NCAAB YTD: 90-83 52% (+0.46u)
2 Unit: 2-2 (-0.2u)
1.5 Unit: 2-2 (-0.24u)
1 Unit: 86-79 (+0.9u)
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Thursday: 3-1 (+1.92u)
Saturday February 11th
Texas +12 -108 (1.08u / 1u)
I have been supporting this team in this role all season long and I see a prime spot to do so again here. 12 is just simple too many for the Cowboys to be laying here against a feisty, hard nosed Texas team. Oklahoma State still really struggles on the defensive end and Texas will be able to score inside the paint as they did in the first match-up which they won 82-79. Texas has been feisty road dogs all season long and come into this game with the mindset that they can win this game outright. The massive edge on the defensive end should keep Texas within this number.
Florida State +1.5 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
I got burned with Florida State in the first match-up with Notre Dame but still believe my handicap was accurate. Florida State dominated that game and the Irish stayed in it due to the fact they were unconscious from 3. The Irishs hot 15/21 from 3 in that game and I’m confident that won’t happen again. Notre Dame has really fallen on tough times and their lack of depth and size has begun to show. After a minor hiccup after a brutal stretch, the Seminoles have regained their form and are coming off 3 blowout wins in a row. The size and athletic advantages in this game are widely in favour of Florida State as we saw in the first match-up. With exception to FT shooting, Florida State holds almost every edge in this matchup. I fully expect the Seminoles depth, size and athleticism to overwhelm Notre Dame over 40 minutes and pick up a nice road win.
TCU +8.5 -108 (1.08u / 1u)
I have a buy sign on TCU right now, I love what Jamie Dixon has done with this horned frogs team. They have won 3 straight games and have shown that they can hang with anybody in the Big 12. On the other side, Baylor has been very good as well but they just aren’t built to be laying this kind of number within the conference. With their snails pace and fairly limited offence it it tough for them to blow teams out by double digits. They only have 2 games that they have won by doubles within the conference. TCU and Jamie Dixon now get a second look at Baylor (Lost 62-53 in the first meeting) and I expect them to be able to make the necessary adjustments to help create some easier looks at the rim. TCU shot poorly in that game, especially from the outside where they were 6/25. This would be a massive resume builder for TCU if they could win this game, and although that is a tall task, I do believe it is possible. This should be a low scoring game with a slow pace which bodes well for TCU in this price range.
Utah -10 -109 (1.09u / 1u)
This is a bet on vs. bet against situation for me. Utah being the bet on team who I think can make some noise down the stretch. Washington being the bet against team who have completely fallen apart. Although it looks like Fultz will suit u for Washington today, this number looks short to me. This is the second of back to back road games for the Huskies who where embarrassed by 15 @ Colorado on Thursday night which was their 6th straight loss. To make matters worse, their Senior leader Malik Dime slapped a student in the face @ Colorado and is suspended indefinitely. Lorenzo Romar has no control over this team and they are a complete fade going forward. Utah took care of Wazzou 74-70, in a game where they came out flat as a pancake. I expect a much better start and a far more focused Utah team tonight. In the first meeting @ Washington, the Utes dominated to the tune of 94-72. Utah rolls here by 15+.
Colorado State -3 -101 (1.01u / 1u)
Pure spot play here for me to fade the Bulldogs. Fresno State is coming off a a brutal 4OT loss @ Wyoming on Wednesday and a tough 3 point loss to SDSU before that. Now they have to go on the road again to face a Colorado State team who has been flying a bit under the radar within the marketplace. This Rams team is 13-6 ATS including covering 5 of their last 6 games. The Bulldogs waxed the Rams in the first meeting this year, giving Colorado State plenty of fuel here to return the favour. It sure does look like Fresno is ripe for the picking here. I just don’t see where the effort and energy comes from for 40 minutes with the Bulldogs. Not to mention, this team has been bad on the road all season long in conference play. They are 2-4 SU & ATS on the road within the Mountain West. The Rams are 4-1 SU & ATS at home in conference play and I expect them to get a solid victory here against a fading and vulnerable Bulldogs team.