Thursday Games:
Michigan State
+ Tom Izzo is now 16-12 SU as a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. His 16 wins are the most for any coach in the seeding era (Jim Boeheim, 15).
+ The Spartans are 21-11-1 against the first-half spread this season, including a win against Marquette in 1H and push on moneyline vs. USC. Sparty is 40-26-2 1H ATS in the last two seasons.
+ If Michigan State closes as a favorite, it would be the first team four-plus spots higher in seed differential to be a favorite in the Sweet 16 since 2015, where Michigan State and West Virginia were favorites (Sparty won, WVU lost) — the only two times it’s happened since 2008.
- The Big Ten’s last hope. The conference hasn’t won a title since Michigan State won it all back in 2000.
- Izzo is the only remaining coach in the field who has won a National Championship.
Kansas State
+ Wildcats were 250-1 to win it all in the preseason. Since 2008-09, only four other top-three seeds had odds of 250-1 or longer to win it all in the preseason.
- 2023 3 Kansas State, (in Sweet 16)
- 2016 2 Xavier, 250-1, R32
- 2010 3 New Mexico, 300-1, R32
- 2018 3 Texas Tech, 400-1, E8
- 2018 3 Tennessee, 500-1, R32
+ 2-0 ATS to start March Madness, and they are 23-11 ATS this season — the best ATS percentage for any team still in the tournament.
+ Kansas State has excelled as a favorite going 14-3 ATS in lined games, but in toss-up games (3-point spread or less), it’s just 3-6 ATS.
+ Kansas State last made a Final Four back in 1964. Jerome Tang became the first Kansas State head coach to advance to the Sweet 16 in his first season with the school.
Arkansas
+ In Eric Musselman’s 15 NCAA Tournament games, the under is 10-4-1 and the first-half under is 11-4. Both Arkansas wins went under the total in the NCAA Tournament this year.
+ 8- or 9-seeds in the Sweet 16 are 18-9 SU and 18-8-1 ATS.
+ Arkansas knows its role under Musselman in the NCAA Tournament:
- Favorite: 5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS
- Underdog: 5-3 SU/ATS
+ Do We have a chance at new blood? Unless Michigan State, UCLA, Arkansas or Connecticut win, we’ll have a champion that hasn’t won a national championship either ever or in the last 30 years.
- Arkansas this weekend became the fourth team to ever defeat the 1-seed in their own region in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. The other three teams made at least one National Championship game.
- 1988-90 Duke
- 2006-07 UCLA
- 2010-11 Butler
- 2022-23 Arkansas
Connecticut
- It was a heck of a weekend for the Big East, going 7-2 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Playing all their games on Friday and Sunday, the Big East was profitable ATS on both days of the tourney.
- Dan Hurley has coached in eight NCAA Tournament games in his career, and the over is 6-2 in those contests.
- The Huskies are Sweet 16-bound for the first time since 2014.
In their last five Sweet 16 trips: five Elite Eights, four Final Fours and three National Championships.
+ Arkansas and Connecticut will be meeting for the first time since the 2017 Phil Knight Invitational, where Arkansas beat UConn, 102-67, their worst loss since 1977.
Florida Atlantic
- Florida Atlantic is 1-1 ATS in March Madness, but overall, it’s 22-11-1 ATS this season, the second-best ATS win percentage for any team left in March Madness (behind Kansas State).
- The Owls have won nine consecutive games straight up entering the Sweet 16 against Tennessee, which is just on a short two-game win streak after losing in the SEC Tournament. Since 2005, teams on a nine-plus game SU win streak, facing a team on just a two-game win streak in the Sweet 16 are 18-7 ATS.
- Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season. No team seeded higher than a 5 has entered the Sweet 16 with a better win percentage all-time. Their nine-game SU win streak is the second-longest left in the tournament behind Gonzaga’s 11-game SU win streak.
Tennessee
+ Teams love to beat Duke, but what they do after beating Duke sometimes is the question. Since 2012, teams are 2-6 SU and ATS the round after beating Duke in the tournament.
+ The Volunteers defense is top-notch. This is the first time a Rick Barnes team allowed under 60 points in consecutive tourney games since 2006 with Texas in Round 64 and Round 32. That Texas team went to the Elite Eight.
+ Both Tennessee wins went under the total in the NCAA Tournament. In Barnes’ last three trips to the Sweet 16, all three games went over the total.
+ Rick Barnes officially got off the schneid with the win and cover over Duke. Barnes is 20-33 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, with a near-even 27-26 straight-up record.
Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in his past 17 NCAA Tournament games, including games with Tennessee and Texas. That makes him the least profitable coach ATS in the tourney, per our Bet Labs database (since 2005).
- As listed above, Barnes struggles ATS on long prep. He’s the only coach of the 16 remaining in the field to be below .500 ATS on 4-6 days rest, which is the prep between the Round of 32 and Sweet 16 games.
Gonzaga
- Gonzaga was No. 2 in the AP Preseason poll, the highest-ranked team remaining.
Each Sweet 16 teams preseason AP Rankings (+ their seed ranking entering the NCAA Tournament):
- 2. Gonzaga (10)
- 3. Houston (2)
- 8. UCLA (5)
- 9. Creighton (22)
- 10. Arkansas (30)
- 11. Tennessee (14)
- 12. Texas (6)
- 19. San Diego State (17)
- 20. Alabama (1)
- 27. Connecticut (13)
- 28. Miami (20)
- 31. Michigan State (26)
- 33. Xavier (12)
- NR Princeton (61)
- NR Florida Atlantic (33)
- NR Kansas State (11)
- If Gonzaga advances to the Elite Eight, Mark Few is 110-93-8 ATS on two days of prep or less, but the Bulldogs are just 3-7 ATS in that spot this season.
+ The over is 37-24-1 in Few’s 62 total NCAA Tournament games coached, including 26-13 in the Round of 32 or later.
+ Gonzaga has been an underdog in the NCAA Tournament just once since the start of the 2016 tourney (26 of 27 games) — the 2017 title game vs. UNC, lost 71-65.
- Gonzaga enters the Sweet 16 against UCLA after failing to cover the spread in both their Round of 64 and Round of 32 games, becoming the 13th team to do so since 2010. Those teams are 6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS in the Sweet 16, and since 2019, they are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS.
(Not counting 2022 Gonzaga-Arkansas, who faced each other)
The only team since 1985 to start an NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and go on to win it all was Arizona in 1997.
UCLA
+ Mick Cronin is 172-189-7 ATS as a favorite — one of the least profitable coaches ATS in Bet Labs, but recently, not so bad. The Bruins are 34-23-2 ATS as a favorite in the last two seasons, including 18-11-1 ATS this season.
+ Overall, Cronin has had tournament success with UCLA, going 9-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.
- Thursday will be exactly 17 years to the day of UCLA-Gonzaga, the Adam Morrison show:
- Historically, Cronin has struggled ATS on three-plus days of prep, going 188-211-8 ATS, but the Bruins have covered three straight in that spot entering the Sweet 16.
- How important is David Singleton to UCLA’s rotation? According to KenPom, he’s in seven of the Bruins’ most-used lineups over their last five games.
+ Both UCLA wins in the NCAA Tournament went over the total. This is the first time in Cronin’s career he has gone over the total in consecutive NCAA Tournament games in the same season.