My second 4 unit bet posted for this upcoming season. I am on Iowa State +3 and here is why:
First, let's look at some numbers. Iowa State went down to Texas at a +3 dog. This year, we are getting +3 at home. What this line implies is it would be Texas -9 at home. Are we to believe Texas improved by six points over Iowa State from last year to this year? Part of the reason this is a 4 unit bet is based on a the facts Brad Powers points out. For this, it is the idea that Texas beat an unmotivated Georgia team in a bowl game and TX and now many are under the impression they are championship level. I folks are jumping the gun a bit about how we are viewing this team. Conversely, how did Iowa State get worse? If the only thought is that Butler and Montgomery are gone, they still aren't paying attention to this program.
For comparison, Iowa State went into Norman 2 years ago as 28-31 point dogs and won outright with surprise starter Kempt under center. Last year, Iowa state went down to a 10.5-12.5 underdog at home, and this year they are 12.5 @ OU. This tells us two things: The line continues to adjust for Iowa State against the clear cut favorite in the big 12, yet TX is somehow separating themselves from ISU, and they are implying TX is on the same level as OU, which I am not yet ready to buy. Not saying OU is play off worthy, but let's not anoint TX on their level just yet.
Let's also consider two points that I will definitely be discussing during the season. The last two seasons, Iowa State is 8-0 in October. This year, I am predicting another 4-0 with home games vs TCU and Ok St and road games against WVU and Tech. Both road games against teams rebuilding with losses to their programs. A lot of momentum for Iowa State heading into their two games against OU and TX. You can make the argument the game after OU isn't a good spot, but a big thing to consider is TX is going to Ames in mid-November. Guaranteed those TX kids do not want to go to Iowa in winter. The HFA from the crowd and the weather will have an impact.
If we look back to last year, Iowa State was out manned with their true fresh QB. Now, ISU boasts a lot of experience throughout the roster while TX is having to replace a lot on def and the o-line. I believe you won't be getting +3 once the season starts to play out so I will gladly to the points right now.
ADDING: TX/ISU UNDER 65.5
First off, the weather is supposed to be cold and you would think TX in Nov wouldn't be happy to be in Ames. Right now, it is mid 40's and sunny. If it stays this way tomorrow, don't count on the weather having a huge impact on this game. What I do see as a huge impact is how these teams will play.
I look back at the Oklahoma State @ Iowa State game. Had under 65 and it hit. Oklahoma State arguably has a better run game and better offense, although TX has the better QB. This is going to be a similar handicap. Ok St QB Sanders had a couple bad turnover games coming into Ames and he cleaned it up. Elhinger has also had a couple bad turnover games and I don't see him having multiple turnovers this game (ISU can't catch a pick to save their lives anyways...) What I do see from Texas is ball control. They will run and control clock. They don't want Sam throwing picks and ISU 3-3-5 won't allow for the deep ball.
On the other end, Iowa State can move the ball, but I have serious concerns about them making the right play call at the right time to keep drives going and/or scoring. Few big time blunders by the OC against the Sooners last week, including the obvious QB draw and pitch play on the goal line. This coincides with Iowa State utilizing Breece Hall a good deal tomorrow. He is a stud. Reminding everyone he is a four star kid, true freshman, who is an immediate game changer. Iowa State threw it too many times against OK St and I am planning they don't do that again.
Yes, Texas has some guys back on defense and that will make some difference. Even without those guys, Look for Iowa State to win the old fashioned way - fundamental, mistake free football and win this one by keeping Texas in the low 20's.
I have to say, I apologize I can't choose a side in this one since I already have +3. It wouldn't be fair to throw something up knowing I don't have as good of feel for this number. TBH, it feels about right to me. I can see Iowa State up 10 and Texas has the ball. I can see Iowa State up 6 and needing a late FG to ice the game.
Iowa -3
This defense is legit, home field is good. No reason to think Minnesota is that much better. Also, consider Minnesota's schedule. Not good. Reminds me of a few years ago when Iowa ran the table that got destroyed by Christian Mccaffrey.
Indiana +14.5 - Strong trend fading Franklin after losing as a favorite. Also bit of a dream crusher to get the 4 spot and then drop out. Indiana may not win, but I don't think we can assume it will be a blow out.
BOL to everyone with their preseason action.