Point Blank – July 31
On Cueto, the GABP, and Home/Away adjustments…C. C. Sabathia is becoming consistent, in some random categories…The Dodgers may not necessarily have an ace up their sleeve tonight…
Johnny Cueto begins a new chapter of his MLB career tonight, donning only the second uniform he has worn in eight seasons. As part of that we also get to sort through what will be a most fascinating case study in the setting of ratings for Home/Away performances, and go to the essence of what those ratings are about – how much of this really is about the comforts of home, and how much about the particulars of a given ballpark. In Cueto’s case, it is not easy – the Great American Ballpark, which is not a pitcher-friendly place, has truly been Home Sweet Home for him.
Let’s start by taking a look at Cueto’s splits over the last five seasons -
W/L ERA BB/9 K/9
GABP 32-10 1.96 1.9 8.5
Others 28-21 2.99 2.6 6.7
No, you do not need to remind me that personal W/L is not a valued statistic, except that in this case it may be – the confidence level of a pitcher when he takes the mound is a significant issue, and Cueto’s remarkable win percentage in that ballpark may have been a catalyst for him to perform even better. But now back to part of the conundrum – there is nothing unique about the dimensions in Cincinnati that should play to Cueto’s skill set so strongly. In the five seasons he was putting that run together, the GABP rated #10 on the Park Factors scale, significantly above average in terms of offensive production. Yet when you look at the command charts, those detailing walks and strikeouts, you can see major differences. Cueto attacked the strike zone with far more confidence from that mound, and that makes the adjustments with him in a Royal uniform a bit delicate.
Where is the starting point for Cueto? Is it his overall counts, or because of the weight of GABP on his numbers, should one focus more on how he has fared on the road? The difference is a significant one. Is there a particular positive that he felt because he was enjoying the comforts of home, sleeping in his own bed and maintaining routines, or was it really about that ballpark?
Cueto is brought forward first because of the unique specifics, but there are two other good examples of how you will need to carefully work with personal statistics going forward – Mike Leake and Cole Hamels. They have something in common with Cueto that is becoming rare – over 1,000 career innings, but all with the same team. It means that every pitch on their “home” charts has been thrown in the same ballpark, which raises the issue of how much going forward we attribute to their home games, as opposed to rating their performances in each park. Remember that all of the major stat sites out there will record lifetime Home/Away by clustering all games into the home cycle, regardless of what the venue was. Here are the counts for those three -
Home Away
Cueto 639.1 699.2
Leake 516 512.1
Hamels 948.2 981.1
As such, their previous home/away splits had merit, because of the unique samples. Not anymore. You can also drop down the charts to note that Mike Fiers and Alex Wood have also thrown all of their home pitches from the same mound, but with neither of them having reached 400 MLB innings yet, their samples will be easier to work around going forward.
By the way, note that Leake’s splits were 4.31 at the GABP and 3.43 at all others, which is actually more logical than Cueto’s. Should one shade his overall rating more towards those road outings? Yes. And then the next step – Leake has worked to a 4-0/2.59 at AT&T Park. At some point does the handicapper merge that into his “Home” chart? It is an inexact science, and when science is inexact it can sometimes be labeled as art. The truth is that there are no easy answers, but the fact that the markets are forced to make assumptions can open some pathways to success.
As always, be careful what you file away when information is spread about. You are likely to read that David Price is 7-0 at the Rogers Centre, his new home, but take that with a grain of salt – his ERA from that mound is 3.86, compared to a 3.10 at all other venues, and he has allowed 1.7 HR/9 there, more than double the .8 of everywhere else. Yes, facing the power of the Blue Jays is a part of that, which also contributes to making all of this even more inexact.
About Last Night…
C.C. Sabathia is developing into a rather consistent performer, but one that some of the metrics will struggle with. His command was good against Texas, with only one BB of the 24 batters faced, but a guy that has worked high in the strike zone throughout his career is having the ball stung pretty hard when the opposition makes contact. His SwS% is down to a career-low 8.8, off of a 10.7 norm, and it is what is happening when that contact is made that must be noted, with an * from Thursday that you need to adjust for.
At 117 innings, Sabathia is tagged with a .330 BABIP and a 19.4 HR/FB ratio. Ordinarily those counts scream for regression, and the latter category in particular is confusing some analysts – if you use xFIP, which neutralizes those HRs to league average, he checks in at 3.65, nearly two full runs below his 5.54 ERA. But what if regression is not necessarily going to happen? What if this is the natural progression of contact being made on pitches high in the zone that simply do not have the steam they once did? In his injury-shortened 2014 season Sabathia had a .350 BABIP and a 23.3 HR/FB rate. Now the two-year sample is adding up, and it is meaningful.
For those of you that keep your own stats, where you do need to make an adjustment is for Ryan Rua’s inside-the-park home run. The proper grade for that pitch is merely a single, the other three bases more a result of baseball geometry, than anything Sabathia did wrong or Rua did right.
In the Sights…
Clayton Kershaw’s last three starts rival any trio in MLB history, a 3-0/0.00 in which he has struck out 38 batters without allowing a single walk. But every bit of that has been well-documented, to the point at which it is fully in tonight’s price, and on an evening in which he may not be at his best, #929 LA Angels Run Line brings value.
First perspective is needed on that Kershaw run, because the quality of competition was not high – he shut out the Phillies in early July at home when they were in their pre-break doldrums, then handled injury-riddled Nationals and Mets lineups on the road. But now he is starting for only the fourth time in 28 days, and also having been pushed back because of a hip injury, the details of which you can read about here. Even if he is on his game there are some guys in the Angel lineup that will not back down, with the Trout/Pujols combination 11-23 with five doubles against him, while also drawing six walks for a healthy OBP.
Meanwhile Hector Santiago brings none of the sex appeal of Kerhsaw, but he is throwing strikes (a career-best 2.9 BB/9) and battling to keep the Angels in games – they are 17-3 with a +1.5 attached to his 20 starts. With Justin Turner out again the Dodgers lose a key bat against a lefty, and will be hard-pressed to establish any breathing room in this one.
(UPDATING - Looks like no action for us in Chavez Ravine tonight. Zack Greinke will get the start, with Kershaw pushed back at least one more day. A shame, because that lent more credence to the notion that he might not be right just yet.)
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)