Cubs/Stros also deserves a look today.
2-3 yesterday, 89-78 season. PW went 1-1(50-40 season) while BP went 1-2(50-43 season).
Good luck, guys!
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Kyle Lupas
New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-136)
The downward spiral that is Patrick Corbin has been extensively covered ever since he signed a 6-year, $140 million contract in 2019. Since that contract was signed, Corbin hasn’t just underperformed, he’s been one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball, and I’m not being hyperbolic when saying that. The statistics back it up – Corbin is 18-47 with a 5.72 ERA since the 2020 season. Now to Corbin’s credit, his 4.87 ERA this season is his best mark since 2020, but his 5.61 xERA suggests he’s had good fortune. Other than that, his advanced metrics aren’t great, including career-worsts in both xBA and strikeout rate.
Left-hander David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets today, and by all accounts has looked so bad on the hill he makes Corbin look like the NL Cy Young Award front-runner. Through 7 starts, Peterson owns a 7.68 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP, and has given up 4 earned runs or more in 5 of his outings. He’s given up a 1st inning run in 3 of his last 4 games, and teams have barreled him up for most the season. The Washington Nationals aren’t the scariest lineup in the NL East, but they’re to be respected, especially against left-handed pitching. Entering this series, the Nats are batting .297 off lefties, and they should have some early opportunities against Peterson. I’m fading both starters early in this game and backing the YRFI.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-132)
After 5 starts, Shohei Ohtani carried a 0.64 ERA with 8 hits allowed in 28 innings. He’s finally fallen back to Earth, allowing 12 earned runs over his last 3 starts, bumping his ERA up to 2.74. While he’s given up a couple of runs, many could argue that Ohtani is having a better year on the mound this season than he did after posting a 2.33 ERA in 2022. His walk rate is up to 11%, but his 36.3% strikeout rate and .155 xBA are both career-bests. This appears to be a great spot for Ohtani given the Orioles have only pushed across 2 runs over their last 2 games.
I know it’s difficult to be an advocate for a rookie pitcher trying to get past Mike Trout and Ohtani but hear me out. Grayson Rodriguez is the #1 prospect in the Orioles system for a reason, and his last outing against the Rays was case in point. Rodriguez surrendered 2 solo homers over 5.2 innings against the best offense in baseball, which any team would take. He has above-average strikeout stuff and his last 2 starts at home have gone quite well. This will be a tough test, but I like the rookies chances to at least escape the 1st inning unscathed.
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Paul Mammino 12-13
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox – 7:10 ET
Tanner Houck takes the ball for the Red Sox and his numbers really don’t tell us the full story of his season. His ERA is over 5, but the estimators are more in the 4 range. However, the biggest thing to come from this season is the idea that Houck is best used as a reliever. Houck has allowed a wOBA of 0.182 the first time through the order, which is absolutely ridiculous. That number jumps significantly the second and third times, but for this bet, all we care about is the first time through. Seattle has a below-average offense overall, so this lines up well for Houck.
On the other side of the game is George Kirby, who has seemingly pitched a bit worse than his numbers actually suggest. He has an outrageously low walk rate, something that on the surface seems great but can sometimes mean a pitcher is throwing far too many hittable pitches. He does not get a ton of Ks, so he has to rely on BABIP luck. Kirby has actually been a bit worse the first time through the order as compared to later in the game, but his lack of walks is usually a good formula for a NRFI bet.
Pick: -105
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Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants – 9:45 ET
Alex Wood makes his return to the starting rotation today for the Giants and he’s always been one of my favorite pitchers. His career has been tainted by injuries, but he’s been excellent when healthy. The Phillies have an 87 wRC+ against lefties and have struggled overall as an offense. Wood has always been great the first time through the order, with a 0.283 wOBA allowed in his career. While the walks have been elevated in his first few innings of 2023, he is an excellent pitcher when healthy and he appears to be healthy for now.
The Phillies are sending Bailey Falter to the mound and their left-hander has seemingly regressed from a promising 2022. However, the only real change appears to be a drop in Ks and some really poor LOB luck. His 62.5% LOB% is well below average and should come back to the middle, which will help him come back towards his ERA estimators. Falter has allowed a sub-.300 wOBA the first time through the order in his career. He is also facing a Giants offense with an 83 wRC+ against left-handers. This is a great matchup for Falter to get back on track.
Pick: -105