It's nearly impossible to imagine ND winning out and not getting in. Of course it helps that their competition keeps doing well.
I'm not sure I agree with your hoping that Penn. St. loses. If OSU loses, they are out - one of the two 1-loss teams ahead of ND - the other being Clemson. The dream scenario would be ND beats NC St. and then NC St. turns around and beats Clemson, making ND the highest rated 1-loss team.
If ND Wins out ... Bama, Geo (or Big 12), Big 10 and ND ... is one scenario.