Point Blank – July 30
Time to put on the NFL shoulder pads…Are we still Haranguing Harang...Is Yovani Gallardo turning into a pumpkin?
There have been a lot of questions asked over the past couple of months about preparation for the NFL season, and unfortunately the answers are not terribly helpful. I do not begin my 2015 work until the MLB All Star break, and even then it is taking a step backward to make sure there is the proper footing for adding new information – the results from each team are reviewed again, to isolate factors that were emerging over the course of the season, and looking back to see when most of them could have been anticipated is a valuable process.
In truth, there are other factors in the way in the spring and early summer – the NBA playoffs provide a significant amount of opportunity, and those of you that have been reading faithfully each day are aware of how deep the probe goes inside of the diamond mines for baseball edges. That pace changes today, however – NFL training camps are opening now, and that means time to get to work in earnest.
Why not begin earlier, to take advantage of Team Win Totals when they hit the board? Because the guys that focus on that prop are awfully good, and it would mean severely curtailing NCAA hoops, and the NBA playoffs or MLB, to have any chance to compete in that market. Since it is a limited one in terms of bet size, that makes no sense. And while many of you will still be making that a part of your processes over the next month, be sure to check how far some of the lines have moved before you plunge. On most MLB days you might not dream of playing on a team after a 30-cent move, yet I still talk to bookmakers that that tell me they write limit bets on Team Win Totals after those kind of adjustments. There is no such thing as being fashionably late for this party.
Why not begin when the pre-season magazines hit the shelves? Because I actually don’t read many of them; especially in this media age. By the time training camp begins many of the team previews are already a bit stale. For those that have the time to devote to daily reading around this time the true process can begin, and I set up a work flow that creates that time. The necessary practice of watching MLB games closely can slow down a bit at this stage; when there are starting pitchers with 15 or more outings going head-to-head, there is not nearly as much that can be learned. So evenings with multiple games on bring a little lesser focus, and there is plenty of NFL reading going on as the MLB games play out.
Here is the key – much like recommendations for NCAA team research, I prefer to see the info unfolding from as close to the sources as possible, and not someone sitting at a desk thousands of miles away. With the NFL having such media popularity, training camps are covered in minute detail, and that means a chance to get the info as things are unfolding, instead of what someone was projected months ago. Obviously sorting through the reports each day is a daunting challenge, but it is made much easier by one particularly valuable resource – The Red Zone.Those links to the daily practice reports save an enormous amount of time from tracking across various media outlets, and it remains a prime go-to place throughout the season. You do not have to worry about missing a day or two because all articles go into archive, and even those of you that lack the time I have for a deep plunge each day should still find a few moments to scan through the headlines. This is going go give you a valuable look under the hood of each team, and is an excellent process in terms of knowing them well enough to make adjustments as the season unfolds.
Are you looking for a deeper dive into the analysis pool? Then head to Football Outsiders, a valuable source throughout the season, and one that also will have the full version of the 2015 Almanac available by the middle of next week. You want that. Download the PSF file and you can access it across multiple devices, with having a copy on your smartphone bringing the ability to maximize time by reading while you are waiting for a barista to make your coffee. Also bringing both fresh content and useful analysis is Pro Football Focus another site that you will want to be referring to all season.
The key is to set the proper goals and absorb the information slowly. This is not about knocking the books dead in the opening week, but instead developing the proper feel for each team so that when the tide is changing throughout the course of the season, you can anticipate the timing of the ebbs and flows.
The return of Aaron Harang
Back on June 9 there was a sense of timing to being to exploit a veteran pitcher that had been getting better outcomes than his pitches deserved through the first two months of the season, allowing for the play on words of “Time to Harangue Harang”. It led to five straight “In the Sights…” cashes, either Over or against the Phillies, and Aaron Harang turned in an 0-5/8.68 through the cycle. Having greatly benefitted from a bunch of fly-ball outs leading up to the stretch, with only four HRs over 78 IP, it was eight in 28 across those five games. Now he is back, but keeping the same portfolio sentiments in play may not be the Thursday move.
First there is the real question over whether it was baseball catching up to him, or how much of his ineffectiveness was a foot injury. I believe it was more baseball doing its thing, and note that his 8.1 percent ratio of HR/FB is still below his career 10.1. His 35.7 GB% is his lowest since 2009, so the fly balls that did not carry in the cooler April/May games simply had a little more charge in them as summer arrived. He may indeed be back to full health, but full health may not be anything special, except for one aspect – instead of giving Harang a rehab start the Phillies are getting him into the rotation for one last start before the trade deadline. That can matter in terms of his focus tonight – he is a veteran of 369 MLB starts and over 2,200 innings, and the chance to be on a contender can certainly impact his psyche.
There is also a difficult flip side to deal with – it is not easy making the Atlanta offense work in any kind of equation. The Braves are mired in a dismal 4-13 slump, one in which they have been held to three runs or less 13 times, and three of the four wins came because of their own pitching, not their hitting, 3-2 over St. Louis, 4-3 over the Dodgers and 4-2 over the Cubs. The other win came when Los Angeles was forced to send Brandon Beachy to the mound, so put an * next to it. In going 1-5 on the current road trip, the Braves have only plated nine runs.
Consider the plight of Shelby Miller – he has worked to a solid 2.76 over his last seven starts, in five of them allowing one earned run or none. Atlanta went 0-7 in those games. As such, like many scouts for teams looking for another veteran arm, I will only be watching Harang tonight, not investing.
In the Sights…
The markets are taking one setting in what I believe is the wrong direction this morning, with #969 NY Yankees now having dropped all the way to -135. That means time to get in play against the stale numbers of Yovani Gallardo, who has seen the clock strike midnight after what had been a Cinderella 2015 opening.
Gallardo sports a solid 3.19 allowance for the full season, quite a surprise after his stuff had appeared to be flattening out with the Brewers, with six consecutive seasons of 180 IP or more seeming to take a toll. There was even that memorable run of 33 consecutive innings without allowing a run. But the truth is that Gallardo has not really found any kind of career renewal, and to put this season into perspective let’s take a look at how his stuff compares to 2014:
K/9 BB/9 GB% SwS%
2014 6.8 2.5 50.8 7.0
2015 6.2 3.4 50.1 6.7
He has actually been a bit worse across each of those categories. So why has the bottom line been so strong? Because his HR/FB rate is sitting at 6.8 percent, his lowest since 6.6 as a rookie in 2007. Gallardo’s career is 10.9 in the category, and the last four seasons were 12.7, 14.9, 11.9 and 12.1. As such, xFIP, which adjusts the HR/FB rate to league average, rates him at 4.20. In other words, a below average pitcher.
In yesterday’s lead take there was a discussion on how Chris Tillman’s current form was much more important than his full-season numbers. I believe Gallardo is a similar case, but in the opposite direction – in his first two starts since the All Star break he has been racked for 10 runs in only eight innings, with 15 hits allowed, and more walks (six) than strikeouts (four). His Ks have not topped his BB count in any of five July starts, an 18/13 tally in the wrong direction. That lack of command will be a major headache against a patient Yankee lineup, and set Gallardo up for another bad evening.
(UPDATING - I: The Yankees are going to scratch Michael Pineda for CC Sabathia. The best way to play will be determined once the new line is set.)
(UPDATING - II: With Sabathia on the hill there is First Half Over 5 available, and that is the best fit. Being moved up a day won't help him regain his touch, with far too many hard hit balls coming from his offerings).
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