In a f***ing tailspin but we’re gonna pull out a win today.
0-2 yesterday, 45-44 season
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Jared Jones (PIT) and Tarik Skubal (DET) 6+ strikeouts each (-117) FD SGP
My first ever prop article on this platform 2 summers ago was an over 5.5 strikeouts bet on Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal. He cruised past that mark with 9 punch outs in an advantageous spot, but the days of playable 5.5 lines for the Tigers ace are sadly long gone. The southpaw was my preseason Cy Young pick at 20/1, and he is now the odds-on favorite for the award in the American League thanks to a tremendous start. Skubal ranks 87th percentile or better this season in walk rate, xBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, swinging strike rate, and called strike plus whiff rate. His 2.25 ERA is backed by a 2.42 xERA, 2.15 FIP, 2.55 xFIP, and 2.59 SIERA.
Skubal’s 78.4% zone contact rate allowed is the 3rd lowest mark among qualified pitchers, trailing only Cole Ragans and Jared Jones. He gets ahead in counts with regularity, tossing a first-pitch strike at the 3rd highest rate among qualified arms. His high rate of strikes thrown, relatively low pitches per plate appearance for a strikeout heavy arm, and his workload are all traits that allow him to work deeply into ball games. Skubal’s outs recorded line is heavily juiced towards the over on a 17.5 line, implying a strong probability he completes 6 full frames of work or more.
With 6 or more strikeouts in 9 of 10 starts this season and 17 of his last 18 dating back to last year, opponent rarely matters for Skubal with his elite talent. Still, this is a spot I like for the southpaw to perform on paper against a whiff-happy Pirates lineup. Across the last 30 days the Pirates have baseball’s 8th highest strikeout rate against southpaw pitching, and across the entire season they jump to 3rd worse. In those last 30 days Pittsburgh has the 5th lowest zone-contact rate and the highest CSW% of all MLB teams.
As for the aforementioned Jared Jones, the rookie arm for the Pirates has gotten off to a tremendous start to his MLB career. While not as highly touted or physically imposing as his fellow rookie Paul Skenes, Jones has performed like a true ace in the making so far this year. Through his first 10 starts at this level he has posted a 3.05 ERA with a 3.22 xERA, 3.59 FIP, 2.91 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA backing up his success. His 0.97 WHIP sits 10th best in MLB while his strikeout production has been the real headline. Jones sits 95th percentile in both whiff rate and chase rate while leading all qualified pitchers with his 17.9% swinging strike rate. Like Skubal, Jones gets ahead early with first pitch strikes, and he continues to fill up the zone throughout plate appearances as he trusts his stuff to win within the zone.
Jones has failed to record 6 or more strikeouts in 3 of his last 5 starts but has still achieved 7 or more in 7 of 10 starts this season overall. Among his 3 misses, 2 of them were against the same Giants lineup within a 4-week timeframe, and San Francisco has been rather K-averse of late. Even when Jared has failed to eclipse his strikeout total, the swinging strikes have been there, recording a SwStr% of at least 14% in 9/10 starts this year. Jones draws a more favorable matchup this time around against a Tigers lineup with numerous targets littered throughout their lineup.
Detroit has admittedly been performing solidly against right-handed pitching overall across the last 30 days, but their strikeout totals have remained below average in that span. Across the whole season their 100 wRC+ sits right at league average, while their 23.8% K% sits 9th worse. Tonight’s projected lineup features only 1 batter with a K% below 20% against right-handed pitching this season, and the bottom of the order for Detroit is particularly strikeout prone. With his recent workload of 22 or more TBF in 4 straight starts, and this being the first game of a doubleheader, Jones should see his full leash on 6 days of rest.