Here's some other notes I did a while back during the AS break. So far, we haven't lost a CFB game this year. A lot of BWaston23 teams here.
Texas—San Antonio Roadrunners: Might well have their first lined game in the schools’ brief history when the play South Alabama. If not then, probably against Georgia State, another fledging football program. THAT should be in interesting game because it pits UTSA coach Larry Coker (yes, him) against GSU coach Bill Curry (yes, him). What strikes me about UTSA is that they return 21 of 22 starters.
Boise State: Why are we jumping to them? Because they return the LEAST amount of starters, THREE. And they’ll get tested right away as they open on a Friday night against (and at) Michigan State, who obviously lost Cousins to the NFL but they themselves only return four starters on offense. But, they return eight on the other side of the ball from a defense that was 10th in the Nation in points allowed, so we’d have to think that the Broncos might have a tough time scoring.
Michigan State: Why not? They may be OK on offense even after losing Cousins as well as B.J. Cunningham and Keyshawn Martin. Andrew Maxwell will take over for Cousins, and although he’s only thrown 51 passes in his college career, he was a top prospect coming out of High School, ranked #8 right behind A.J. McCarron. Their “O” line is perhaps their strength (aside from the D) so it’s quite likely they’ll simply keep the ball on the ground early on, meaning I’d look to unders from this team out of the gate.
Central Michigan: Why go here? Because that’s where the Spartans travel to next, and we always handicap games well in advance, looking for the right numbers. The thing we like here is that CMU returns 8 starters on offense, including quarterback Ryan Radlciffe, who is a Senior this season. They’ll get a tune up game against SEMO before playing MSU, who crushed them in East Lansing last season 45-7. They’ve got most of their “D” back, but that’s a “D” that allowed a ton of points, but it was also the MAC where everyone did! Have to think that this game is really just a shootout, on paper anyway. CMU did have some players kicked off the team (conduct unbecoming, what else) but none of them did or were expected to contribute. They thought they might get Josh Jones, a safety from Walled Lake HS, but he recently committed to Toledo. I guess every MAC school needs defensive players.
Toledo: Why not, we mentioned them last. The 8th highest scoring team in the nation last year, but that was last year. They do bring back QB but that’s about it on offense, and not that they had much of a defense, either, but only four defensive players return from a team that’s got to open their schedule on the road against Arizona AND Wyoming before starting conference play.
Arizona: Well then, here’s where Rich Rodriguez landed, and he has his work cut out for him. Obviously losing Foles from an offense that was able to put up 30 points a game, but to my eye his issues are on defense. They were 107th in the nation in points allowed, but it gets worse because they bring back less than half the defense. I suppose one could look at that as an opportunity and spin it, but I don’t. They do have a somewhat favorable schedule as after the Toledo game they get Oklahoma State and South Carolina State (why?) to come to them before having to travel TO Oregon to probably get their ass kicked again. The Ducks hung 56 on them at home last season. No Foles and no Criner (drafted by the Raiders) probably means no points, Rich-Rod or not.
Oklahoma State: Because we can. OK, no Weeden and no Blackmon. But, they do get to open the season against FCS school Savannah State, which is right in my backyard. Interesting what they’re (SSU) doing in that having never played an FBS school they schedule the Cowboys as well as Florida State. Apparently they’d rather make $1,000,000 losing to two SOMEBODY’S than go 0-2 for nothing to two NOBODY’S. Anyhow, the Cowboys. They don’t bring back much, except most of a defense that allowed 27 points a game, but in that conference that probably isn’t as bad as it may seem. Having said that and given the perception that OSU still has all these weapons, we might look for unders from this team, who after scrimmaging with the Tigers (SSU) travels to Arizona, but we knew that. We’re ALREADY looking for the right numbers in that one, especially since the next game OSU plays is back home against ULL.
Lousiana Lafayette: Who comes to play the Cowboys with eight starters returning on offense, including QB Blaine Gautier, who for as much as they put the ball in the air does not throw many interceptions. Huge win for this program beating SDSU in the Carrier Bowl 32-30 which included Gautier throwing for 470 yards and ULL kicking a 50 yard FG with time expiring to win the game. We had them outright in that game! Oklahoma State beat these guys 61-34 last season, so THIS will be an interesting point spread. Do not be surprised, if ULL plays reasonable against Lamar, if this game isn’t pretty close.
Lamar: We’ll skip the football team, but we like their basketball team only because Pat Knight’s the coach and he really is a chip off the old block.
Oregon: Since we mentioned “Chip” we’ll go out west to GF’s turf for a minute. Well then, they don’t really have a losable game until they travel to USC the first week of November, and if you remember USC beat them in Oregon last season 38-35 so what I would first look at is who they play BEFORE USC. They play at home to Colorado, and I would almost automatically take the Buffs with about four million points. Yes, James and Thomas are gone, but Bennett, Barner, and D’Anthony Thomas are more than capable and because Oregon was so far ahead most every game these guys did get plenty of playing time. Because of the losses of James and Thomas I’d actually think they may be a play ON team early, but sadly enough they’ve got a cupcake schedule as opposed to opening with an LSU this season. They do only return half their defensive starters, so we may see some points scored against them, if in fact the early games are even lined.
Southern Cal: With 15 returning starters including Heisman hopeful Matt Barkley, these guys are going to be a force, especially after the probation. Almost their entire offense is back, including the two top receivers as well as 1,000 yard rusher Curtis McNeal. They return seven starters on defense and really have few stumbling blocks except perhaps that Oregon game. I might look to fade them the week BEFORE that game when they travel to Arizona, if in fact Rich-Rod can get any sort of positive momentum going by then. The downside to doing that is the fact that Arizona put a 48-41 scare into the Trojans in SoCal last season, so perhaps USC doesn’t take them lightly even without Foles and company. It’ll be interesting to see their mindset when they travel to Stanford in week three, even without Luck, since USC lost to them at home in triple OT last season. So, there are some potential ATS landmines here and it’s not for lack of talent.
OK, back to Central Florida and Akron for a minute. B-Watson says Akron will suck. He might be right, but how many points is enough to take a home team on TV on a weeknight against a team that has to play Ohio State the following week? Dunno yet, but UCF does return 8 of 11 starters from a defense that was 9th in the nation in points allowed, but they didn't win a road game and really didn't play and prolific offenses. And they did lose CB Josh Robinson to the NFL (3rd round to the Vikings) However, Godfrey is a year older with two full seasons under his belt, and I suspect they'll just try to use their size advantages on the line and run Harvey and Murray all night long.
But, the Zips offense behind returning QB Clayton Moore just cannot stretch the field. They had exactly one pass over 50 yards all season last year, and he is simply not a rushing threat, and of course took 34 sacks as well. Akron only returns six starters on defense, which cannot be a bad thing since they allowed 38.5 points, or were 116th in the nation in points allowed.
These two teams played three times in the early 2000's and Akron won two (all three ATS). I cannot discount Terry Bowden and what he's done, and will clearly take the points and/or the under.