Point Blank – May 22
Out West, the MVP’s, Were (Playoff Passages #31)…Meanwhile it is about “pace” in the East…The Astros won’t maintain this road orbit…
On a night on which Stephen Curry and James Harden put forth a dazzling offensive show, combining for 71 of the 197 game points despite only taking 42 field goal attempts and 13 free throw tries, perhaps it was ironic that the end-game came down to those two not launching a jumper on the final possession, but instead scrambling on the floor for a loose ball. For outside of the finesse from those two it really was what Steve Kerr called “More of a street fight”. And Kerr’s Warriors escaped victoriously through the tussle, barely.
Houston had the energy and grit to win, but not the polish. The Rockets had seven more field goal attempts and six more tries at the free throw line, but players other than Harden were 26-63 and 4-9 on those attempts. It negated a brilliant showing by their leader, one that dinged the pocket personally, but created an even higher level of respect for his game. A prime theme in breaking down this series was the fact that Golden State could rotate several quality defenders against him, and in truth the defense has not been bad. Harden has simply been better, scoring 38 points last night despite precious few open shots, and through two games it has been a rather remarkable efficiency of 66 points on only 41 FG and 16 FT attempts. He also had 10 rebounds, with nine assists vs. just two turnovers, along with three steals, in the best individual game from anyone in this year’s playoffs so far.
Curry was not far behind, netting his 33 points on only 21 FG and three FT attempts. The fact that he can get good shots was not unexpected, given the defensive limitations of the Houston back-court, and when the Warriors took care of the ball there were open looks for others as well – it was a 53.2 percent night, with 31 assists. It is most rare for a team to shoot that well, with so many dishes, and not reach 100, but they did turn the ball over 16 times, including six from Curry. The Houston defense was much like the Houston offense – the energy was there, but enough polish was missing to leave a one-point smudge on the table.
It did not have to be that way. On the final Golden State possession the Rockets defended well, Harrison Barnes being forced to miss a contested drive to the basket, and Harden had plenty of time to push the ball up the court and get into something. You will read some criticisms of Kevin McHale for not calling a time out in that setting, but credit McHale for doing the right thing, seeing what many in the Sports Mediaverse apparently did not – “When we got the rebound, someone fell down for them … and someone was out of bounds. I could draw up a lot of plays, and it was not going to be one guy lying on his back and one guy out of bounds. I just let him go.” It did not work, but the fact that McHale’s team was in position to win speaks volumes.
This gets interesting for the marketplace now. The Warriors were overwhelming favorites when the series tipped off, in the -900 range, but have won the first two games by collectively less than the home court advantage. And consider the +/- for the Rockets starters through those games –
Minutes +/-
Harden 82:09 +9
Terry 62:34 +4
Ariza 72:58 +3
Smith 48:13 -14
Howard 66:15 0
Outside of Smith’s awful play, which is rightfully leading to a diminished role (expect to see even more from Terrence Jones as the series shifts to Houston), the Rocket starters have played at a level at which they should be the favorite’s for Game #3. That would require a major shift in the marketplace, something that is not going to happen. And it does bring a major handicapping conundrum – while Houston has played well enough to be enticing as a home underdog for Saturday, the pointspread category brings issues with it. The Rockets have shown that they can absolutely scrap around and compete with the Warriors, but what about that last bit of basketball savvy needed to close it out and actually win? Those last two home games against the Clippers were impressive triumphs by a combined 33 points. It is what they are capable of athletically. But can they be trusted to finish against this class of competition when it is close?
In the Sights, NBA…
It should come as no surprise to those that have been following along that #508 Atlanta Under makes the list tonight. There was a lot of detail both previewing that concept in the Wednesday column, and then reviewing it yesterday (full archive at the bottom of the page), and while the current price is lower than it was for game #1, it still leaves value.
The main key is one of tempo. Neither side is going to find many easy shots early in the clock, largely because these particular casts are not going to take them. Kyle Korver is the only real “first touch” shooter in the Atlanta lineup, and he appears to be worn down. Meanwhile Kyrie Irving or LeBron James can shoot on the first touch of a possession for Cleveland, but Irving’s abilities to do that have become limited, and LeBron is as much interested in balancing the floor than launching quickly. If any other Cavalier gets the ball early in the clock, it is going back out to Irving or James for a re-set.
Naturally longer offensive possessions help an Under by reducing opportunities, but another key is that they limit fast breaks as well – smart teams get in the proper position to be able to transition to defense as the clock winds down. As such, it was important to note the Wednesday pacing, with the game playing to the equivalent of 92.5 possessions per team. No one played slower than the Jazz this season, yet they were at 92.8. That puts this matchup into perspective, as does the fact that the Cleveland defense continues to play at a higher level than the markets have been able to appreciate. At 196 or better, value exists.
In the Sights, MLB…
Yesterday’s post-column thread brought up a discussion of Houston/Detroit, and tonight’s price calls for a continuation of it. The Astros do indeed bring enough pieces to be legitimate this season, especially an offense built to attack the left-field porch in Minute Made Park. But their 12-5 getaway in road games is something that they are not going to maintain. At home, the Houston offense has been producing a HR/FB rate of 18.8 percent, and Minute Made has played #2 in the Major’s for HR rate. But on the road it has been just a 12.9 for the Astros in that same category, and that is an issue for an offense that leads the Major’s in road fly ball rate (40.2 percent), and is #27 in road K rate (23.5%).
Now that strong early road opening, and the form of Collin McHugh, gets the Astros into a near pick’em range at Detroit this evening. There is nothing particularly special about the timing to the Tigers, and in fact there is the negative of Joba Chamberlain not available off of three straight days, and Joakim Soria having worked back-to-back (though an afternoon to night transition brings him enough rest to be available). But there is nothing wrong with an LTV (Long Term Value) ticket going into play against Houston. When I see a gradual regression for a team that I want to get involved in, and the prices are fair, I will designate a half unit and play along. Tonight brings such a setting – Alfredo Simon vs. McHugh, with some fatigue from the Detroit bullpen does not rate a full play, but over time this price is favorable enough to be part of the portfolio as the Houston road record swings back towards .500.
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)