NCAAB YTD: 126-119 51% (-1.17u)
2 Unit: 2-2 (-0.2u)
1.5 Unit: 2-3 (-1.84u)
1 Unit: 122-114 (+0.87u)
___________________________________________________
Friday: 0-3 (-3.25u)
Saturday March 4th
Oklahoma State pk -110 (2.2u / 2u) * Best Bet
This is a home run spot for Oklahoma State to pick up a win over the #1 team in the country. Kansas has the Big 12 regular season locked up, as well as the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Oh, and they just had a big come from behind victory on Senior night. They are walking into a hornets nest today at Oklahoma State who has been playing its best basketball of the season. The Cowboys have the offensive firepower to go toe to toe with KU and will go all out to pick up a huge win for their program. OSU has shown they can play with anyone in the Big 12 at anytime, anywhere. They held their own @ Kansas in early January loosing by 7, in a game where they lead by as many as 11 in the first half. This is a horrible spot for Kansas who literally has nothing to gain or lose in this matchup. On the other side, a win here would mean everything to the Cowboys. This would be a major statement win for Brad Underwood who has done a tremendous job in his 1st year at OSU. It would serve as a major boost for the Cowboys heading into the upcoming Big 12 and NCAA tournament. Their offence has been unstoppable in recent weeks and have risen to the 2nd most efficient offence in the country. What makes that even more impressive is that they have faced the most difficult defensive strength of schedule in the nation. Coming into this game, Bill Self is saying all the right things regarding playing time for his starters and playing to win this game. However, Bill Self isn’t stupid, he knows exactly where his team stands and I can’t see him being willing to push Mason, Jackson & the starters near 40 minutes to win a meaningless game. If (and when) OSU opens up a double digit lead in the 2nd half, there is no reason for KU to chase down that lead. If all things were equal, motivation, focus etc. I would say this number is right where it should be. However, I think there are major psychological and situational edges for Oklahoma State in this game. OSU has been an ATS monster this year going 16-8-1 ATS, while KU is a dismal 10-17-1 ATS. Look for Ok-State to get a convincing home victory and send off Forte, Hammonds (& Evans) the right way on senior night.
Vanderbilt +4 -110 (1.1u / 1u)
Vandy has quietly put together a very good second half of the season and are looking for one more statement win heading into the SEC tournament. Vandy has a chance to move to 10-8 in conference with a win here in their season finale. Since an embarrassing 20 point loss @ Missouri, Vandy has won 4 of 5 SU, going 5-0 ATS in the games. Vandy is squarely on the bubble and this is a huge opportunity for them to get a foot in the door. They have had great success against the Gators, winning in Gainesville this season 68-66. Overall, Vandy has won 3 straight in this matchup. The biggest factor behind Vandy’s recent success is the improvement of their defence. They have really turned it up in their last 5 games, holding teams to an average of 61ppg. Vandy had Kentucky on the ropes in their last game in Lexington and should have won hat game outright. As for Florida, I think they would have been a potential Final 4 team if Egbunu didn’t go down to injury. However, that injury leaves them a little bit thin on the inside and with their rotation. I like Vandys size inside and their ability to match up with Florida. Vandy will give Florida all they can handle here and while Florida will be playing with revenge on their mind, this is ultimately a coin flip game. The 4.5 cushion with the desperate team looks like a great wager to me.
Colorado -2 -115 (1.15u / 1u)
The Buffs are finally playing some good basketball and are showing the potential of their talented and experienced roster. Since loosing 7 straight, they have gone 7-3 SU, the only losses being @ Cal, @ Oregon and vs. Utah. They are coming off a blowout home win vs. Stanford and will look to end the regular season with a win vs. Cal and send 4 seniors out with a bang. It has been a disappointing season for Colorado who I expected much more from this season. I would expect a home run effort from them here against a Cal team who I want no part of right now. In their first meeting this season Cal won 77-66 in a game where Xavier Johnson and Wesley Gordon did not play. This is a game where Senior Night really does mean something as White, Johnson, Gordon and Fortune play their last game in Boulder. On the other side, Cal comes into this game licking their wounds after getting embarrassed at Utah just 2 nights ago and have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. The Golden Bears have lost 3 straight road games scoring an average of just 56.3 ppg! Their offence is painful to watch at times and have no desire to support them moving forward, especially away from home. I think Colorado will try to duplicate what Utah did to Cal and push the tempo, forcing the Bears out of their comfort zone. The back to back road games in altitude are never easy, add to that the fact that those games are 2 days apart. Not to mention they are catching a hungry, senior laden Buffs squad at the wrong time. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Cal get rolled again here due to their lack of offensive firepower. I would also look to support the Buffs in the upcoming Pac-12 Tournament catching points vs. the Pac-12 leaders.