Looking to have a good Saturday after a tough one last week. I didn't find any Power Angles that I liked for this week.
TOP PLAYS
5 UNIT PLAY
Clemson -12.5 over DUKE: Duke had a nice run vs lesser competition but their closing stretch has not been easy as they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and in those two losses they have been outscored by 31 ppg. Now they face a Clemson team that is on a roll having have won their last 4 in a row and each win has been by at least 14 points. What's scary for the ACC is that this high powered offense has now been aided by a defense that has allowed just 30 points in their last 2 weeks, compared to allowing 27.3 ppg in their first 6 games. The Clemson offense comes in as one of the better in the ACC, averaging 498 ypg and 41 ppg and will be taking on a Duke defense that is wilting down the stretch, allowing 499.7 ypg and 39.7 ppg in their last 3 games. Their is no way this defense will slow down the Tigers enough to keep this one close. Clemson by 17+ here.
4 UNIT PLAY
Virginia +10.5 over NC STATE: Good spot for the Cavs here as they off a week of rest and catch the Wolfpack off a game with instate rival North Carolina. Since the since their upset of of Florida state, the Wolfpack haven't looked all that great winning by just 2 at Maryland and then falling behind 25-7 to North Carolina, before losing that game late. The Wolfpack comes in ranked 78th overall in defense, allowing 416 ypg and they are 112th in the nation vs the pass, allowing 278 ypg. That pass defense plays right into the hands of the Cavs, who come in with the 32nd ranked passing offense with 279.8 ypg. On the other side we have a State offense that has been very good piling up 429.2 ypg overall (49th) and they have the 18th ranked passing offense in the nation with 306.9 ypg. Difference here is the fact that the Cavs have the 39th ranked passing defense, allowing just 207.5 ypg through the air. The Cavs have the far better defense in this one and will be able to pass on the Wolfpack defense which should enable them to keep this one close. As the Pregame Pros say on the videos all the time... "Give me a team with the better defense getting double digits anytime". The Cavs may just win this one outright.
7 POINT POWER TEASER OF THE WEEK--- Clemson -5.5 & Notre Dame/ Pittsburgh Under 52
3 UNIT PLAYS
EAST CAROLINA +3.5 over Houston: Revenge is a big word for the Pirates in this one as they look for some payback after losing 56-3 to Houston last year and I feel they will get it. Both teams are solid on offense, but the difference here will be a much better ECU defense that has allowed 28.7 ppg and 411.6 ypg, compared to the 450.9 yards per game and 35.3 points that the Cougars have allowed on the year. In their last road game the Cougars allowed a mediocre SM offense to put up 72 points on them. This is a bad defense. ECU is 4-1 against the spread in their last five conference games, 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, and 6-0 against the spread following a loss, plus they are 12-1 ATS as a home dog if they allowed 28+ points in their last game, while Houston is 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record. I smell revenge and an outright win by the Pirates here.
LSU +9 over Alabama: I wanted to make this play a bit higher, but I had gone against the Tide the last two weeks and they burned me so I'll play it a little safe and go with the Tigers as a 3 Unit play here. I really do like this play though. LSU has big revenge on their minds after losing last years Title game to the Tide and what better place to get it than at home, where they have won 22 in a row. We also note that Les Miles is 57-5 SU in his career in night games overall. The Tide do have an edge offensively, especially at the QB slot, but Mettenberger seems to be improving and i have a feeling he will come up with enough big plays to keep his team in this one. The Alabama defense is the the best in the nation, but this LSU defense is just as strong, ranking 3rd overall, 4th against the pass and 9th in points allowed. Alabama's power running game could have a tough time getting going vs this strong LSU run defense that has allowed just 72.6 ypg and 2.8 ypc on the year. This should be a classic game. Very tight with Alabama winning by no more than a FG.
Notre Dame/ Pittsburgh Under 45: This Notre Dame defense proved just how for real they are after last weeks win in Oklahoma and that has allowed their offense to play mistake free football and not take chances, knowing they have that strong defense behind them. The Irish haven't allowed more than 17 points in a game all year and they have played some better offenses than they will face in this one. Sure the Pitt offense has come around of late, but playing Temple and Buffalo the last 2 weeks is a far cry from facing this Notre Dame defense. The Pitt offense has also struggled on the road this year averaging just 14.3 ppg and 338 ypg. The Pitt defense has not been that bad this year as they have allowed just 339.9 ypg and 21.3 ppg on the year and they will not be facing an explosive Irish offense in this one. The Irish offense will once again be conservative knowing that they have a tough defense behind them and that will keep both teams from scoring a bunch of points in this one.
Nebraska/ Michigan State Under 44.5: Michigan State has played just 1 game in their last 7 games in which more than 35 points have been scored. This team has one of the weakest offenses in the Big 10, while also sporting the best defense in the league. Giving you an example of this we see that the Spartans have scored 17 points or less 6 times this year, while they have allowed 19 points or less in 7 of their 8 games played on the year. This is a conservative offense that averages 360 ypg, but just 19 ppg and will be facing a tough Nebraska defense that has allowed just 336 ypg on the year and are off a game in which they gave up just 9 points to a very good Michigan offense. On offense the Huskers are more of a running team and they will have to do plenty of that to keep this very good State defense honest and that will eat plenty of clock. It is really hard to see this game hitting the 40’s.
Kansas/ Baylor Under 71: I know the Baylor defense is very bad, but this Kansas offense has put up just 13.8 ppg in their last 6 games and they haven’t scored more than 17 points in 5 of those 6 games. They are not an explosive offense and should have problems scoring vs this bad Baylor defense. The Baylor offense has been able to score on just about everyone this year but in 2 of their last 3 games they were able to manage just 21 points in each game. The Kansas defense is not terrible, allowing 30.1 ppg on the year and they should come up with enough stops to keep Baylor from hanging 50 on them. This should end up in the low 60’s at most.
7 POINT TEASER--- Alabama/ LSU Under 46.5 & Arizona State +10.5
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
FLORIDA -17 over Missouri
INDIANA -2.5 over Iowa
7 POINT TEASER--- LSU +15.5 & Georgia/ Ole Miss Under 68.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
OHIO STATE -27.5 over Illinois
NAVY -16.5 over FAU
Oklahoma -12 over IOWA STATE