have been starting the over-matched Faton Bauta at QB vs. Florida. Bauta had a terrible game, the Bulldogs were crushed 27-3, and that may have been a one-off start for his Georgia career. It just happened to come against the ‘Dawgs biggest rival, and the best defense they will face this season.
Richt went back to Lambert on Saturday, and like Malzahn’s switch to Jeremy Johnson, it produced a win and an ATS success. But also like the Auburn result, the Georgia win did not have much at all to do with production from the QB position. If anything it was a clunker from Lambert, who was 6-13 for only 64 yards vs. perhaps the SEC’s weakest defense. But the offense benefitted from some short fields, twice scoring TDs on drives that started in Kentucky territory. There was no magic here, nothing to indicate the offense is any better now than it was when Lambert was benched a couple of weeks ago, and no apparent upside for the closing stretch of both the season, and possibly Richt’s tenure at Athens.
Item: What about Missouri?
What the Tigers did on the field vs. Mississippi State on Thursday was neither good, nor interesting. What they have done since is. I am going to let the links tell the tale here to save space, and also provide you with a place to go during the week for follow-up, but the basic gist is this - a group of players released a statement on social media Saturday night that they would not “participate in any football related activities” until University President Tim Wolfe resigns or is removed. You can read some background from Dave Matter of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. And for more details as Sunday unfolded, try this.
I was surprised that most shops posted an opener last night given the circumstances, mostly around Brigham Young -4, but this morning those prices are being taken down. This is a major story not just regarding this week, but how the rest of what has been a disappointing season plays out for Missouri, and I will post pertinent updates here throughout the week.
(UPDATING: Tim Wolfe resigned on Monday morning. The assumption is business as usual for the Missouri football team, but I will be following closely and updating throughout the week).
Item: Illinois out-rushed Purdue by 293 yards; or
Item: Purdue got out-rushed vs. Illinois by 293 yards
In four previous Big 10 games, Illinois had 271 rushing yards, while allowing 720. Then came Saturday’s 48-14 destruction of Purdue in West Lafayette. It was a shocking mismatch at the line of scrimmage, and ordinarily would be one of those signs I would be looking for from a team that is fading under an embattled coach. But that result came just a few days after Darrell Hazell was told by Purdue administration that he would be returning as HC next season, instead of the uncertainty that he might be on his way out.
Hazell is just 6-27 since taking over the Boilermakers, including 2-19 in Big 10 play. So why is he being given another season? Because it would cost the university a little over $6 million to buy the remaining three years of his contract out, which also does not count what they would have to pay his replacement. It was not a smart decision to grant Hazell the original deal he has given, but it was at least half-smart to announce he was coming back after that home win over Nebraska, a time at which they could alleviate the public pressure a bit. Little did they know that just a few days later the Boilermakers might have turned out the worst effort in a conference game of Hazell’s tenure. They brought nothing to Saturday’s fight.
But that was from the Purdue side of things; is there something positive to be said about Illinois? After playing their worst game of the season in a 39-0 drubbing at Penn State, was it an indication that the players still believe in interim HC Bill Cubit, and wanted to win for him? It may well have been, but now comes another plot twist in the saga of that program – it was announced first thing Monday morning than AD Mike Thomas has been fired. How does this impact the team, Cubit, and a possible coaching search ahead? It leaves a lot of questions, and it means reading newspapers out of the Midwest will go along with the morning coffee this week.
Item: Connecticut 7 Tulane 3 happened
Yes, in the wide-open football of 2015, it is possible for a game to be played in which the two offenses combined scored three points. That was the case in Connecticut’s 7-3 win at Tulane, the only TD of the game coming on a Pick Six. The two teams combined for 18 first downs and 347 yards, with a few individual teams having more than that in a single half on last week’s board, and each side punted 11 times. I cannot recall the last time a game was played in which each team had more punts than first downs. But it was not quite as bad as all that – the game was played in a driving rain, which took a pair of bad offenses and made them look even worse. As such, what you do not want to do is overly credit the defenses with having been better than they were.
Item: Bowling Green has scored 203 points since last turning the ball over
The Falcon run extends a little more than 14 quarters, to late in the first half vs. Massachusetts on October 10. That level of execution is a big factor as they now face their two biggest challenges of the MAC regular-season, going to Western Michigan this week, and then hosting Toledo in that cross-town showdown next Tuesday.
Item: For the Texas Tech defensive files
Fatigue for defenses around the nation is a major late-season factor, and one that should take a priority in your searches on this week’s board. One of the teams that has been focused on here in recent weeks is Texas Tech, a depth-shy defense being forced to play 11 games in as many weeks, including brutal back-to-back sequences of TCU/Baylor and Oklahoma/Oklahoma State. It was noted in the thread following last Monday’s column that prior to facing West Virginia on Saturday, they had allowed TDs on all five fourth quarter possessions the two previous games, except for a late kneel-down by Oklahoma State. A quick glance of the Saturday box score would show that the Red Raiders only allowed even points in the final stanza at Morgantown, but you need to take a closer look for a proper evaluation.
The Mountaineers got the ball twice in that fourth quarter, the first drive going 59 yards in eight plays for a TD, and the second ending with three consecutive kneel-downs to finish the game. The key is to note where those kneel-downs began – it was first-and-goal at the Tech one-yard line. Credit Dana Holgorsen for having the class to end the game that way, but do not credit the defense for having made a stop (as part of the silliness of statistics, it will go down as being a success for the Red Raiders when you look at the red zone tables, and of course a failure for the WVU offense as well).
Item: SMU had the ball down 45-40 with 2:46 remaining (Temple 60-40 final)
In a season filled with an uncommon assortment of odd endings and bad beats, if you were not watching SMU/Temple on Friday (and unless you had action on the game it was not going to be much of a draw), you missed a classic. And if you bet on the Mustangs at +13.5 or so you lost for one of the oddest of reasons – because the team actually played a little bit too well.
The SMU offense took possession on their own 12-yard line down 45-40 with 5:06 remaining, with a chance to drive the field and win the game. The Mustangs managed a first down, but stalled to the tune of fourth-and-four at the 32 with 2:46 remaining. Since punting would have left a very tight squeeze on the clock, Chad Morris decided to go for the first down, a proper coaching move at the time. Had his team been trailing by more than eight points, he likely would have punted, and the ATS outcome nearly cinched. Instead Matt Davis threw an incomplete pass to turn the ball over on downs, but even then the point spread did not seem to be at risk, when Temple was thrown into a third-and-14 with 1:56 to play. Then it turned. QB P. J. Walker ran 36 yards for a TD on that third-down, and the fifth play into the ensuing drive the Owl defense scored on a Pick Six. An evening on which SMU played well enough to possibly win ended up as a 20-point defeat on the scoreboard, a score that does not properly grade the way that the game was played.
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