As far as longshots, I like TCU.. the defense should be really good again, and the offense has to be better. But looking at their schedule from last year they were like the polar opposite of auburn in terms of luck. 3 point loss at oklahoma 3 point loss in OT to WVU, 2 point loss at K-state, and a 3 point loss to baylor. They were in a lot of close fourth quarter games and just came up short, so with how good the defense already is, a little bit of offense can take them a long way.
Then Va Tech I'm pretty much using the same logic for. The defense I'm expecting to always be solid under Bud foster, and that offense just can't get any worse, but the schedule is such a cake walk. After ohio state in week 2, their hardest games are at UNC, and host miami.... no FSU, no Clemson.. They actually outgained Bama in the opener for what its worth, and while the majority of their wins were close, they weren't blown out by anybody in conference, lost by 3 to duke, 3 to maryland in OT and 7 to BC. then obviously blown out by UCLA, who is obviously in a different conference..