Unbelievable loss yesterday. Turner had 2 in the first so there was no way he couldn’t get one more in the next 8 innings, right? Wrong, sigh….
0-1 yesterday, 66-64 season
www.pickswise.com/.../
Hunter Brown (HOU) to record a win (-110)
It’s crazy to think that this is near even odds. For Brown to record the win, he needs to do 2 things. One, pitch at least 5 innings. Two, leave the game with the Astros winning and the bullpen not giving up the lead. That shouldn’t be too hard for this game. First of all, Brown has completed 5 innings in 8 straight starts. The right-hander had a rough beginning to the 2024 campaign but has completely turned it around lately. In his first 7 starts: 8.89 ERA, 2.20 WHIP and .356 batting average allowed. Since then: 1.89 ERA, .199 batting average allowed and 29% strikeout rate.
Houston will need to have the lead when Brown exits after 5 innings, and that’s pretty expected based on the pitching matchup. The Astros will be facing Austin Gomber, the Rockies left-hander that has come back to earth after a solid start to the year. In his last 4 starts, Gomber has a 9.68 ERA, a .355 batting average allowed and 5 home runs given up. Plus, he already faced the Astros earlier in the season and surrendered 4 runs, 3 home runs and 6 hits in 7 innings. Since the Astros are priced at -265 to win the game, getting Brown to record the win at near +100 odds feels like a steal.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) over 5.5 strikeouts (-135)
The ace of New York is finally back after a long stint on the injured list. Gerrit Cole made his season debut last week against the Orioles and allowed 2 runs and 3 hits while punching out 5 batters in 4 innings. Cole was limited to just 62 pitches since he’s still working his way back to normal, but my guess is that his pitch count will be around 75 pitches for tonight. That’s more than enough time to record 6 strikeouts against his cross-town rival. Plus, the Mets lineup has seen plenty of Cole in their careers and the strikeout rate is very high. J.D. Martinez, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor have all struggled against the ace. If Cole is able to get through 5 innings, he should be able to record at least 6 strikeouts.