Texas Tech +1.5 - 8 units (Yes, I know it is down to 1, still think value and think Tech wins.)
I am kicking myself for not taking Tech +400 before the final four, but as a friend said, "Just win baby."
I will start this with the same thought I had the past 4 games regarding the line and making Tech a dog, especially Michigan and Michigan State: Why?? What makes Vegas favor Virginia? Will the public still flock to Virginia? Are they a team of destiny? I thought so at the beginning of the tournament, but I am not sure how you can come to that conclusion now.
For the fourth straight game, Texas Tech is a dog. They dominated Michigan and the, "superior coach." They wore Gonzaga and the "best team/offense" down and now beat up a Michigan State team that everyone said was tougher, better down low and you can't go against Izzo. I am not sure what else Texas Tech has to do to get a little love.
that said, at this point, I am happy to be getting points with this Tech team.
What do we know about this match up?
-Both teams make their living on the defensive side of the ball, although Tech does not play a pack line D like Virginia. If a talking head says so, they don't really know what they are talking about. Tech keeps you out of the paint, opposite VA.
-Both teams play slow. We know Va plays slower than anyone in the country. This game will be about what you can do with the possessions when you have them. I think Tech has more depth and more shooters in this case. One concern to favor VA is Moretti. This kid is lights out, but looked nervous and struggled against Mich St. I believe he plays better with his family is in town and they left after last weekend. Keep an eye on that match up. Still, he settled down in the second half.
-Virginia, like many of Tech's opponents have received a lot of praise and notoriety through this season. Big bad ACC, east coast coverage, etc. etc.
-Virginia is VERY, VERY fortunate to escape the last two games with wins. They were beat twice and came back from the dead. Meanwhile, Tech, has consistently dominated teams, playing their style of basketball. Neither team changes their style of play, but one of these two teams have been in control of their tournament playing the way they have. I don't think this can be stressed enough. ***********
What about the numbers:
KenPOM adj efficiency:
Virginia - 1
Texas Tech - 4
But, another friend pointed out, Tech has already beaten 6, 3, 2 in this same stat. A win would mean they beat 1,2,3 as they are fourth. Do we think Va is that far above Gonzaga or Mich St? My answer is no.
I will continue to bring this thought up:
Michigan and Mich St play slow, deliberate, tough basketball. Tech controlled those games
Buffalo and Gonzaga play fast, lots of scoring, skilled players. Tech controlled those games
Without going down a rabbit hole with my thoughts, at some point we have to acknowledge this is a tournament. Teams get hot that are under valued. Sometimes there is a team that is too overwhelming, even though the media/public didn't see it coming, (think 2014 UCONN.)
In closing, we have a Tech team, with a TOP FIVE coach in the nation, with a team that is bigger and more physical, who will push around this Va team. I am sure Tech will get discredited a bit with their offense, because the nation will see the "Struggles" of Culver, meanwhile, Tech has a wonderful rotation with Francis and Edwards who know their role and kids who can shoot better than anyone talks about. Love how composed they were last night.
The lone drawback is the status of Tariq Owens.
#1. They played well even with him out against Mich St
#2. IF he doesn't play, another win one for our teammate. He is the emotional leader and will lead whether he plays or not.
All in all, Texas Tech is the better team, more momentum and continues to impress despite everyone discounting them since the Buffalo game.
That is all for now. Will add more thoughts/analysis as I see fit. Feel free to agree or disagree with this assessment.