1-3 yesterday, 21-23 season. PW went 1-1(11-12 season) while BP went 0-2(11-14 season).
Yuck.
Good luck everybody!
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Caleb Wilfinger
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-130)
I targeted the NRFI in Monday’s game between the Marlins and Phillies, and I’m going back to the well for today’s slate. Given how well Jesus Luzardo has been pitching for Miami thus far, you have to lean toward the NRFI when he’s on the mound. There’s no reason to expect anything different on Tuesday, as Luzardo has been rolling — pitching to a 0.71 ERA through his first 12.2 IP while maintaining great advanced metrics as well. The Phillies offense just exploded for a 15-run ourburst on Monday, but they’ve still been massively inconsistent to this point in the season. Look for the Marlins left-hander to stay get started on the right foot once again.
While Luzardo should get off to a quick start, the Marlins offense shouldn’t give Aaron Nola much trouble. Nola hasn’t gotten off to a great start to kick off his 2023 campaign, but his xERA and other advanced metrics show that he is due for some serious positive regression. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Phillies ace will face a Marlins offense that is nothing to write home about, as the Fish continue to have issues generating run support for their pitchers — much like a season ago. I expect Nola to retire the side in the top of the first, so I’ll back a scoreless opening frame in Philadelphia.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: NRFI (-110)
Milwaukee’s offense has been extremely inconsistent over the first couple of weeks, which isn’t a surprise given the Brewers struggles at the dish over the last few seasons. After going scoreless in the desert on Monday, Milwaukee should get a reprieve in theory against Merrill Kelly, who has an xERA of 7.44 through a pair of starts. However, both of those games came against the Dodgers — a team very familiar with Kelly — and Los Angeles was able to get to the right-hander in their second meeting in the span of a week. Considering that the trio at the top of the lineup of Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Wilson Contreras are a combined 2-of-28 against Kelly, I think he gets off to a solid start against the Brewers on Tuesday.
On the other side, Corbin Burns has been abysmal in his first couple of starts this season. However, that’s part of why I believe we’re getting this NRFI at a discount. There’s no reason that the Brewers ace should be this poor over the course of a full season, so I do expect him to be due for some positive regression over the next few starts. The top four hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup are a combined 4-of-18 against Burns, so this is also a team he’s seen success against in his career. Arizona has scored a run in the first inning in each of its last 4 games, but I don’t expect that trend to hold up on Tuesday.
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Austin MacMillan
Phillies vs. Marlins First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-125 @ BetMGM)
This game features a really good pitching matchup, with Aaron Nola going for the Phillies vs. Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. Nola had a rough outing on Opening Day against the Rangers but bounced back to have a nice performance against a tough Yankees lineup in his second start. Nola has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League over the past few seasons, with his 2022 campaign perhaps being his best one in Philadelphia. His advanced metrics were off the charts last year, ranking 80th percentile or better in xBA, K%, chase rate, hard hit %, BB%, and xERA. I like Nola to continue to return to form and have a clean first inning against a Marlins offense that is tied for last in terms of average runs per game.
For the Marlins, Jesus Luzardo is one of the more underrated pitchers in all of MLB. The hard-throwing lefty has had a brilliant start to the 2023 season, going 5.2 innings scoreless in his first start and only surrendering one run in 7 innings in his second start. His average exit velocity, xBA, K%, hard hit %, xSLG, xERA, and whiff % all rank in the 80th percentile or better, which is extremely impressive. I expect this game to be a very low-scoring pitcher’s duel, and I especially don’t like the Phillies’ chances to score in the opening frame against one of the toughest lefties in baseball.
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Rays vs. Red Sox First Inning Under 0.5 Runs (-142 @ FanDuel)
Shane McClanahan, who has been terrific for the Rays in his previous two outings, will get the ball for the Rays in this matchup. McClanahan is 2-0 on the season, having only allowed 2 runs over 12 innings pitched. The young lefty has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, which has resulted in him having sparkling analytics. His xERA, xBA, and xSLG were all above the 80th percentile in 2022. He struck out over 30% of the batters he faced and walked less than 6%, both ranking in the top-20th percentile in the MLB. He’s also exceptional at missing barrels, with his hard hit % and average exit velo both ranking in the top-30th percentile.
McClanahan is as good as they come, and the fact that he’s a lefty will help further neutralize some of the firepower at the top of Boston’s lineup that failed to score any runs in the opening game of this series.
Garrett Whitlock will get the ball for the first time this season for a Boston team that is searching to find reliable pitching options. Whitlock has worn many hats for the Red Sox in his two years with the team as a starter, a reliever, and even a closer. His numbers have been really solid over those two seasons, going a combined 12-6 with a 2.73 ERA. His xERA was in the 78th percentile last year as well, proving that his numbers were no fluke. He walked fewer than 5% of the batters he faced, and his whiff% and K% both ranked in the top-30th percentile in the league.
Whitlock’s experience as a reliever should help in this spot as well, as he’s used to emptying the tank within a few innings, not being relied upon to go deep into games. It took the Rays 8 innings to score their first run in yesterday’s series opener, and I like for Whitlock to navigate through the top of their order without giving up a run on Tuesday.