Iowa State +3.5 ***
I am posting this early because I have the time and in case this moves to 3. Either way, I think Iowa State wins, but if you follow I want everyone to have the best number.
We are still in Brocktober. Iowa State is now 13-1 in the month of October under Purdy. The one loss? Oklahoma State last year. Considerations from that game:
-the first TD by Ok ST was fluky as an ISU defender went for the tackle and another knocked him off to allow Wallace to break free.
Ok ST also had 50 yard TD off a screen and a 65 yard run up the gut with missed tackles. Uncharacteristic of Iowa State and don't see another game like that for Ok St. Note, when I say uncharacteristic, I mean under Campbell. That was absolutely the norm last year. I will touch on why.
Purdy had 3 INT in the last three drives, all ugly. INT. He admitted he was trying to do too much. Wasn't just him, the OC, Manning took a lot of heat for that game and throughout the season. Still, the game came down to the wire.
What is different this year?
I spoke on it last post, but Iowa State is running a slower paced offense and establishing the run. Purdy threw 62x last year vs Ok ST! You are bound to have mistakes throwing that much. This is allowing ISU to have a better balance with the run game. Hall is an early Heisman candidate and we have a full roster of Campbell recruited linemen. There has been injuries, but you wouldn't know it as the depth is there in ways it has never been here.
This is also very important because it was known that the ISU D just got tired last year. You say a ton of big plays, including many 3rd and longs being converted because they were tired. They have a balance that is working for them this year and that same balance will come in handy in a game that they should win.
Another reason for a better balance and success is Purdy running the ball. His freshman year, they ran it more and effectively. Last year they seemed to avoid running him, again to the dismay of the fans.
2018 in 9 games: 100 for 308
2019 13 games: 93 for 249
While numbers aren't Lamar Jackson level good, the balance is forcing teams to defend it and gives ISU more options offensively.
What about the Ok St side? I think they are over rated and here is why:
They haven't played a strong schedule so far. They played WVU, but many were on WVU the following week due to WVU outgaining Ok ST, but Ok St having a fumble for TD and the following drive WVU fumbling on the Ok st 22.
Ok St also has a win against Kansas on the resume, which can pad stats, but we all know how bad that program is.
ISU has played a much tougher schedule to date. @ TCU and OU. They are more battle tested and proven they can beat teams of their caliber.
What about the QB situation for Ok St. Maybe they play both? That isn't a good thing otherwise everyone would be doing it. They either start a true freshman (give me the top D and elite front 7 in ISU in that match up) or a QB coming off injury. If both, happen to think it will be harder on the offense than ISU. Plus, ISU did play against 2 QB's against TCU so they will be prepared for it. Out of 249 yards passing for Sanders, 121 came on those two busted ISU plays. I don't see that happening, nor Sanders lighting up this defense.
Give me the more established QB and defense in this battle for first in the big twelve.
Texas Tech +3.5 ** Debating whether this makes it to a ***
I get why Vegas made them a home dog, but I don't think they lose this game. Texas Tech played maybe the two toughest defenses in KSU and ISU back to back. They also lost to a more talented Texas team, but it took 15 points and an onside kick to send it to OT for TX. While I like Bowman and think he fits an air raid offense, Columbi is Wells guy. He was thrust into duty with the Bowman injury against KSU, so now he gets to prepare as the starter without staring down KSU or ISU.
Flip that with WVU - They got to play Ok ST with the first start for the true freshman, a sub par Baylor offense trying to find its new identity and a terrible Kansas team. Nothing should impress or inspire you to think this is a top tier team in the country.
The market has adjusted too much given the different circumstances these two teams have been in. Tech gets the outright win, but will play the points.
Georgia Southern +6 **
I initially liked this one, and it was confirmed by a wise man who also likes them. Great spot for Georgia Southern. They run the triple option and going against a team that doesn't defend the run well. Coastal Car gives up 163 on the ground, which is more as they played Ark St who doesn't even try to run the ball.
I wonder what this line would be if they each had a different result against Louisiana. Ga Southern gave up a late drive and last second FG to lose, while CC had the ball last in a back and forth game and won on a FG. The line is shorter if that is switched, or both won or lost.
CC is also ranked. They have the number behind them, which can lead to more public money as while as inflated sense of value on them. Georgia Southern will play them close. This is too many points.
These three will all be part of a dog ML parlay, the question is if I think any others are worth adding.
All the best,
11-2 last 13 2 **posted here on CFB (monitoring all 2 star or higher plays)