Point Blank – October 9-12
Football Weekend – Is the Edsall Extinct?…On The Packers and Pace…The Rivers will be flowing on Monday…Terry Bowden has him some dadgum Jimmy’s and Joe’s…Buying low, on a pair of NFL offenses…
Unusual settings can sometimes be the land of handicapping opportunity, and it appears that we have a most unusual one on the way as Maryland heads to Columbus to face Ohio State on Saturday – is it indeed a foregone conclusion that Terrapin HC Randy Edsall will be fired afterwards?
The timing is actually somewhat favorable for the University, with a bye week on deck to help regroup, and OC Mike Locksley like to take over for the remainder of the campaign (although his stint at New Mexico was not a pleasant chapter for either him or that program). And from a PR standpoint, if you want to dump a coach, why not after what is likely to be a resounding blowout? Having been out-scored 73-6 by West Virginia and Michigan the past two weeks, the only TD coming when down 38-0 in the fourth quarter at WVU, it would close out a three-game cycle that will likely be the worst in the history of the program.
This being modern college football, of course, I would be remiss to not note that this is just four months after Edsall was given a contract extension that is going to be expensive to buy out ($2.6 million guaranteed if he does not coach a single game in 2016 or 2017). And that there is also a rather awkward issue rearing an uncomfortable head. One reason for the extension was Edsall getting a commitment from four-star local QB recruit Dwayne Haskins. But Haskins commented on his Twitter account that he remains “Committed to the state. They need us.” Did he perhaps echo similar sentiments to the administration? This has been an on-going public story for both Haskins and fellow recruit Tino Ellis, and their holding steadfast makes it much easier to dismiss Edsall, knowing that it would not cost them two prime future talents.
Why burn so much money? It may turn out to actually be a positive cost-benefit analysis – attendance is down 13 percent, and there are reports that funding is becoming difficult for a $155 million renovation of Cole Field House, which would finally provide the program with an indoor football practice facility, something all other Big 10 teams have. The next hire might change that. But those are issues for the administration; here the key is how it impacts Saturday’s game, and I do not see anything good coming from the Maryland side, not one of these “Win one for the Gipper” settings. As a contributing factor to all of this is that there may already be a disconnect between Edsall and his team, which led to a players-only meeting prior to their loss to Michigan last week. The truth is that they may be so dysfunctional right now that they could not cobble much of a game plan together anyway.
The ineptness of Maryland was already built into the price, Ohio State opening at -31.5 despite the Buckeyes being on an 0-4 ATS run in which they have come up 54 points short of the projections, and is now up to -33. While another coach might have a little sympathy for a member of the fraternity, and back off with a big lead, that would not appear to be part of Urban Meyer’s make-up. Where there could be value is in something that unfortunately does not bring much market opportunity – the Maryland Team Total Under. Given the struggles of the Ohio State offense the Buckeyes are not guaranteed to ignite, but that defense is capable of pitching a shutout. And while no coach wants to be accused of running up a score against a conference opponent in the latter stages, preventing the other side from scoring does not bring nearly the same scrutiny.
On the Packers, and Pace
You can listen to this week’s NFL Podcast with Steve Fezzik, Stephen Nover and R. J. Bell here - /pregame-forums/f/9/t/1318412.aspx, and one of the topics lends itself a little better to a graph, the changing pace of the Green Bay Packers. This is something that was a matter of discussion here when Jordy Nelson went down – while Aaron Rodgers can still complete passes through the narrowest of windows to any receiver that is even remotely open open, there were notions that the Packers might use more two-RB alignments, and play a more deliberate style.
So far that has been the case, in looking at Seconds Per Snap (SPS):
Green Bay SPS 2014 2015
Full Game 28.3 30.4
First Half 26.9 28.5
Note that when you want to do a proper study of pace, isolating First Half is important. Second Half counts can get skewed from different directions – a team with a big lead can go out of their way to slow things down, while naturally a trailing team will speed it up. The Packers are consistent here, slowing it down through all stages the game, and note their 30.4 overall rates them #29 across the NFL, only the Titans, Rams and Cowboys being more deliberate. That fact that the matchup vs. St. Louis brings two lower-tier teams does warrant attention heading towards Sunday.
Friday Fantasy QB
Time for the usual preface – the focus here is to look down the board to find the right fit at the right price, creating the positioning that can leave more money in your pocket to buy higher at the other positions. This week it takes us to Philip Rivers (SD) sitting at #10 on both the DraftKings and the FanDuel boards.
Rivers had one of the best individual games of any QB all season vs. the Browns last week, throwing for 358 yards and three TDs despite having a patchwork OL in front of him, but it shows how both his experience, and the savvy of Mike McCoy, can cook up a plan. Now not only does the OL get healthier with Chris Watt back in the fold, but this also marks the return of Antonio Gates, adding another chess piece to exploit a vulnerable Steeler secondary, with opposing QBs working to a 100.4 passer rating so far.
In the Sights…
An off-the-radar notion has been building this season, something that was discussed in some early threads, and now it is time to put it into play - #315 Akron brings one of the most under-rated defenses in the nation, and the gap vs. Eastern Michigan’s own stop unit is likely the biggest we will see all season for a conference game lined in single digits, especially in a setting in which the home field advantage is so thin.
The Zips have slowly been progressing under Terry Bowden and a veteran coaching staff, and where a fascination began this fall was an already decent defense, including Lombardi candidate Cody Grice at NT (he has started every game in his career, Saturday being #42), was going to get bolstered up front by the kind of talents not usually found in the MAC, DE’s De’Von Pittman and Jamal Marcus coming over from Ohio State, DT Rodney Coe transferring in from Iowa State, and LB Darryl Monroe working his way east from from Washington State. They have all found their way to the top of the depth chart, and the end result has been a stifling rush defense, one that more than held its own at Oklahoma (allowing 100 rushing yards at 3.0) and at home vs. Pittsburgh, and in the first MAC game last week held Ohio to just 227 yards of total offense. They have earned their spot in the national rankings, and Bowden laid it out well earlier this week - “It’s not the X’s and O’s, it’s the Jimmy’s and Joe’s, and we’ve got better Jimmy’s and Joe’s right now than we’ve had since we’ve been here.” After some decent early challenges, it is when they step down in class that they can truly shine.
Contrast that defense with one that was focused on in the Monday column an under-sized Eastern Michigan front that has faced more rushing attempts by far than any other team (271, only one other is within 30), and against those thrusts they have been simply futile, allowing 378.4 rushing yards per game at 7.0 per carry. That is on pace to shatter all sorts of records, and as both physical and mental fatigue become a part of the picture, improvements are not likely. Akron brings a veteran OL that has senior starters across the board, having combined for 85 career starts, and with senior RBs Connor Hundley and Donnell Alexander (another transfer, from Colorado State) operating behind them, they can have their way vs. this defense to control the flow of the game.
The Eagles simply do not draw in Ypsilanti, something that the markets never seem to fully appreciate, as noted by an 8-20 conference ATS record here the last eight seasons. With Akron ready to vent some frustrations, off of a league-opening 14-12 loss to Ohio in which four red zone trips ended with FGs instead of TDs, it is not asking much for this margin to get built into double figures.
In the Sights, NFL…
I sense a promising buy-low opportunity with a pair of offenses that are both going to get significantly improve over the remainder of the season, and in what will be a much looser flow than the markets are calling for, it is #452 Jacksonville/Tampa Bay Over.
Yes, Jameis Winston has had turnover problems - that is what will happen for a QB that is starting after only his sophomore season of college. But he will only get better with experience, and part of what Winston brings to this league is already visible – the ability to make plays down the field, as evidenced by being #6 in yard per completion. To help create a better flow the Bucs are working with a lot more no-huddle sets, a tempo Winston is much more comfortable with, and for our purposes here another turnover or two might not be bad news anyway, if it helps to set up Jaguar points.
Meanwhile Blake Bortles may not have the upside of Winston, but the cast surrounding him brings a lot of promise. T. J. Yeldon adds a presence in the ground game that was lacking, and the Jaguars have plenty of depth at WR, but turning production into points has been an issue, with only four TDs on 11 trips to the red zone. That will naturally get better with time as the young pieces develop their indentities, especially with Julius Thomas takes the field, but even without Thomas this price point is a fit (UPDATING: Thomas has been upgraded and is expected to play, which does add another key dimension to the handicap).
Making matters easier for the offenses this week is that the defenses are nothing special - between them they have already allowed 14 TD passes, while only coming up with three interceptions. Because of this, it is not difficult to call on the losing team in this game to reach 20 points.
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