Game OVER 60 -110 **
I always default to unders, especially in a standalone game like tonight. However, diving into this game more makes me think over.
When looking at Louisilles schedule, Their last 3 opponents are 28, 15, 3 in def YPP. Duke is 122nd. Throw a slower paced BC in there, and you have a cluster of 4, lower scoring, defensive type games. Duke is 122nd in this category. I expect this game to look like the previous 4 games in which they scored, 33,34,31,42.
Duke also is 3rd in plays per game so I believe there will be more opportunity for both sides to go up and down the field.
If you look at defensive points per play, VA is 104 and Wake is 77th, yet Duke managed only 7 points total in those two games. I expect Duke to score against another mediocre defense, rather than assuming we will see another game like that. 29 and 17 for Duke last two games says they are on the upswing offensively.
Both have under trends and I think there is good reason for them listed above. Duke has gone over at home 4/5 and I look for that trend to continue tonight.
31-25 posted.
All the best