Was a nice bounce back day, 312. Let’s do it again, all.
3-1 yesterday, 112-93 season. PW went 2-0(63-47 season) while BP went 1-1(61-41 season).
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Caleb Wilfinger
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays: NRFI (-110)
These teams are expected to contend in the American League this season, but only the Rays have lived up to expectations so far. Part of why Toronto was supposed to take the next step was its seemingly improved pitching, but Alek Manoah has not pitched like an ace this season. Despite Manoah’s 5.15 ERA and 6.54 xERA, his struggles have not come in the first inning. In fact, the Toronto “ace” has tossed 7 scoreless opening frames in 10 starts this season. Even against a terrific Rays lineup, I don’t expect Manoah to struggle until the second time through the order. He’ll be opposed by Zach Eflin, who has pitched to an xERA of 2.93 ERA this season and has not surrendered a first inning run over his last 4 starts. I’ll take the NRFI at this discounted number.
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San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-115)
Unlike the other matchup in this column, this matchup between the Padres and Nationals should not feature strong starting pitching. Blake Snell is getting the ball for San Diego, and the left-hander is clearly struggling with consistency this season. Pitching to an xERA of 5.94 on the year and having allowed 6 runs over 4 innings pitched in his last outing, I expect another slow start for Snell in this one. On the other side, Jake Irvin will get the start for the Nationals, and his 6.87 xERA and .395 xWOBA both sit inside the bottom 10 percentile among all qualified starters this season. The Padres lineup came alive in their recent series against the Red Sox and I expect that to carry over into this series against a poor Nationals rotation.
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Paul Mammino 15-14
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees 7:05 ET
Clarke Schmidt takes the ball for the Yankees and the right-hander has been a lot better than his surface numbers show. His ERA is at six but his estimators are showing more of a mid-four ERA pitcher. He gets a ton of K’s and while the walks are a smidge high and he’s allowing more homers than we would like to see but he’s been much better in the last few weeks. He has only allowed one homer in the last twenty innings pitched. He has pitched better at home despite being hit much harder by lefties than righties. The Orioles have several strong left-handed bats at the top of their order but I believe that Schmidt has enough talent to get through the first cleanly.
Kyle Gibson gets the ball for the Orioles and he has been solid in 2023 despite a bit of regression in skills. His strikeouts are down a bit, but the walks and home runs are low. Gibson has allowed a 0.311 wOBA in the first turn through the order and while the Yankees’ offense is certainly top-heavy, Gibson should be able to ensure that the first inning is clean.
Pick: -105
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Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners 9:40 ET
Logan Gilbert has an ERA in the high threes, however, his ERA estimators paint an even rosier picture for the young righty. He carries a double-digit K/9 with an extremely low walk and HR totals. He has been excellent the first time through the order with a wOBA allowed of 0.263. The Athletics offense is well below average with a wRC+ of 93. Gilbert is quietly on his way to becoming one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
JP Sears is getting the ball for Oakland and his numbers, much like Clarke Schmidt’s, are hiding signs of real growth. Sears has a near-elite K/9 with an extremely low walk total. The issue has been the long ball as the lefty is allowing over two HRs/9. The HR issues have been somewhat better in May with a 1.5 HR/9 which has helped his ERA come down significantly. Today he gets to face a Mariners’ offense with a 92 wRC+ against left-handers. This all is lining up fantastically for Sears to post a clean first inning.
Pick: -120