- 14-5-1 on Dawgs picks YTD
We have come to the end of another Bulldog season. No matter how this one turns out, its been a very profitable year betting the Dawgs once again. But lets try and close this one out in style. Sorry for the length....but it is the last one i get to do this year
How motivated will this Bulldog team be after missing out on the Playoff? Will they lay down like Bama did vs Utah in 2009 in this same stadium? Or, will they remain focused and play hard and close out with a big win like the Bulldogs did vs Hawaii in 2008? If this was a Mark Richt team I would say lay down. But, so far Kirby has had the boys ready to play in each game, save a couple in hostile enviroments--which this one wont be. So, I'm going to have to go with they will be ready.
Big time CB DeAndre Baker looks like hes out....after saying he was in. So the pressure will be on some younger guys to cover these Texas receivers. Texas only averages 150 yards per game on the ground, in the D is optional Big 12. I'm sure Herman will be scheming for ways to test the Dawgs secondary rather than try to run it against a GA D that only allowed 130 yards on the ground in a run heavy(relatively speaking) league.
Jake Fromm will start but, Justin Fields will play-given nothing changes in the next 72 hours with his possible transfer. And my feeling is he will play a lot...and he will be given the opportunity to throw, run, do Justin Fields type things. Kirby wants him to stay at GA. So, my feeling is hes going to get a lot of PT to show him some love. Justin is going to want to push the ball and make plays while hes out there to showcase what he can do. Plus, to get the taste out of his mouth of that horrendous 4th and 11 fake punt situation that he was put in. Terrible decision by Smart on multiple levels.
Since mid October GA has averaged 30ppg vs Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama. All who have better D's than Texas. Texas D would seem to be improved over the last 3 games as they "held" Oklahoma to 39, Kansas to 17 and Iowa State to 10. But come on, Kansas and Iowa States offense is pathetic. I'd be surprised if they had multiple 4 star talent players on those teams much less 5 stars. In those games they only averaged 24 points vs Kansas and Iowa State. They are going to need more than to even compete, much less beat, Georgia.
Georgia will be on the level talent wise as Oklahoma...who Texas gave up 45 and 39 points to this year. Now they did score 48 and 27 vs this "talented" team...but good god Oklahoma is ranked 102nd in yards allowed. Just ahead of North Carolina and just behind Memphis. An Oklahoma team that gives up on average 32 points per game. They are playing a GA team that scored 28 on a top 10 defense in their last game.
I feel the name Texas is keeping this line below 14 points when it should be more like 17.5.This should be a mismatch of epic proportions...if GA comes in focused to prove they belonged in the playoff. Which I think they will. Losing just proves the committee got it right and im sure the staff has been hammering that home. They don't want that. They also have a lot of players coming back next year. One of the youngest teams in the SEC. Many times teams that don't come in focused to bowl games have a lot of juniors and seniors who want be back. That shouldn't be the case for GA. GA lost their DC Mel Tucker to Colorado but the damn HC is one of the best DC's the SEC has ever seen so no drop off there.
I believe the Dawgs are just going to have too much size and speed for them on offense and put up at least 40 like Oklahoma did on them both times. On the other side, Texas will be able to put up 21-24 points just given how many chances they are going to take through the air and the fact Baker is out in this one. At the end of the game though GA will have made enough stops to put 2 TD's between them. Dawgs -13 and over 58
if you like Texas you should really like the Over. Only way Texas keeps this one close is to get into a shootout with GA. I just can’t see Texas keeping GA below 28.
Good luck fellas and Happy New Year!!