Iowa State -3 - 2 unit bet
I am on record of thinking ISU coach Prohm is not on the same level as every other big 12 coach. Why? Poor adjustments. He doesn't run an offense, he just has a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. When they shoot well, they look really good. He puts emphasis on defense, but the team has struggled plenty on this side of the ball as well.
Folks in Ames have a lot of respect for Scott Drew and this is worrisome, however I believe this outcome will be different.
With all that trouble ISU has gone through, it comes down to who makes their three's and who doesn't. Super simple, I know. There is plenty of X and O's and thoughts about rebounding, but three pointers will be the key. ISU has been awful defensively from three (177th @ 34%, but 47% last three games,) but Baylor has been shooting very poorly from three (201st 33 %, but 26% last three.). But consider this: defensive three point percentage is the third least controlled aspect of the game behind free throws and when the offense decides to shoot. Thus, you can argue there isn't as much to it other than teams have been consistently making shots against ISU. Most players won't shoot unless they are reasonably open. They aren't shooting shots behind their heads. With this is mind, I don't think tomorrow is necessarily a slump buster for Baylor, who is already a below average three point shooting team and they have been worse lately.
So the big factor is whether or not Baylor shoots well from distance tomorrow and my answer is no. I believe Iowa State will continue their consistent shooting from deep, especially after the inspired effort they gave against Texas Tech. I really believe they would've beat anyone in the big 12 that day, with the exception of TTU and Culver.
There has also been a lot said about how Baylor abused ISU on the offensive glass The stats say ISU is a much better defensive rebounding team than Baylor and in general are better than their performance in the first two games against Baylor.
What about the line? The sky has been falling in Ames and everyone is assuming they would lose to Baylor a third time. But despite the two close losses, Vegas pegged Iowa State as the 3 point favorite. I think taking Baylor would be too easy and I think much of the public will assume they'll take the team and points that won twice already. Remember, Baylor has lost three in a row as well so not all is well down South.
Lastly, during senior day speeches, a fan interrupted PRohm as he was addressing the crowd with a snide remark about how ISU has been playing so poor. This angered Prohm and no doubt the players. To me, that can and will be used as a rallying point. ISU has not performed well, especially at Hilton, so this will be a chance to play at Hilton South, with a crowd that no doubt will favor the Clones and they will redeem themselves.
BOL as always to everyone.
Adding WVU first half under 28.5 points.
My thinking is OU was over rated to begin with. I was on WVU last night. They played a highly competitive game and won in dramatic fashion. Now you turn around and play the best defense according to def efficiency in the nation. Tech compared to OU is a HUGE difference. I know the money on the game is on WVU, dropping the line a bit, so if anything, I expect a slower paced game, especially in the first half. WVU will struggle to score against Tech.