Years of showcasing my work in the Pregame forums has led to me being considered by some as the top West Virginia University football betting expert in the world. This isn't something I take lightly. In fact it wears on me. I almost decided to walk away. No one wins every game and the pain of failing publicly in front of thousands is a lower low than any high from winning ever produces. In the end though I couldn't quit. I have too much love for the game and too much love for the friends I have made here to pack it in. Posting is a passion for me. It's not about the money. In fact I have turned down offers from other sites to sell picks and even withdrew my name from consideration when Pregame was deciding who the first community capper would be. Some would say that when it comes to West Virginia football there is no room for improvement because I am already at the top. I disagree with this line of thinking. I am always working to get better and I believe posting helps me do that. Laying out your logic for the world to see can be intimidating but in the end it will help you improve. Thank you to my loyal readers who help make that possible.
*Note: The following is a write-up explaining my reasoning for betting the game and is not meant to be a season preview. There are plenty of good sources for season previews out there if you are interested.
For the record I have no problem at all betting against the Mountaineers but on Saturday I will be taking WEST VIRGINIA -19 for several reasons.
1. West Virginia's Defense Is Underrated
West Virginia's defense will be better than people are expecting it to be. Check out these quotes from Dana Holgorsen:
2. West Virginia was unlucky last year
Anyone who watched Dana Holgorsen's pressers last season knows he spent a lot of time complaining about getting the short end of it when it came to turnovers. I checked the stats to see if his grumblings were justified. They were. Big time. West Virginia ranked 127th out of 128 in teams in college football in team fumble recovery percentage, recovering 27.5% of fumbles. Conventional wisdom says that once the ball hits the ground it's a 50/50 coin flip as to which team recovers so look for things to revert back to the mean for West Virginia. Since turnovers are so important in football it's likely West Virginia's bad luck last season had a real impact on their performance and therefore the perception of them heading into this season.
3. West Virginia's Wide Receivers Are Underrated.
West Virginia loses it's top two receivers (Kevin White and Mario Alford) to the NFL and Dana Holgorsen has been getting peppered this offseason over concerns about production from the position. Without trying to sound cocky he has answered by basically saying his system has played a large role in creating the stars at receiver (Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, etc) and I believe him. There are multiple candidates who could potentially put up big numbers including speedster Shelton Gibson, last year's third leading receiver Jordan Thompson, Kevin White's brother Ka'Raun, hyped freshamn Jovan Durante, Daikiel Shorts, and others. An interesting storyline to keep an eye on is Shelton Gibson. Gibson was a track star in high school and could possibly be the fastest player in college football but he has struggled catching balls that he has to come back to (as opposed to catching balls on deep routes). His drop against Alabama last year still sticks out in my mind but with his speed he should do most of his damage on deep balls anyways. Which brings me to my next point......
4. West Virginia's Quarterback Is Underrated
West Virginia loses its starting QB Clint Trickett but his replacement Skyler Howard brings a new skill to the table. The deep ball. In an interview this spring I heard Holgorsen say something to the effect of how Howard's deep ball will bring a new element that they lacked last season. I think this matters a lot considering the air raid system Holgorsen runs as well as Gibson's speed. Plus Howard got some quality experience last season filling in for Trickett who dealt with injuries. In 3 games he threw for 8 tds and 0 interceptions.
(Note for the totals players out there: Holgorsen is on record saying he plans to do more running with the QB this season)
5. Georgia Southern's Inexperience On The Offensive Line Will Really Hurt Them
Georgia Southern loses 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman from last year. This will especially hurt Georgia Southern because they rely so heavily on running. They led college football last year with 363.2 rushing yards per game and now have to replace 5 seniors who saw significant time on the o-line last year.
6. West Virginia Has Had Extra Time To Prepare For Georgia Southern
West Virginia started their game prep weeks ago for Georgia Southern. This helps nullify the element of surprise which would typically be an advantage for Georgia Southern due to their unique offense. Georgia Southern's chances would be better against West Virginia if this was a mid season game and West Virginia only had a few days to prepare.
7. It's A Bad Spot For Georgia Southern
This is a season opening night game in Morgantown and the atmosphere will potentially be overwhelming for Georgia Southern.
8. Georgia Southern's Starting QB Is Suspended For The Game
I probably buried the lead by listing this 8th but yes Georgia Southern's QB is suspended.
This is extra bad for Georgia Southern. They were planning on relying more on their QB this year because of all the holes on the offensive line. This is a quote from their coach Willie Fritz: "We led the nation in rushing, but we were subpar as far as throwing the ball. That's a point of emphasis for us." Ellison's suspension wasn't handed down until late August so all that work on improving over the spring and summer (taking the 1st team reps) will be for naught. Also Georgia Southern's backup QB has only 27 career pass attempts.
Conclusion
Georgia Southern seems to be the trendy team that people are picking to cover in this match-up but for the reasons stated above I think there is value on West Virginia -19.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: WEST VIRGINIA -19
Have a great season everyone!