Point Blank – October 5
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #5
The weekend that was across the NCAA gridirons, and some key factors you can incorporate into your own handicapping processes for the games ahead. With a little Willie Nelson in the background...
Item: Is Michigan State even a Top 10 team (much less #4…)
The Spartans have not had to leave the state of Michigan yet, with four home games and a trip to Western Michigan. They have been favored by 93.5 points, but have come up short of those expectations by 40.5, having out-gained the opposition by only 11 yards. Think about that for a moment, in terms of Reputation vs. Reality foundations.
The Spartans are #4 in the AP poll this week, despite those uninspiring performances. Two weeks ago at home they were only leading out-manned Central Michigan 17-10 with 9:00 remaining. This past Saturday out-manned Purdue had the ball in State territory on the final drive before falling 24-21.
Here is perhaps the most intriguing aspect of all – State has fallen to 0-5 ATS, and that collective -40.5, despite winning the turnover battle in every game, and a +8 overall. If a team is +8 over five games, and comes up that short vs. the expectations, it means there is a serious market miss-read going on. In truth, this team has accomplished little, especially with the Oregon win not meaning nearly what it seemed to at the time. Yes, injuries are a factor, with both starting OT’s, Jack Conklin and Kodi Kieler, missing on Saturday. But if that rather unlikely rally does not occur vs. Baylor in the Cotton Bowl back in January, it could have easily been double-figure losses in all three step-up games last season. And this year’s team does not appear to be as strong as their predecessors.
Ordinarily I begin looking at 0-5 ATS teams to begin to reverse course, markets and the bounces of the ball being what they are. In this instance, the Spartans have been so miss-priced that I cannot begin to look for the shifting sands in their value hourglass just yet.
Item: The last thing Chad Morris needed, the first thing this morning, was to have to get ready for a Thursday night game
Earlier this season there was a take on how Chad Morris was making positive early steps at SMU, having his Mustangs seemingly at least a season ahead of schedule, with an aggressive and attacking style that the players were buying into. They extended Baylor and TC both well into the second half, before their lack of depth eventually took a toll. Those end-games tolls are turning out to be continuous ones, however, making this week’s trip to Houston a major challenge for Morris. It is also one that he likely wishes was not on his plate, so for your musical interlude through today’s long piece, let’s let Willy interpret for us how it feels to wake up and face the next day, after a lot of things have gone wrong.
It was one thing for the Mustangs to get worn down by Baylor and TCU, which can happen to just about any team. But for James Madison and East Carolina to roll for 97 points and 1,284 yards, is a sign of how bare the defensive pantry is. There could have been a feel-good result against the Dukes anyway, when Matt Davis ran 19 yards for a TD to make it 45-41 with 2:15 remaining, but the defense could not prevent JMU from driving 80 yards in seven plays for the game-clinching counter. Against East Carolina it was not as dramatic, but just as telling – after leading 23-7 midway through the second quarter, SMU fell victim to a 42-0 close-out.
Defensive fatigue is going to be an issue discussed here all season, and in the post-column thread last Monday Texas was brought up as a prime example, with the Longhorns going into the game at TCU having faced more defensive snaps than any team in the nation. It showed. For Morris and Van Malone the challenge is getting the team both physically refreshed, and back to some level of confidence by Thursday night, after fending off 165 plays the last two weeks, including 106 on the ground. That latter count is especially important, and it is not only SMU having to respond after being treated like blocking sleds…
Item: Eastern Michigan, and more defensive fatigue
One aspect of defensive fatigue that requires further study is the impact of facing running plays instead of chasing down WRs. While there is much talk across about what those high-octane spread offenses from the likes of Baylor and TCU can do to wear a team down during a game, in terms of the aftermath is it instead tougher to recover after facing a strong running attack? Defending a wide open passing game taxes the cardio, but might actually allow for an easier recovery of the muscles for the next week, than having to shed blocks and make tackles. Which leads us to Eastern Michigan.
There was a brief notation here last Monday about the nation’s worst rush defense having to go up against Leonard Fournette, and while Charlie Creighton’s team easily covered the spread in Baton Rouge, they were gashed to the tune of 400 rushing yards, including 26-233 and three TDs by Fournette. Through five games the Eagles have had to fend off 271 rush attempts, most in the nation by far, with Hawaii the only other team within 30 of that count. It will be important to track because that defensive front also has the difficult opening salvo of 11 straight game weeks before finally catching a bye in mid-November. Those bumps and bruises add up.
Of course, EMU has done one thing to alleviate some of that fatigue – by giving up 22 rushing TDs, tackles did not have to be made. That count includes scoring bursts of 75, 65, 63, 56, 54, 45 and 41 yards.
Item: But LSU could not complete passes vs. that defense
So despite not covering, which is something Les Miles could care less about with the difficult schedule ahead, it was mostly good for LSU, right? Win the game without much fuss, save energy, and have Fournette carry just enough times to keep his Heisman run on track. But there is a problem, and it may rear its head as the schedule gets tougher.
The Tigers did not step upo to a higher level last year because when they had to throw they were ineffective. That should have made recent games vs. Syracuse and Eastern Michigan prime settings to work on that part of the arsenal, because there are trips to Alabama and Mississippi later, and they will not win on those fields without being able to complete passes down the field. On Saturday it was simply ugly. The game stayed close enough on the scoreboard (it was only 30-22 in the fourth quarter) for Brandon Harris to go the distance at QB, but all Harris could manage was a 4-15 through the air. If you can’t make plays when at home vs. an out-classed opponent, it puts clouds over what will be a challenging horizon ahead.
Item: San Diego State has not been able to complete passes vs. any defense
In theory, it can sound good for a team from the Mountain West to have an SEC transfer starting at QB. The reality is that Maxwell Smith has not brought much life to the San Diego State air game after heading west from Kentucky, with the Aztecs not having completed at least 50 percent of their passes in any game. That is not easy in 2015, especially when it includes facing the likes of San Diego, South Alabama and Fresno State at home. For the season Smith is only 46-107, and the past two weeks it has not just been the failure of the ball getting to Aztec receivers when it was thrown, but how often planned pass plays ended without the ball leaving Smith’s hands, eight sacks in the mix.
This can become magnified in the weeks ahead because of the high ankle sprain to RB D. J. Pumphrey, which could have him out for a couple of games. State does have some depth at the position, led by senior Chase Price, but those backups will not find the going easy if opposing defenses do not have to respect the Aztec air game.
Item: Living the Life of Riley, in Lincoln
It was not difficult to find rants across the Social and Sports Mediaverses regarding Nebraska HC Mike Riley, and OC Danny Langsdorf, over what appeared to be an unfathomably bad play call that led to the Cornhuskers losing at Illinois on Saturday. The overwhelming majority of the ranters got it wrong, which happens so often when the details are not sorted through first (that takes time and effort, of course). But ultimately that may not matter for Riley, who now faces a fan base that tends to be unforgiving.
Here is the scenario. Nebraska led Illinois 13-7 with a little over a minute remaining, and had a 3rd-and-seven at the Illini 28-yard line. Illinois was out of time outs. The next play call would be an absolute automatic, run the ball to get as much time of possible off the clock, then call time out with a second left on the ensuing play clock, before deciding what to do on fourth down. So what happened? Tommy Armstrong rolled out and threw a pass, which was incomplete. The clock only got to 0:55, instead of perhaps as low as 0:15. On fourth down, the wind blowing too hard to try a long FG, Armstrong threw another incomplete pass, and Illinois got the ball back with 0:51 remaining, instead of what should have been around 0:10. That was just enough time for Wes Lunt to complete three passes, and get into the end zone to win.
The third down pass would be among the worst play calls you would ever see, and had that been the case, Riley and Langsdorf would have deserved every bit of the abuse. Except that they did not call a pass. From Riley – “The whole intention of it was a quarterback run.” From Langsdorf – “We had quarterback sweep. It’s a designed run.” Instead, pressured by a defender off the edge, the result of the Cornhuskers being in the wrong formation (TE Cethan Carter was lined up on the opposite side), Armstrong seemingly had a brain freeze, and threw the ball.
As tough of a defeat as that can be, it is magnified for a team that lost to Brigham Young on a last-play Hail Mary, and to Miami F. in overtime. And for a new coach trying to win over a difficult fan base, it can create an awkward pressure going forward. Might the spotlight on this week’s home game vs. Wisconsin perhaps get even hotter than a fragile team may be ready for?
Item: And then there was Kirk Ferentz
Riley will take more blame than he should for the Nebraska end-game failure, although a big part of coaching is to have the QBs mindset in the right place so that such a mistake does not get made. But with virtually every major conference game televised now it brings coaching decisions under the microscope even more, and it does bring some uneasiness when laying 11/10. It would be nice to believe that there are some veterans out there that can be trusted, but the list may be a short one.
Ferentz has been the HC at Iowa since 1999, coaching 205 Hawkeye games. One would think that his certificate of game management would be framed on the wall, but on Saturday it did not show. Iowa was leading Wisconsin 7-3 with 1:40 remaining in the half when the Hawkeyes faced a third-and-five at the Badger 10-yard line, a crucial moment in what was going to be a low-scoring slugfest. But third-and-five became third-and-10 because of a delay of game penalty. Those things happen, of course, when a team is out of time outs. But Iowa wasn’t; Ferentz still had all three in his pocket. To not have the awareness to get a time out called as the play clock ran down is a huge mark against a coaching staff. The Hawkeyes failed on the longer third-down attempt and had to settle for a FG, managing to hang on to win the game anyway. The coaching gaff needs to be recorded, however, and filed away for future reference.
Item: West Virginia’s pass protection really is a problem
This was proposed as a potential issue last Monday before the 3-0 Mountaineers went to Oklahoma, the stain on the resume being the seven sacks allowed despite having full game control vs. weak opponents (they led 74-0 at halftime of those games). The answer was loud and clear in Norman, Skyler Howard getting sacked seven times, for 56 yards in losses, and one of them resulting in a fumble that Jordan Evans of the Sooners returned for a TD.
Sacks tend to not be a major part of the college handicapping processes for many because they do not show up in all of the box scores, but they are worth seeking out. In particular make this part of your processes for Oklahoma State/WVU this week – the Cowboys lead the nation in sacks with 22, and in their first two Big 12 games came up with 12 vs. Texas and Kansas State, while allowing only 42 passes to be thrown.
Item: It is no Lock that Maty Mauk gets his job back
Last Wednesday the Missouri QB situation was sorted through, noting that the suspension of veteran Maty Mauk, a veteran of 22 career starts that would be replaced by a true freshman, might not actually be a downgrade at all. It helped that the yearling, Drew Lock, is a talented recruit that may be the cornerstone of the Tiger offense for the next four years. Now the question becomes whether Lock has won the job outright, and it plays to some intriguing speculation from Mizzou insiders last week that part of Mauk being suspended was to make it easier for Gary Pinkel to transition that QB position. As such, Pinkel’s post-game quotes left a lot of room open for reading between the lines -
“He (Lock) saw this as an opportunity to help our football team, and I think he was real, real excited about it. He just did same old, same old. He managed the game pretty good. He just did what we asked him to do.”
Was that a back-handed way of taking a shot at Mauk, whose behavior off the field, and decision making on it, had worn Pinkel’s patience? So far there has not been an announcement concerning Mauk’s re-instatement, but do not be surprised if the job belongs to Lock. But then make sure your temper the enthusiasm for that 21-28 showing vs. South Carolina – while the offense was efficient abd did not turn the ball over in 70 snaps, those throws only piled up 136 yards, and only four completions went for more than 10. When a tenacious Florida defense comes to Columbia this week, Lock faces a much different level of challenge.
Item: Florida State was out-rushed 127-33 over the last 53:30 at Wake Forest
It would be easy to quickly bypass Florida State’s uninspiring 24-16 win at Wake Forest as the result of playing through the Saturday storm front that impacted many games. If you do, you might miss something that will be a major storyline going forward, as the Seminole schedule ramps up – one of the youngest and most inexperienced OLs in the country is not ready yet.
On Saturday State started two freshmen, two sophomores and a junior up front. The back-up at four of the positions was another freshmen, the other being junior Chad Maverty. You can see evidence of that in the Seminoles getting out-rushed in the game, but if you look more closely it was particularly alarming. Dalvin Cook broke a 94-yard run early in the first quarter, and the rest of the way not only did the OL not provide any running room, but QB Everett Golson was also sacked three times. And this was against Wake Forest…
Item: Navy has gone 258 snaps without a turnover
One team that had no difficulty with Saturday’s wet conditions was Navy, and while there can be some credit given to Ken Nuimatalolo for having the Midshipmen practice outside in the rain during the week to better prepare, instead there should be another appreciation of Keenan Reynolds, who has already been in this spot on the Monday page, and the precision at which he is running this offense.
Chris Smith fumbled vs. Colgate on the opening possession of the Navy season. Since then it has been 258 offensive plays without another turnover. Sometimes there is a tendency to want to downgrade teams with a major plus in the turnover column, believing that not only were their scoreboards fortunate, but that the ratio may regress over the course of the season. Expect Navy to violate that, with Reynolds running such a clean attack that the Midshipmen simply are not going to give the ball away often.
Item: The Marshall Plan isn’t really working
There is a phrase you will hear sometimes from coaches to the tune of “Cut off the head and the body will die”, translating to the notion that if you take away a team’s strength, you can render the remaining components much weaker. As such, measuring a team’s strength, and gauging how much of a load it can carry in a given matchup, is an essential handicapping fundamental. That is making Marshall an emerging case study. While replacing QB Rakeem Cato was going to be a substantial undertaking, the expectation was that the ground game would be the best of Doc Holliday’s tenure, and the Thundering herd would win games by controlling the battles in the trenches. Yet in four lined games they have been out-rushed each time, despite being favored in all, and up against the unimposing likes of Purdue, Ohio, Kent State and Old Dominion. Marshall failed to net more than 63 yards overland in any of those games, but came away 2-2 SU and ATS to not set off any alarms. That could leave some vulnerabilities in the marketplace in the weeks ahead.
Item: Scooby Scooby Do, Where are You (about that Arizona defense)
Scooby Wright is unquestionably the head of the Arizona defense, and watching the Wildcats struggle to compete on that side of the ball the last two weeks speaks volumes about his value, a topic first discussed on this page back in September. Wright recovered quickly from his injury in the season opener to be on the field against UCLA last week, but then suffered a sprained right foot that took him out of play again. In a pair of dismal defeats vs. the Bruins and Stanford the defense was riddled for 111 points and 1,067 yards, and did not come up with a single takeaway in 144 snaps by the opposition.
It appears that the loss of Wright is one both of his physical presence, and his leadership in the huddle. Do not underrate the value of the latter, which might make him the single most important defensive player in the nation from a point spread perspective.
Item: But the Cal defense is getting interesting (for the right reasons)
For all of the talk about Jared Goff, who deserves those praises as he continues to move up the NFL mock draft boards, there is something legitimate going on with the California defense. They talked a good game about improvements coming into the season, which was actually easy after how terrible they were in 2014, but it does appear that in Art Kaufman’s second year of running that side of the ball major strides have been made.
Kaufman coaches an attacking style, and so much of what went wrong in 2014 came down to players being out of position. There is a process of evolving that is clearly visible, and the aggressiveness has paid off to the tune of 13 takeaways through four lined games (you could make it sound even better by including the five turnovers forced vs. Grambling, but I keep games like that off to the side).
How about this for something tangible – in 2014 Washington and Washington State combined for 90 points and 1,194 yards vs. Cal. This season the Huskies and Cougars were reduced to 52 and 662. The improvement has not been quite that major, with the Washington offense a work in progress, but it does show that not only are the numbers getting better, but the kind of results they are getting will be significant for the players as well. Confidence is essential when it comes to playing defense, and the Golden Bears are growing on that front.
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