Hey Joe:
Remember that it is not Trump running on his own, this is Trump "winning" on his own. From that standpoint, I believe 400-1 is even too low. The machine just is not in place for a third party candidate to finish 2nd in a general election right now, much less actually win. So I am actively trying to find a No on that proposition if it can be played on credit (the problem with playing a post-up is that the rate of return, given the length of the wager, is not worthwhile).