Texas Tech under 59
Texas Tech under you say? Before you tell me to put down the crack pipe, let me just say this ain't your Uncle's Texas Tech, not with third string QB Jett Duffey at the helm taking over for frosh sensation Alan Bowman who has been sidelined with a collapsed lung. While Kingsbury has been playing it close to the vest in naming a starter for this week, all signs point to Duffey getting the start which leading me to an under play. Not sure why they would risk Bowman against a weak opponent like Kansas when they have much bigger fish to fry on the upcoming schedule including Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas. Tech showed us last week they could win ugly with their defense against TCU while employing a more conservative offense lead by Duffey who lacks the passing acumen of Bowman. “Offensively it just hadn’t been very smooth the last two weeks,” Kingsbury said. “Not the level of execution we expect.” Duffey has shown an inclination to turn the ball over throwing 4 INTs with only 2 TDs thus far which could be an issue as The Jayhawks lead the nation in turnovers gained (11 interceptions and seven fumbles recovered) and in the positive margin, as they lost only five, and it means a margin of 2.13 turnovers/game. I think that's the only way the Red Raiders can lose this game if Duffey throws some picks turning the ball over and I think Kingsbury is smart enough to realize this and therefore will seek a more conservative approach while grinding out a win. On the other side of the ledger, The Jayhawks have a respectable running game with Freshman Pook Williams Jr leading the way, but unfortunately run stop is the strength of Texas Tech’s defense, and the Jayhawks don’t have much of a passing game to keep the Red Raiders honest. Kansas has played two quarterbacks in five games each. They are Peyton Bender and Carter Stanley, and neither has been able to author anything more than a vague gesture of a passing attack. Bender has the better arm of the two and completes passes at a high percentage (61%). However, he passes for only 136 yards per contest, and his longest aerial is 37 yards. Bender has been unable to get anything going downfield, and that makes it tough to sustain drives on the ground. Initially I was drawn to taking the points with Kansas in this game, but I just can't trust them on the road where they have not won a Big 12 game in almost a decade. I do think there is correlation to Kansas plus the points and the under here as well.