olegunnar said:
Very basic Maths dictates that if you beat the line consistently you will profit in the long run. Dont beat the line, and you'll lose. People put way too much stock into short term results, which are subject to variance. Just beat the line and results will take care of themselves long term
This is trivial to disprove mathematically as stated. I provide a simple counterexample below.
First, the phrase "beat the line" is ridiculously vague and meaningless mathematically, also "consistently" isn't defined.
But assume I hit 50% of my bets ATS (basic coin-flipper), the line I am beating is -110 and I always get a better line, -109, on every game bet.
On the "regular" line of -110 with 100,000 bets at 1.1 unit per bet (assuming no pushes), I lose 50,000 bets and win 50,000 for a net loss of -5000u, whereas at -109 I lose -4541u with the same 1.1u bet size. Beating the line in this example does not produce a profit in the long run.
Only if a bettor beats a widely available line like the average closing line often enough and by enough (significant difference), it can be shown that he statistically will have a better than 50% chance to make a long term profit.