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1600, Notre Dame (-658) to defeat Youngstown State, 3.29/0.50
2000, St. Mary's CA (-378) to defeat North Texas, 3.78/1.00
2200, Eastern Washington & Hawaii over 140 (-141), 2.82/2.00
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MrC said:ajmallie said:Also since I am commenting can I note how dumb it was to take the purdue ml then take ohio state +14 when they were playing each other. So basically your handicap (if you actually handicap) says I think this game will be close but on the other hand I'm still going to put 14 units to win 1 unit on purdue to win when I think the other team will cover the number. And no I don't follow this stupid thread I just see the emails because I have commented and when I saw the purdue ml and ohio state +14 pick I just shook my head. . We have seven (7) processes for each game (modified slightly for the different sports). Three of them had Purdue winning by 5-7, three had them winning by 6-8 and one had Ohio State pulling the upset. That means we felt the better route was to take Purdue but not cover the spread. We know had O.S.U. won straight up, there would have been a loss on the game but the one process that had them winning, had them playing the near perfect (plus) game. It was an opportunity to cash on the money line and get a dog cover. Ohio State failed to perform as anticipated. It happens. We move forward.
ajmallie said:Also since I am commenting can I note how dumb it was to take the purdue ml then take ohio state +14 when they were playing each other. So basically your handicap (if you actually handicap) says I think this game will be close but on the other hand I'm still going to put 14 units to win 1 unit on purdue to win when I think the other team will cover the number. And no I don't follow this stupid thread I just see the emails because I have commented and when I saw the purdue ml and ohio state +14 pick I just shook my head.
We have seven (7) processes for each game (modified slightly for the different sports). Three of them had Purdue winning by 5-7, three had them winning by 6-8 and one had Ohio State pulling the upset. That means we felt the better route was to take Purdue but not cover the spread. We know had O.S.U. won straight up, there would have been a loss on the game but the one process that had them winning, had them playing the near perfect (plus) game. It was an opportunity to cash on the money line and get a dog cover. Ohio State failed to perform as anticipated. It happens. We move forward.
Let me take a deep breath and be nice because you actually gave me a fair response. I'll show you using your own numbers though why a Purdue ML bet is a losing proposition long term. I see closing line of Purdue -12.5 -1000 ML. To break even on this play you have to win 90.9% of the time.You have three systems telling you they will win by 5-7 and 3 systems telling you 6-8 and 1 system telling you they will lose. There is a chart that converts odds to winning percentage. For teams favored by lets say 6.5 they usually win 72.53% of the time. For teams favored by lets say 8 (The high end of what your 3 systems said they would win by 6-8) those teams win 77% of the time. And your other system showed Ohio State winning.So let me make ALMOST EVERY VARIABLE be in your favor. Lets say your systems are perfect. Your telling me you had 3 systems say Purdue would win by 5-7 3 systems tell you 6-8 and one tell you they would lose. So 1/7 of the time according to your systems Ohio State will win. And the other 6/7 times they are going to win about 75% of the time. Stay with me I know this is confusing but if you have 6 out of 7 systems telling you they will win 75% of the time and 1 out of 7 telling you they will lose 100% of the time. So 86% of your sample is saying they will win 75% of the time. So your sample of 7 systems ends up telling you purdue is going to win this game 64.5% of the time and you decided to put money down on the ML which had a break even point of 90.9%.Thats what I'm talking about man, even when you try to explain it just sounds worse.Heres what a guy with Half a brain should say. You have 7 systems. Every system told you Ohio State would lose by 10 or less OR Win the game and they were a 12.5 point dog. Why didn't you Bet the house on Ohio State. Thats what your "SYSTEMS" were telling you. Instead you bet on Purdue ML with a breakeven point of 90.9% and your systems were telling you they were only gonna win 64.5% of the time. I appreciate you attempting to answer me.......But none of it adds up. I think people just want SOMETHING to make SENSE
Just waiting for Mrc to explain why AJ doesn't understand him or get him. Why can't you understand what I'm saying & the system really works. What don't you understand, let me explain it, it really works. Trust me, I know what I'm talking about. It is really easy why can't you believe me. And so on. Someone flush the toilet, please.
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