My MLB Handicapping tip is: Know how each starter responds to unusual performances.
For example, a stater allows five-plus walks, or two-plus home runs, or lasts fewer than three innings, has a WHIP of at least two etc.
The start doesn't have to be a bad one, it can be a good one as well. 10-plus strike outs, quality start, two quality starts in a row, allowed two or fewer runs, threw 110-plus pitches, etc.
All of this must be further investigated by considering the site of the starter's previous start, whether they won that game as well as the current site and line.
Here are some examples:
Scott Feldman has produced a team record of 0-15 coming off a start in which he went less than five innings.
Bartolo Colon has produced a team record of 0-14 after allowing 2+ home runs last start.
Wandy Rodriguez has produced a team record of 0-15 in his career when he is off a team win in which he allowed 1- 2 runs in six-plus innings while giving up 6 or fewer hits.
Edwin Jackson has produced a team record of 0-14 if he did not allow a walk last start, as long as he is not a 185-plus favorite.
Brett Myers has produced a team record of 0-12 coming off a start in which he allowed 5-plus runs.
Vance Worley has produced a team record of 8-0 following a start in which he allowed four or fewer hits.
Josh Johnson is 0-10 when is off a road quality start in which the Marlins lost.
Some starters get UP for a team on a winning streak. Felix Hernandez, for example, has produced a team record of 8-0 in his career in the first game of the series vs a team on a 3-7 game winning streak.
BOL this season. We'll be ready.
Dr M.