Biggest bet of the Tournament for myself is on Houston -5.5
We all know the majority of what we heard was Iowa State -5.5 was the correct side over Ohio State. Now we have the same line for this game. I didn't take Ohio State (should've.) If I thought the line was off last game, then the line is more correct to favor a Houston team that does several things better than Iowa State and is more consistent.
Off efficiency:
Houston 28th
Ohio St 157th
Def efficiency:
Houston 5th
Ohio ST 64th.
The other notable stat here is rebounding:
Def:
Houston - 28th, while ISU is 109th
Ohio St is 138th
Off:
Houston 22nd, while ISU is 197th
Ohio St is 205th (8 per game, but had 12 vs ISU.)
Ohio State grabbed 12 offensive boards against ISU and was +7 overall, leading to 12 second chance points. Most of these were in the second half. I really believe they will not have the same success on the boards against Houston
Now, the there were a few reasons I was skeptical about Iowa State this year and in this tournament.
They don't run any offense, they are undersized down low and have been wildly inconsistent. This is the exact opposite of Houston this year.
-Houston has four big men against that play roughly the same amount of minutes. They are all good rebounders and good around the rim. Also important to have depth to through at Wesson. Something ISU didn't have.
-Mentioned above, Houston is very good offensively as well. Houston actually shoots more three's per game than ISU. Iowa State went 6-22 (27%) from three against OSU. I maintain 3 point defense is wildly random, one can assume Houston will have a better shooting day than Iowa State, especially if Houston is dictating tempo, not the other way around.
Two concerns for Ohio State:
-Wesson getting in foul trouble. The refs really let him play on Friday night. I am not complaining or saying anything about the refs, but if they get more strict with the whistle tonight, could be an issue as we know the stark difference of this Ohio St offense without him vs with him.
-If Houston dictates what happens on the defensive side of he ball. Houston leads the nation in effective FG % (42.1) and won't let Ohio St get comfortable in their sets. I think Ohio St really dictated pace of play against Iowa State, but this Houston team will be much better equipped to not let that happen.
In summary, Houston is more consistent and better defensively and on the glass. Iowa State shoot very poorly and I don't see that happening to Houston tonight. Look for another double digit margin in this round of 32.
Other bets today:
Iowa +7.5. 95% of the time, a two seed goes down in the round of 32. 2 seeds are 3/3 so far...But really, it comes down to two teams that are good offensively. In the SEC tournament, no signs of Tenn clamping down defensively. Same against Colgate. Iowa can score with the best of them. Tempted to go ML and looking at the over.
Iowa/Tenn OVER 155.5 - Both teams are efficient at scoring, Def efficiency is clear adv Tenn 72nd vs 204th, but nothing elite. Both play at a faster pace than Cincy and that game got to 151 with the fouls. Expect some late scoring in a closer game than folks expect.
Added Wash +11 - I like the inside game of Washington. Very strong post presence. I also think line may be inflated due to everyone knowing UNC, but no attention has ever been given to Washington .They are solid def, ranking higher than UNC in def efficiency. I know a lot of blow outs yesterday, but this game reminds me of BU/Gonzaga. Wash may not be in a position to win, but can keep it within the number. They have the talent.
BOL today as always