NCAAB YTD: 70-62 53% (+5.62u)
2 Unit: 2-0 (+4u)
1.5 Unit: 2-1 (+1.38u)
1 Unit: 66-61 (+0.24u)
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Friday: 0-1 (-1.1u)
Saturday January 28th
Kansas +7.5 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
There is just too much value to pass up here with the Jayhawks. Let me start off by saying that I don’t believe either Kansas or Kentucky is as good as the national media thinks they are. That being said, I just don’t trust this young Kentucky team to cover this kind of number against an experienced, tough Kansas Team. I know their depth is an issue with the loss of Carlton Bragg, but I still think the guard play and coaching can keep this game close throughout. If they won it outright I don’t think anyone would be surprised. I just don’t see a 7.5 point difference between this two teams right now, even with the game being in Lexington.
Texas +5.5 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
I like what I have been from this young Longhorn team in recent weeks. I believe that their brutal schedule has toughened them up and they are beginning to show signs that they are figuring things out under coach Smart. They have been battle tested on the road this season. Although they are 0-5 SU in those games, they lost @ Kansas by 12, @ Baylor by 10, @ Iowa State by 9, @ Kansas State by 3 and @ Michigan by 3. In all of those games, they showed toughness and the ability to keep games close with their defence. These road tests will help them here today @ Georgia where they are catching +5.5. They are coming off a confidence boosting win against Oklahoma and face a Bulldogs team who has lost 2 straight. I think people are too focused on these teams records right now and the markets are not fully understanding how much more difficult the conference schedule has been for Texas. I think Texas is the better team here and even after factoring in home court this number is just too high. Wouldn’t shock me in the least to see Texas win this game against a Bulldogs team who will definitely have a hard time scoring in what should be a defensive grinder.
Kansas State +1 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
This is most a gut place for me. I really like this Wildcats squad this year, they have a balanced attack, and have shown that they can go toe to toe with anyone in the big 12. Now they get a big step down in class when they face Tennessee in what is a huge flat spot for the Vols who are coming off their big emotional win against Kentucky. K-State has shown they can go on the road and perform, they won @ Ok-State by 8, lost by 2 @ Kansas, by 1 at Texas Tech, and by 5 @ Iowa State in a game where they could have laid down when they were down big, but battled back. Those are all impressive performances an this is a team flying a bit under the radar right now in the Big 12. There is a common theme today, I’m looking to back Big 12 teams in these match-ups vs. the SEC. I think the Vols will struggle to score here against a most physical, tougher, better coached K-State team who will make a statement today and get this road win.
West Virginia -15 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
Texas A&M has no idea what its going up against today in Morgantown. The Aggies are 296th in the nation in turnover percentage and have turned the ball over on 25.6% of their offensive possessions in SEC play. That is obviously going be an issue here against West Virginia who feats on turnovers. This A&M team is soft an they are going to get bullied here. They have been vulnerable on the road all season and I expect them to get rolled here against the vastly superior Mountaineers.
UNC / Oregon ML Parlay -115 (1.15u / 1u)
I like the match-ups for both of these teams today but it was hard for me to lay the points in each game so I’m going to put them both in a ML parlay. This isn’t something I do often but I see value in this one. UNC’s depth and size should be able to overpower Miami in their match-up. I believe they are the vastly superior team, as I am not a believer in Miami this year whatsoever. This Hurricanes team really struggle to score at times and that is an issue today against the Tar Heels who come at you in waves. As for the Oregon game, its really quite simple for me. I’m not stepping in front of them right now. I also am looking for every reason to fade the Buffaloes. Their defence has been horrible in conference play and Oregon should be able to get whatever they want on the offensive end.