Here is what I learned from going to the ISU vs OU game:
-The first game being cancelled screwed up the beginning of this ISU season. Campbell all but admitted he made a mistake heading into the Iowa game:
1. The punting - I maintain shifted momentum against Iowa and cost them the lead and put ISU in a bad spot.
2. The offensive line. They had their 5 starters set, that had practiced those positions all off season, but then switched guys around bc he didn't want the RFr starting @ Iowa. Bc of this, the LT and C really struggled in that game. If he had left the starters originally against Iowa, ISU no doubt has more success. From an All-American ISU Linemen, "It's not like riding a bike. Guys need time to adjust. ISU new line did not have time to adjust before Iowa."
3. Campbell hates night games, especially to an FCS opponent the week before Iowa. If played earlier like Campbell wants/wanted, the game doesn't get cancelled. Put this in the back pocket next year for ISU's first two games. They will play an earlier game one and have to think be ready and happy @ home to Iowa.
4. Everyone here loves Kempt, but Noland is for real. The kid was being recruited by Bama and others, so he has talent. Nobody has heard of him yet. The buzz here is he can stretch the field and make more plays as he is more talented and more mobile than Kempt. Don't be surprised if he takes over the starting job and will help install a quicker offense that Campbell wants to run (see preseason thread about Campbell and play calling.)
Now, moving onto the Akron game. My friend Raider made the point that it is a sandwich game for ISU between OU and TCU. I will respectfully disagree,as this team will be ready for their first win of the season.
Going back to perception is not always reality: How many teams have played their schedule so far? Cancelled game, on the road in rivalry game and then playing OU, a team everyone thinks has a chance to win it all, w/another potential Heisman at QB. Meanwhile, you have teams ranked for beating 3 cupcakes. I maintain this team has a chance to win the big 12, with 1-2 losses in conference.
ISU beat Akron, @ Akron last year 41-14.. Couple key points here: This is the game that pissed Campbell off. Iowa State gave up so many third downs through the air, they switched to the 3-3-5 the next week. I don't see Akron fairing well against a different defense that has stymied much better competition through the air and ISU continues to be one of the best defensively against the run.
Let's talk about Akron's win last week.
1. NW was -21, which implies ISU is 2.5 worse on their home field than NW. Not the case at all.
2. Three defensive td's helped them win, after NW dominated the first half. ISU protects the ball better than any team in the nation. Akron won't get those breaks.
3.I wonder how much Akron's win adjusted the line, if at all? Do people see that final and assume they will keep another one close?
4. IMO, I see Akron on cloud nine from last week and don't think they come in with any sort of energy or motivation matching ISU's.
Remember, ISU ATS runs:
4-0 since sept 2017 as favorite
11-3-2 at home
17-6-2 since Sept 2016.
All numbers under Campbell
Remember, if ISU wins their first game by 30, and plays better and even maybe beats Iowa, this spread has to be a few points higher.
Last but not least, I don't feel comfortable bringing this up in a handicap, but I think this plays a huge emotional role this week. Celia Barquin Arozamena, a nationally ranked golfer with bigger aspirations, was murdered this past week by some worthless human, because, "he felt like it." Disgusting and heartbreaking on so many levels. However, the team has already asked to honor her by wearing yellow, (her favorite color.) The whole crowd, team, staff and community will be behind this team. They will use this to honor this woman and I don't think Akron will , be able to match the emotion from this team and community.
I will be looking at first quarter and first half lines for ISU, but feel confident in laying the points on Saturday.
Isu -18.5 for now.
Other games I am looking into:
TCU -3.5
Tulsa +7
Wash St +3.5
Ga/MO OVER 64 (Thanks to CDiddy)
Purdue +6.5
Ok sT -13
I am like many that wanted to jump on Iowa +3.5 and ML tomorrow night. Everyone knows the rhetoric that Iowa knocks off a top team at home, especially at night. However, couple things to consider:
Ususally Iowa catches a team off guard:
Michigan in 2016 when Iowa was 5-4
Penn St early on last season
Ohio St when Iowa was 5-3.
This game is essentially for the Big Ten West Title. No other team will seem to challenge either of these two. Iowa will not sneak up on Wisky. They will have their full attention.
Wisky lost last week, so some think they aren't as good as we thought, and maybe so. However, they could've been looking ahead to Iowa, but there can't be a decisive adv Iowa when both teams play the same way.
I heard on an Iowa radio show, since 2013, Wisky went to a 3-4 D. Since then, Iowa scores have looked like this:
9
24
10
9
14 (2 defensive tds)
Iowa tries to run the ball, but didn't do well against ISU. No reason to think they have more success against Wisky. That leaves it in the hands of Stanley, who has under performed so far this year. I thought he was over rated coming into the season and would not feel comfortable with him against a good D.
I get that you can say Wisky has problems with injuries, but the more you look at it, the harder it is to see an advantage in the line.
I do really like the UNDER in this game. This looks exactly like the ISU/IA game to me.
BOL to everyone heading into another football weekend.