NCAAB YTD: 110-108 50% (-5.53u)
2 Unit: 2-2 (-0.2u)
1.5 Unit: 2-3 (-1.84u)
1 Unit: 106-103 (-3.49u)
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Friday: 0-3 (-3.17u)
The Last month has been the toughest stretch of my life with regards to handicapping. It truly has been frustrating and I’m embarrassed at my results in NCAAB this season. However, it has been a good learning experience and I will continue to work my ass off to get back to positive units before the season is over, still lots of basketball left.
Saturday February 25th
Purdue ML -103 (1.03u / 1u)
This one is simple for me, it all comes down to matchup. I see no scenario where Michigan is able to defend the bigs of Purdue. There is no denying that Michigan is playing their best ball of the season right now but this is just a bad matchup for them. The market will react to the “must win, on the bubble” talk with Michigan. Meanwhile, Purdue is just as hungry for wins as they are making a push to try to win the Big 10 regular season title. In terms of efficiency, Purdue ranks 1st in offence and 2nd in defence within the Big 10. Michigan ranks 1st in offence but 12th in defence. This will be there downfall in this game, they give up 51.7% from 2pt range on the defensive end! Swanigan and Hass should have a field day inside and dominate the paint. There is lot of pressure on Michigan in this game fighting for their tournament lives, which works in Purdue's favour as well. Bottom line this is just a bad personal matchup for Michigan, I was ready to lay -2 with Purdue so the pk at -103 is a bonus.
Arkansas ML -121 (1.21u / 1u)
I have been impressed with the Razorbacks recent turnaround within the SEC and I expect their success to continue tonight @ Auburn. Both teams like to get up an down the court and this should be a track meet. Arkansas is coming off 4 straight wins and this team lead with upperclassmen is playing great basketball at this point in time. Auburn has lost 3 of their last 4 games, mainly due to their putrid defence. This Tigers team is very talented, but also very young and it really shows on the defensive end of the floor. I just don’t see Auburn making enough stops to win this game. I trust the upperclassmen of Arkansas to get the job done on the highway here where they have actually had success this year unlike past seasons. Arkansas might put up 100 in this game, give me the Razorbacks to get the win here.
Colorado State ML -118 (1.18u / 1u)
This Rams team s a freight train that I will keep riding. This team has been red hot as of late. They have won and covered 8 of their last 10 games and are an amazing 16-6 ATS this season. I see no reason to step in front of them in this spot here against SDSU who has been less than impressive this season. Their offence (as per usual) has scuffled this season and I don’t think they can keep up with CSU on the scoreboard here tonight. The Rams confidence level is at an all time high and I think the train keeps rolling here. In what should be a competitive game, CSU holds the definitive edge on the offensive end as well as on the FT line. I had this line CSU -4, so this is a cheap price to lay with the Rams in my opinion.
Iowa State -1.5 -120 (1.2u / 1u)
This one means a lot to Iowa State and there have been some great quotes coming from the Cyclones Senior leaders letting it be known that they want this one badly. Baylor has won 5 straight in this series including 2 in a row in Ames. However, I think this is the spot where Iowa State gets some revenge and the seniors get the last laugh. Iowa State has won 4 straight games and have found an inside presence with freshman Solomon Young. He has been going the Cyclones some nice minutes as of late and a presence inside that they have lacked for the entire season. This will be crucial to beating Baylor today who is obviously loaded in the front court. I had put Baylor on fade watch after loosing to Kansas and ensuring that they had no chance of winning the Big 12 title and I’m sticking to it here. While their defence is impressed, their offence at times makes me want to gauge my eyes out. I don’t even know what they are running at times and they will need to score to keep up with Iowa State today. I think this is a great spot to throw power ratings out the window and step in front of Baylor in what is a great situational play on Iowa State.
Miami +3.5 -114 (1.14u / 1u)
The Duke bias in the marketplace is giving us some great value on the Hurricanes who are flying way under the radar right now. The canes have played great without PG Newton who was suspended of the last 3 games, all 3 of which they won. Newton is slated to be back in the line-up today in a revenge game for Miami who had Duke all but beat on the road earlier this season before collapsing in the 2nd half. Yes Duke has a great offence but the defensive performances from Miami as of late have been tremendous. This team is so well coached under Larranaga and really get after it on the defensive end of the floor. I think Miami can have success against this Duke defence which definitely has its flaws. Duke may be the more talented team, but Miami is the tougher team and will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after that heartbreaking collapse @ Duke earlier this season. I had this game lined at a PK, +3,+3.5 is great value.
Texas 1H +4.5 -110 (1.1u / 1u)
A disappointing season for Texas no doubt, but here is their chance to right the ship (at least a little bit). Kansas has wrapped up at least a share of the BIG 12 title and have had a bunch of off court issues come up as of late. I don’t see Kansas having the necessary focus to come into Texas and play well out of the gate. The motivation edge is squarely in Texas’ favour here today. The Longhorns have been off since Monday and will look to make a statement as they to knock off the Jayhawks. Despite their poor record, Texas has been playing hard all season long and have been very good on the defensive end of the floor. They have been great to start out games but have crumbled late due to their youth and the absence of a true point guard. This is a prime spot for Texas to take advantage of a Kansas team who is a bit fat and happy and who has been a disastrous point spread team all season long. I like the Longhorns early in this game and will take the +4.5 in the 1st Half