UPDATE 10/6: Teddy Covers tweets that wiseguy money is pouring in on Texas. The line closes Texas -7.5 and -8 in some spots despite the public being on WV. I am holding -6.5 so I am feeling good. Then what happens? West Virginia smashes Texas in the mouth and wins outright. I just lost a huge chunk of my bankroll that I had been building all football season. Wow. Just wow. Barely anyone on West Virginia's roster would even be recruited by Texas yet West Virginia looked like the 5 star program instead of Texas. It is going to be hard to ever bet against Dana Holgerson again.
This one is simple. West Virginia's defense is terrible. The offense had to literally be perfect for West Virginia to beat Baylor. They scored 70 points and didn't cover. The only chance West Virginia has to cover this number against Texas is if their offense is perfect again. It will be good but it won't be perfect.
Buy Texas -6.5
*I will be back with more analysis as the week goes on but wanted to post this so we can get the best number.
**UPDATE: WED, 10-3**
A couple more reasons why I like Texas.
1. Texas' pass rush. West Virginia's offensive line has not had to block a defensive line as freakshly athletic as Texas. Texas will get more pressure on Geno Smith than any team WV has faced so far this season. Smith has had a lot of success standing in the pocket and waiting for his receivers to break free. This likely won't be the case vs Texas.
2. Texas' defensive backs. Texas's dbs are physical and will get in the face of and jam WV's wide receivers. WV's receivers are not used to this. This could throw off the timing of WV's offense of which they rely heavily on. Also Texas' dbs are faster than any of the ones WV has faced. WV's receivers have easily beat their coverage but will have a harder time vs Texas.
These two factors combined will make it hard for West Virginia's offense to put up enough points to overcome their poor play on defense.
UPDATE: Thurs, 10-4
Holgorsen has just announced that Shawne Alston WILL NOT be playing vs Texas. Alston is WV's big physical running back. After sitting out last week, WV was hoping he would be ready to go for Texas but he will not be.
UPDATE: Sat, 10-6
Here is in update regarding players who were uncertain:
Playing: Ryan Clarke rb, Donovan Miles, rb
Not Playing: Shawne Alston rb, Avery Williams cb, Matt Moro s, Travis Bell s